CAPE

The ICON SUCKS has it, but it's a southern VA/Lower eastern shore hit.

Back away from the op snow maps at range. Slooow, steady now. I know you can.

Deep winter look and feel end of Feb/Early March? Been awhile.

I always thought the late week deal was too soon. Once it goes by we have the cold coming in, and the Euro I think was the first I noticed depicting some trailing energy a day or so later. That was the key.

You need to show up earlier for these models runs- I am not a PbP guy, more of a color commentator. I promise I won't be a Romo and talk all over you though.

The changes were evident pretty early- More separation from the NS energy associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, so our shortwave was sharper/ wester, and better interaction with the next NS piece dropping in.

12z GFS- Our shortwave of interest is more distinct/stronger with higher h5 heights out in front. NS coming in. Lets see if we phase.

lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process.

12 km NAM at range- always a good laugh.

You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer.

^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point.

I usually find myself watching videos from NW Japan about this time every winter.

The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range.

CMC ens reasonably close for 6+ days out GEFS continued improvement...

EPS looks pretty good to me.

A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore.

HH GEFS is significantly better.

The perils of a progressive pattern. Timing has to be impeccable. This is a primary reason why we want a blocking regime.

That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential.

But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok.

Early March can produce different outcomes than say early Jan even if the state of the drivers largely remain the same.

Not bad at this juncture. Ask me how worried I am about the GFS lol.

12z EPS is souther than 0z, but not crushed/nonexistent like the GEFS. Canadian ens mean has a storm too but it is further south than the EPS.

It was pretty close to something big. Brings the NS energy in behind with some snow showers and then COLD.

It's a bit odd given the track of the low but its another op run that shows a storm and that's the take away.