CAPE

Wrt the Feb 27- March 1 period, HH GEFS seems to have a few subsets among the members- one brings energy out sooner and has as storm for Sunday into Monday, and most of that group(around 10) has a wave but keeps it suppressed. There are 2 or 3 nice hits for our area. The second subset seems to dampen the initial wave and has a stronger one a day or so later. There are 5 hits for the region in that group, 3 look like significant snow events, the other 2 are snow/mix to rain. The other group suggests snow showers or not much of anything. Upshot is this is a period to keep an eye on, and there is a pretty solid signal on the guidance given this is 8+ days out.

GFS op runs at range are usually entertaining.

which results in this at the surface.

and then we get this lol

The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days.

Looks a tad cold behind it.

Right where we want it.

That's the default take at this point until proven otherwise.

Someone should have hidden the magic gravity gibberish post. People just can't resist replying lol.

12z GEFS members for the Sunday- early Tuesday timeframe. A bit scattershot on the timing and evolution but it is emerging as a period of interest.

Yeah it does. LOL I just realized I had switched back to the 6z run when I was scrolling through the surface panels.

12z GFS continues with the crazy parade of storms tracking along the boundary, but to our north.

lol no thanks. Another 75-100 miles south will do it. It will probably end up the other way, which I would prefer to this.

First round of wind starting to crank here.

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.

Dude..

We do wind well around here. Mount Holly snippet- The other big story to note will be the winds. This will actually be quite remarkable given the winds we just had and that we went light and variable overnight last night - another quick turnaround. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the Arctic cold front will quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise. With the dry air noted earlier, steep low-level lapse rates, actually not too far off the dry adiabatic lapse rate in fact, will allow for deep vertical mixing, carrying down winds from well above 1500 feet from 850 to the 700 mb level. With a strong ll-jet moving beneath this shortwave, we will see strong winds glide right down to the surface. Ended up dividing the Wind Advisory into two segments, starting the western portion over the Poconos and Lehigh Valley at 10 am, and the rest of the area at 1 pm, both of these advisories lasting through 10 pm. Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible across the entire forecast area, likely highest associated with and behind any showers and snow squalls that form.

lol 10% chance of flurries here this afternoon. Rare to see that in a forecast- usually not mentioned unless it's at least 20.

Ji wants instant gratification, and it only comes from looking at op runs, even 10 days out. Go blue or go home lol.

Nice!

Nice wintry feeling morning with some frost. Low of 22. Better than the 62 of yesterday morning.

I think so, but staying focused on the next 2 weeks, we have the late week deal that you might be more interested in than me, the possible "sneaky" little wave for next Sunday, and then the window around March 2nd looks to hold some potential for a coastal. Seeing hints on both the GEFS and EPS. H5 certainly has that look-

I mentioned yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is a sneaky period to watch for something. As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north.

"simple equation for a sine wave" But go ahead and be pedantic. No help needed when it comes to technical subjects. Thanks for the offer though.

It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak.