CAPE
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I would love for the GFS idea to be more correct, but well, I just don't trust it after its recent performances. Ask Psu how much snow he had in his yard last weekend and then ask me lol. The GFS was inverted right up until game time.. and then we have the 2 events prior to that to consider. It is defo on a 'negative' heater. Tossing out all the guidance though, the other thing I don't like is the pattern leading in fundamentally isn't a good match for frozen in this area. Not impossible, but..
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Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately.
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Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun!
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y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle.
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12z Euro has a more substantial piece of trailing energy that gets left behind after the next Friday(rain) event. Not sure if anything will come of it this run.
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I need Chuck to weigh in.
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Especially considering most of that would 'fall' beyond day 15. Good thing is those maps are useless until there is a discrete threat on the radar in the short to medium range.
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I have built up a tolerance due to constant exposure. I need purple now.
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Still a week before we even have a chance lol. Waiting and watching..
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Just looked over the 6z GEFS members for late next week- there are 6 (out of 30) that have some/mostly snow, and the rest look mixy/rainy or just rain.
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Lets hope not. For now it is the only one on the radar to track though.
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That squall line hit literally as I was pulling out of my driveway. Clouds looked impressive. It poured for about 3-4 miles but once I got a bit further south there was just scattered rain and nothing heavy.
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We will have to see how long the TPV can stay displaced and locked into a 'good' spot. Without much(or any) downstream ridging in the NAO domain, the character of the EPO ridge upstream will largely determine that- meaning the amplitude, axis, and orientation. It is a bit tenuous without some help in the NA. Right now I don't see much to "worry" about on the ensembles, at least not through the first week of March.
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March 1-7 is probably THE window. Not saying we wont have chances beyond that, but climo starts to make it more difficult pretty quickly going forward. Looking at the ensembles, still pretty scattershot, but March 2 and then the 5th-6th is where a discrete threat might start to emerge.
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62 here lol. Windy with brief downpours, but only 0.21" so far.
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Canadian ens looks better lol. Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen. I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.
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The snowiest 6 hour p-type panels overall, Fwiw.
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HH GEFS snowfall mean 2-3+" through next weekend, basically DC to Dover northward.
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Lets see what the ens mean looks like, not that it will provide any clarity as it mostly just follows the op each run lately. Still think this ends up mostly rain/ slop at best for the lowlands, but I am open to being surprised lol. One thing is for sure- the GFS can go eff itself if the Euro isn't onboard.
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Same. But not even buying the zr/sleet event given its recent performances. Not a good climo match for the lowlands at the very end of Feb either. Maybe the Winchester folks are more intrigued by this idea, but not me.
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HH GFS doing GFS-like things at range. Seems I have seen this sort of thing recently.
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Hope you get a few inches for the visiting fam to enjoy!
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66 here and that is the high temp.
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There is a clipper tracking to the north and that should produce some decent upslope snow for the western highlands, but beyond that not sure the rest of the area will see more than a random flurry. As for the HRRR at this range, lol don't bother.
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But do you have plenty of craft beer in the fridge?
