CAPE

31 and moderate snow now. Looks like a half inch. Pretty out there.

Mount Holly AFD.. not Boston, but not too shabby for the coastal areas locally. Tonight is when we will be getting into the real meat of this storm. The forecast models are now in good overall agreement tracking rapidly deepening low pressure NNE from off the SE coast to a point near or just south of "The benchmark" (40 degrees latitude north / 70 degrees west) by 12z Saturday. Snow will become more widespread and increase in intensity south to north through the evening hours. Northerly winds will ramp up with time as well. The end result is that by the overnight period, snow, becoming heavy at times will encompass much of the area near and S/E Of the I-95 corridor with the increasing winds resulting in blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Hence the Blizzard Warning for the coast. Also, by the predawn hours of Saturday, northern edge of snow will be getting into our far N/W counties but still expecting much less snowfall here. For Saturday, low will be due east of the area off the coast as it continue to rapidly deepen and move northeast. This will result in blizzard conditions continuing near the coast as wind gusts will be up to 50 mph with snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour at times as our coastal zones will be in the intense snowfall band on the N/W side of the storm. The snow won`t be quite as heavy but still heavy at times back towards the I-95 corridor (including Philly) with rates here even getting to around 1 inch per hour at times along with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. The snow continues through the morning before then starting to diminish with time from west to east across the area as we get into the afternoon. However the very strong winds will continue through the afternoon as the storm pulls away aided by the cold advection pattern in its wake with winds shifting from north to NW. For this reason, blowing/drifting snow will likely continue in places right through the day, especially near the coast.

Just read that. 5" per hour rates and 30" totals in places. Goddamn. The NAM realized.

the better models.

Or look outside. Hand wringing over radar is more fun though I guess.

The last time I had a double digit snow was 2016. (got close earlier this month). This will likely be the third(maybe fourth?) time places right along the MD/DE coast have seen double digit snow totals since 2017, and the second legit blizzard in that timeframe. Pretty interesting as those areas get far less snowfall overall.

Don't look at it.

It is now snowing outside. No radar watching, and absolutely no shits to give about what the god awful HRRRRRRRRRRR thinks is going to happen, which changes as rapidly as it updates. This Chocolate milk coffee stout from Black Flag is pretty good.

Steady snow continues here and now seeing some bigger flakes mixing in. All surfaces coated other than the roads. Temp down to 32.

I am sure I will regret not going to the beach.

The 18z NAM just halved my snow from the 12z run.

Steady light snow and 33 here now. Just starting to see some stickage as the temp as dropped a bit. Looking at the latest guidance it looks like 5 to as much as 7" here. About what I have expected despite plenty of runs showing 8-12 and even more.

I have decided to stay put. I hope I won't regret it. I actually just started sipping on a 120. Shocker I know lol. I have various other IPAs and a few stouts in the fridge, but nothing too exciting. Red wine and some bourbon might be in the mix too.

Can you talk dirty for my area next? TIA!

36 with very light snow falling here.

Yup they just expanded it to inland Sussex.

Look at the upper level winds, h5 vorticity, and then 850/700 vort panels as the wester low develops at the surface. That(mid level low) is key for getting the good lift in the eastern areas at our latitude.

12z NAM is still a nice run, but it doesn't have the moderate area of snow NW of I-95 once the coastal gets going. It took a step back towards reality. Only 20" for the Jersey Shore.

Not pummeled?

I think the Jersey shore might lose a foot of snow this run. So probably only 3.

12z NAM is further east.

I haven't look too closely at the latest but generally a half inch. Temps will be cold other than at the very beginning, so that is a plus. My concern is the western edge being closer than modeled and dry air working in. Have seen that many times with Miller B type storms. As it stands 6-8" seems reasonable, but places right along the eastern side bay are probably looking at 4-5.

The late next week gradient deal might work out, but I still like the look for the following week.

Just looked at the forecast for Lewes, DE. Total snowfall through tomorrow 9-17" with 30-35 mph winds gusting to 45. Fun. .

The adjustments are 'yard location specific' for the snow from the coastal. For those near the cutoff on the edge of the sharp gradient, a shift of 10-20 miles can make a significant difference.