CAPE

We desperately need a moderate Nino with persistent HL blocking next winter. ENSO predicted to go neutral by late Spring, early Summer I believe.

Subtle differences in the character of the ridge and or location of the TPV can make fairly large differences in outcome. They interact. Waves in the atmosphere behave much like waves in the ocean, so if that amplified ridge 'leans' forward or breaks over, it will result in a deeper, more westward dig of the NS energy. The other critical aspect is timing. Again, without a block, the Rossby waves are constantly propagating (progressing), so getting the waves of interest to time up the way we need is more difficult.

18z was the last 'good' operational GFS run and this is why it worked- the NS energy drops in aggressively further west and lifts the southern wave, allowing the developing low to be further nw and gain some latitude as it moves off the coast. The second image below is the 0z(6z looks essentially the same) and the differences are clear. If you compare the two you can see the differences in the character of the ridge (follow the height lines), which influences the the digging NS vorticity.

The 0z runs of the 3 global ensembles still have a storm, a bit further south than we want- just like previous runs. Take a breath. As I said yesterday when the op runs looked 'good'- expect changes as the combo of the amplified ridge and the displaced TPV(and their interaction) is subject to volatility. There were unsurprisingly some generally subtle changes at h5 on the op runs last night that influenced the ultimate(simulated) outcome. The character of the western ridge and the degree to which the TPV lobe drops south were a little different. The ridge didn't 'fold over' so the NS energy on the Euro didn't dig nearly as much and was broader- so no constructive interaction/phase with the southern wave- which was weaker overall as well. GFS was also less aggressive with the vorticity lobe- not digging it as far south or far enough west to scoop the wave ejecting from out west. Instead it drops in behind it too late and kicks it out, then the cold comes in. On we go.

18z EPS looks a bit further south.

I meant for the cape storm. The thur storm has always been toast. Literally The op only goes out to hour 90 at 18z.

I think there is something to this honestly. Better off not going for the easy button. That applies to everything.

Euro 18z? Other thread if you are interested in seeing the 18z Euro op. I'll save you the trouble- you will like it. Rain for your yard.

Ok just finished my cast iron skillet seared grass fed Filet Mignon with a glass of red wine. Medium rare ofc. Lets see what HH EPS looks like.

Not much different than 12z really. It is just missing the shield of lighter precip further NW. If I really cared, I would look at the individual members but right now I have better things to do. Another run to over-analyze in a few hours.

They are pretty useless at range imo, but the masses want to see those blues and purples and pinks.

A tweak or 2 and we are good.

It is a phase but it's positively tilted. Given the ridge axis and the continued progressive nature of the pattern, I'm not sure what you are looking for is in the cards.

Don't forget the ICONIC SUCK and CMC. They are on the suppressed side but its there. And the CMC ens is closer than the op.

That type of interaction is generally want we want. A scoop not a squash, and it needs to happen far enough west. Always timing.

I think its too soon simply because this is all we have to track at this point so there is no reason to start another thread.

It is with the initial piece but then there is yet another hammer coming down lol. Very volatile with the amped up ridge and the TPV shedding off vortices. More fun and games(changes) to come.

Jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We got a storm. Details are for later. SE VA PUMMELEDD!

Its better but might not quite get it done this run. effing WB..

I am on pokey WB but at hour 129 it looks better than 0z run

The southern vort is stronger and further west(good) and we want the NS to come in further west and play nice

Still some work to do, but the idea is there across guidance now. GEFS better.