CAPE

I actually screamed like the Ravens were playing, to cheer for a division rival lol. Just so tired of KC and Mahomes already.

Awesome. Congrats to the Bengals. Exciting young team. What an effort to come back in that building against that team.

One more

What a day for a hike. Nothing like having Arctic cold air in place for multiple days after a snowstorm. Can really get a chance to be out in it and enjoy before it goes to melty slush. A couple photos I took earlier today from Tuckahoe.

Well, it is hard to argue that is the outcome more times than not in these setups, but there is a chance. Euro getting it done at this juncture. The GFS 'dominance' over the Euro thing is mostly hyperbole btw. GFS blew chunks this last storm.

I have not really paid much attention to the late week deal, but just looking at the 0z runs of the ops/ensembles, the Euro/EPS, and to some degree the Canadian, have weaker low pressure along the Gulf coast and move it NE along the cold front such that the low tracks to our SE. The weaker nature of the low allows the cold to press east faster on the Euro. Canadian/CMC ens don't get the cold in quite as fast so its mostly rain. GFS has a stronger low tracking along the front further west and delays the arrival of colder air. GEFS mostly agrees but there are a a handful of members that imply some frozen. As usual, we watch the trends in the coming days.

From Mount Holly AFD this AM The dominant feature through this period will be the surface high building towards and over our region, resulting in tranquil conditions for the region through this period. As mentioned by the previous shift, low level flow is expected to become northeasterly as early as Monday night, continuing through Wednesday in response to not only the surface high shifting east, but also the weak low that is expected to develop off the Carolina coast and lifting further northeast (well off shore) before stalling). The net result of all of this is potential for patchy fog/freezing fog both Monday night and Tuesday night. Dew point depressions should be very low, especially in areas where the snow pack remains through this period (which will likely be mostly over the coastal plains). Two factors that could limit fog/freezing fog development are winds, especially Tuesday night could be in the 5 to 10 mph range, and if any marine layer stratus propagates in before the fog develops. All that being said, there was enough of a chance to warrant including a mention of patchy fog/freezing fog in areas with a 3 deg F or less dew point depression both nights. For Monday night, this would be primarily the coastal plains, but the potential exists across the region Tuesday night.

3 degrees at 7am

5.8" Sadly not what the GFS was advertising lol.

Y'all are due. You can have the goods on this one, as long as I get a few inches. On a heater here minus the MLK slop fest.

Lets be blunt. The GFS was terrible. Once it finally caught on and incrementally corrected west, it went too far at the end, as other guidance was incrementally contracting and pushing the higher snowfall totals more towards the coast.

LOL you called bust and OTS based on some crappy camera angles at your place. No meltdowns here dude. People legit laughing is all. It was pretty embarrassing. I know it must suck being up there in N NH and getting scraps while the MA and SNE coasts get hit hard. It will work out for you in the end though.

Median is probably about 12 here. The blizzard warning was mostly for right along the coast, even though they extended it inland later. The higher snowfall forecast was also for right along the coast, and it mostly verified if you look at the reports.

18.5".

Not mad bro. I have exceeded my annual snowfall avg in Jan. Might even have more than you.

That wasn't really the issue. It was him doing a drive by and gleefully claiming bust and OTS, as if we had not been paying any attention, and he was 'enlightening' us all. I'm sure he was posting the same crap in the NE thread.

Oh yeahhh. Probably 29 then.

High of 21. Currently 19. See how low we can go tonight. If the winds die down later, should easily get into the single digits. Lowest so far was 7 after the Jan 3 storm.

Snowfall totals from Mount Holly- https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

20 here. Deep winter look and feel. Side roads are bad due to the constant blowing and drifting from the open fields. Lots of cool snow devils. Snownado? lol.

Lol is that a vacation home or where you live? Did you get the 8.3 the model showed you? It's my house but it really is a perfect vacation home. I will probably market it as a retreat/hunting cabin when I go to sell it. Guidance ran the gamut here and the 18z GFS was the worst-still showing 10". Most other guidance had backed off to the 5-8" range. Ended up just short of 6". It played out just like I thought. These late developing scrapers will almost always give me some decent snow, but the best always stays east. The GFS love will maybe back off a bit as it was terrible with this event- way too far east for many runs then incrementally went west and ended up with more snow too far inland, as all other guidance corrected the other way.

1/3/22- 9.5" 1/7/22- 3.2" 1/16/22- 0.8" 1/29/22- 5.8" Total: 19.3"

LOL Damn

Maybe check some of the obs in this very thread from the beaches.

bump