CAPE

This should be a close game, unless one team wants to give the ball away repetitively. I would like to see the Bengals win mostly for their fans who lost 2 heartbreakers in the 80s and haven't really gotten deep into postseason since. Otoh, I like Stafford and wouldn't mind seeing him win after spending most of his career with an awful Lions organization. One matchup that isn't good for the Bengals is their OL against the Rams DL in passing situations. The Bengals can run the ball though, so that will be important to keep some of the pressure off Burrow.

This isn't a bad h5 look on the EPS for the end of the month.

2/13/22- 0.2" Total: 19.5"

Interesting AFD snippet from State College- Focus shifts to scattered instability snow showers developing across western PA into the Alleghenies/Laurel Highlands this evening into tonight. Pool of steep 0-3km lapse rates (7-8+ C/km) will drop southeast from lower MI and traverse south central PA tonight coincident with potent upper level trough. Primary risk is for locally heavy snow showers/squalls to develop and produce sharp vis drops to near whiteout and quick snow accumulation on roads. Evening shift will need to monitor upstream conditions and may need to issue some statements should conditions warrant. Confidence is average with the best signal over the Laurel Highlands to I-99, but how far east showers can extend is uncertain. We were keen to continue mention of heavy snow showers/potential hazardous driving impacts in the HWO while trending POPs higher than NBM.

I kind of get his point about tracking events that are entirely dependent on small scale features. That's what this was, and I put a lot into tracking it, but I was doing it more for fun and to "bring the blues" to the snow starved north (LOL), and it actually worked out that way. For all my tracking, I got bupkis!

Snow squall action on NAM nest..

They all have the same basic design, and you can make them yourself. You can buy them on Amazon. I have a variety.

You benefitted from more than timing- you were in the sweet spot with the best lift in the RR quad of that jet streak. You probably had some stellar dendrites falling at an inch per hour. Things tend to even out. I made a lot of posts in this thread tracking the small scale features for this event, and I know I said at least couple times that places NW were overdue, and if nothing else, that was enough of a reason to keep tracking when much of the guidance had it further east. WDI there for a hit, and WDI over here to miss out.

Yeah it looks pretty coming down but these are not high quality flakes, so struggling to get more than a coating. I am sure had it actually snowed when it was supposed to overnight into the morning, I would have done quite a bit better here.

I wouldn't say it's epic, but that is a little above the mean for here. It all fell in January though and snow was on the ground a lot of the time so that was pretty epic. Much better than having bare ground for the best month of winter, I will say that.

Get this. Been using it for years around the perimeter of the house, door sills etc. Use a garden sprayer and spray every month in the Spring, Summer, and into the Fall. Great stuff. https://www.domyown.com/suspend-sc-p-40.html?keyword=suspend sc&gclid=CjwKCAiA9aKQBhBREiwAyGP5lbkKF02o_641wOww3TPBLXPleQvJB5FdbZNn3Ir1s0ftj6C5RkbR8BoCJFwQAvD_BwE eta- the residual it leaves is transparent, so it wont leave anything visible on the surfaces. That was one of my priorities when I selected it, given I have a log home.

I need a few of those to make it to 20 for the season.

Finally getting some steady light snow here the last 30 mins. Temp is 31.5. Light coating on the ground and deck. Probably wont last long enough to salvage anything respectable lol.

I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part.

I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable.

Extended GEFS also shows improvement on the Pac side for early March. Bob's gut plus LR guidance brings back the EPO ridge. I'm in!

Finally seeing a few flakes falling.

I didn't pay that much attention to all the runs, but it seems the Canadian did well with locating that area, although I don't think it had the higher amounts.

If that area of strong lift had been over your area, temps would have fallen to freezing and snow would have accumulated. Maybe not the 4-5" that the Parrs folks got, but 2-3" would have been doable.

Not getting pummeled?

0.00 qpf = 0 flakes I think that area of snow tv is going to completely disintegrate before it ever makes it here lol.

Open those blinds!!

Some of the high res guidance develops a snow squall as the NS shortwave passes through later tonight. Looks like psu land maybe down towards Baltimore could see a burst of snow.

That area was overdue for sure, and you got under the best lift associated with the right entrance region of that jet streak. It was always going to be a fairly small area that would get the heavier snow, but hard to pin down even a couple days out. It seems the Canadians did the best with getting that located correctly.