CAPE

Blizzard warning for you folks along the coast. Lewes and Rehoboth should be fun, then shut lol. I would love to chase but too much going on here, so I will enjoy whatever falls in my yard this time. If the latest trends are correct, there is a chance for more than a foot down there with plenty of drifting. Enjoy!

And neither one of us will be there for a 2018 bomb cyclone redux. Enjoy your heavy snow up there.

There is likely going to be a sharp cutoff once the coastal gets going. The push of dry Arctic air from the NW is problematic up that way. eta- I misread.. thought you were asking about southern PA. Along the coast is where the best snow will occur.

Pretty much all guidance has shifted the coastal low more westward to some degree. The NAM and GFS have an impressive 700 mb low moving right along the coast. Coastal NJ gets hammered on those runs. Coastal DE and MD would also get in on the impressive snow rates just to the left of that h7 vort max, and with the advertised wind, no surprise to see the Blizzard warning.

Another great disco from Mount Holly. From a forecasting standpoint, the good news is that models are steadily converging on the overall evolution of the winter storm anticipated to affect much of our area during the short-term period. Models continue to exhibit two important trends that are becoming more favorable for significant snowfall in the eastern half or so of the CWA. (1) A southern-stream vort max is trending faster in its migration eastward from the southern Plains on Friday. (2) A northern-stream digging vort max is trending slightly slower and stronger/deeper. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all trending in this direction (to varying degrees and with somewhat varying consistency) with both phenomena, as well as respective ensembles. This has led to a general westward shift in the surface low just off the East Coast attendant to the more quickly phasing large-scale trough in the eastern U.S. Friday night and Saturday (as well as a noticeably deeper and more negatively-tilted trough). Consensus snowfall totals are beginning to increase in areas to the south and east of the Fall Line, and confidence continues to increase that warning-level snow will occur in much if not most of the winter storm watch area. As a result, have upgraded remaining portions of the watch to a warning on this shift. The forecasting challenges tonight have been associated with the margins. For example, how much will snowfall totals decrease on the northwest periphery of the precipitation shield? Well, guidance suggests that this cutoff will be quite sharp, which is unsurprising given the strong push of cold/dry air on the northwest side of the synoptic system. There will likely be a very narrow corridor (read: around or less than 30 miles) where totals go from warning levels to sub-advisory levels, and confidence remains considerably lower on where this corridor will set up. Given the westward shift with the guidance in general the past 24 hours, this looks to be roughly near or more likely a little southeast of the Fall Line (at this time anyway; we will see how this forecast shifts the next couple of cycles). As a result, the adjoining winter weather advisory is for a narrow geographic region: Chester County PA to Sussex County NJ. Forecast snow totals drop off quickly to sub-advisory levels for the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and Berks County; therefore, no advisory was issued for these areas at this time. Another margin: Will portions of the region reach blizzard criteria? Short-range ensemble guidance strongly suggests the near-coast will feature several hours with winds above 30 mph and visibilities near or below a quarter mile. It will be increasingly tough to do farther inland, but think this threat spills into the eastern portions of the inland coastal zones of New Jersey. As a result, have upgraded the winter storm warning in these areas to a blizzard warning. Notably, inland Sussex County in Delaware remains in a winter storm warning, owing to increased uncertainty that these conditions will spill into much more than the immediate Atlantic coast. Blizzard conditions are very tough to meet (reaching the above conditions for 3+ hours), but even if they fall just short in the blizzard-warning area, conditions are very likely to be quite hazardous, with nearly- impossible travel expected.

Snippet from Boston AFD. Good stuff. Funny the sampling thing again! Still enough spread in the deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance to make for a somewhat uncertain forecast with respect to snowfall amounts and axis of heaviest snowfall. However, the trend in the guidance has been further east. The GEFS ensembles are pretty much all near or S and E of the benchmark with main focus for heavy snow across SE New Eng. However, the Canadian Ensembles and especially RGEM (Canadian 10km) has now caved to the EC and tracks a bomb cyclone near the 70W/40N benchmark, which is typically the indicator for heavy snow potential across the I-95 corridor in RI and eastern MA. This does put the American models (GFS and NAM) as outliers against the international guidance. So all eyes are on the Thursday 12z guidance. Even though the GFS did not quite cave in to the international guidance, there was a notable westward jog, which suggests that an out-to-sea and/or shut out condition (bust scenario) is looking less likely. A note about the NAM is that even though it is great for deep East Coast cyclogenesis events, we have to take its output with a huge grain of salt until we are within 36 hours, and especially 24 hours. For example, the Wed 18z run was rather extreme in that it swung from a hit for Eastern MA/RI at 12z to almost a complete miss for most of our CWA at 18z. That was a red flag as in the forecasting world, we want to see model continuity. That also indicates that the NAM was still struggling to sample the jet energy, which was up in the Yukon Territories at that time and removed from upper air sampling sites.

13.5" I think. It's in the other thread.

I knowww! And I really think there is a chance it could rival 2018 there. Still tempted, but last time I didn't account for everything being shut(including DFH) and trying to get out of there lol.

I think that is a near certainty to my east. Here I think it will be cold powder but more light to moderate in intensity. I think 5-6" is reasonable. That would put a bookend on a pretty remarkable Jan for here. If I get 7" that puts me close to 21 for the month. The long term historical annual snowfall mean here(not accounting for climate change) is 18.5".

Yeah that frontrunner/PRE/whatever the eff might get it done there.

Where is your house again? What number? Right where the 8.3 is.

Wider view of 18z The SW edge cutoff is creeping NE on all guidance.

Food value!

I am a mega beer snob. I probably wouldn't be compatible with you as a beer drinker.

Looks good! My fave pizza is gorgonzola with caramelized onions. Gotta be wood fired. The contrast.. just incredible. White, no red sauce. Just olive oil.

Try it. It really adds that extra layer of flavor and compliments the salt and the heat from the red pepper.

Mine are, in this order, high gravity Beer.

Sauté with salt, pepper, red pepper flakes, olive oil, garlic powder and finish off on high heat with pure Vermont Maple Syrup. Anyone who says they cant stand brussels sprouts have not had them prepared correctly. So good.

Agree for the most part, although I do love high end Margarita occasionally.

Cooked up some veg tonight. Brussel Sprouts and Broccoli from the Amish market. Will have it for the next couple days. Simple and delish.

Ha drinking one too. Its big and boozy. It's no DFH 120, but pretty good.

The GFS was really the lone outlier, and it made a big jump towards consensus today. I would think going forward there will be only minor adjustments, but given the volatility with the set up, one never knows.

This is technically CAPE Storm II. Probably not many remember because they were wrapped up tracking the MLK slop storm, but I was looking ahead and made several posts about this period being favorable for a coastal scraper with the potential for a big storm(bomb cyclone 2!!). Not sure how its going to end up for my yard exactly and I am so tempted to head to Rehoboth, but I need to get back pretty quick so I probably won't go .

It may not be King after its performance with the immediately upcoming storm.