CAPE

Forgot about that. Go Bengals!

I have worked tirelessly to get those blues up your way, and now maybe purples?!?!! Would be nice to see the Euro come around a bit, and the GFS is just stubborn(and wrong I think with the max precip area/placement) I just hope I can hang on to a little blue here lol. I will take whatever at this point. No complaints.

I think the blues are going to fill-in on the 18z Euro. I would go with 3 for there, maybe more. 1-2 has been my general thinking here, but I will refine it and say an inch. Not going to maximize that jet streak here, and then a second jet develops out of the base of the trough along the coast that gets the coastal going(offshore), so eastern areas are a bit in between it seems for this one. This event will help to invert the inversion.

I think you are in a good spot now. The real sweet spot looks to be a bit to your south/SW, but not sure that's going to shift.

Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point? Its not like there is a cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening.

The tendency for some to anoint king status to one model over another is just silly.

It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING!

Might as well look at all the Mesos at this juncture.

The changes have been pretty subtle though, and all small in scale. Mostly it's minor shifts in the location/duration/strength of the jet streak on the front side of the trough that are going to make the difference between a coating, and maybe 2-3 inches. That works for most here given how things have played out this winter.

Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days.

FV3. Probably an indicator of what the GFS will look like.

NW crew are gonna like the NAM nest.

12k NAM is useless lol. The random blobs and holes shift every run. 3km continues to look steady and good for most.

My local forecast is for a max of 2", which aligns with my thoughts yesterday for my yard, despite what the GFS still shows lol. An inch will get me over 20 for the season. I'll gladly take that.

@WinterWxLuvr I will use the 6z 12km NAM as an example- It is snowing pretty good in your area at this point.

You have to visualize it from the perspective of an air parcel entering the jet. Might help to go to 250 mb wind and hit play or scroll back and forth. Then flip to the precip panels and see what's happening at the surface and when.

The one place that has a better chance for heavier snow is the higher terrain of western VA. Most of the guidance has it, and it seems the upper jet streak, localized vorticity/ terrain effects all coincide there. The favorable location of the right rear quadrant(entrance) of the upper jet is really the key element for producing a period of snow for our area.

The new edition of the NBM reflects the latest trends in the guidance, and would complete the objective of this thread- expansion of the blues to the snow starved areas. It would be nice to see more than a couple inches, but it seems there is a relatively brief opportunity for decent forcing (lift), and the snow will probably be light to moderate in intensity.

If you throw out the GFS, which once again looks a bit lost, and pay no attention to models like the Hrderps that are always wrong, this looks to be what we (or I) thought it would be- An inch or 2, with maybe a few spots hitting 3.

Enjoy the 0z Euro y'all. I imagine it will continue to crush everyone's hopes and dreams for blues.

It is stubborn with expanding the blues. We will just have to give it a few more runs.

My mission to save this quest looks to be on track.