CAPE

Or worse, depending on location lol. Congrats.

Mount Holly apparently gave a bit too much weight to the GFS, unwisely. Not sure they ever had 4" in the forecast for this area though. I saw 1-2, with some places up to 3. Either way, had you been paying more attention in this thread, you would have known what to expect.

Enjoy the snow, and hopefully folks along I-95 in the metros get in on the fun. The best lift is shifting NE though and the intensity of the precip will likely wane some as it moves east/se. Nothing here and not expecting more than some light snow later this morning at this point. The GFS lol. It did try to adjust some at the very end but not really close to depicting reality.

Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting.

I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition.

It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not.

SREF looks entirely reasonable.

That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner.

This would be at least 3 losses in a row. It needs recalibrating.

60 leading in to Jan 3rd Sadly this will be nothing like that here.

These tools are all about hyperbole and getting the clicks. No one watches them on local newz anymore(who watches that shit?), so they have to stay 'relevant' somehow.

Stubborn. Actually a bit south and not as broad with the precip max.

Low of 31 here. UHI sucks.

LOL the GFS seems so lost.

We are likely going to get less snow here but not because of temps. It will be due the the initial upper jet streak maxing out further NW, then the new jet emerging from the base of the trough advancing up along the coast that will get the coastal low going, so might be a bit betwixt and between here with generally lighter snow. If moderate to heavy snow does fall here for a time, it will absolutely accumulate, esp given the timing from after midnight through the morning hours.

Forgot about that. Go Bengals!

I have worked tirelessly to get those blues up your way, and now maybe purples?!?!! Would be nice to see the Euro come around a bit, and the GFS is just stubborn(and wrong I think with the max precip area/placement) I just hope I can hang on to a little blue here lol. I will take whatever at this point. No complaints.

I think the blues are going to fill-in on the 18z Euro. I would go with 3 for there, maybe more. 1-2 has been my general thinking here, but I will refine it and say an inch. Not going to maximize that jet streak here, and then a second jet develops out of the base of the trough along the coast that gets the coastal going(offshore), so eastern areas are a bit in between it seems for this one. This event will help to invert the inversion.

I think you are in a good spot now. The real sweet spot looks to be a bit to your south/SW, but not sure that's going to shift.

Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point? Its not like there is a cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening.

The tendency for some to anoint king status to one model over another is just silly.

It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING!

Might as well look at all the Mesos at this juncture.

The changes have been pretty subtle though, and all small in scale. Mostly it's minor shifts in the location/duration/strength of the jet streak on the front side of the trough that are going to make the difference between a coating, and maybe 2-3 inches. That works for most here given how things have played out this winter.

Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days.