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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    That is really just a transient ridge shifting through the NAO space in response to the TPV deepening and digging southward. Might help some if we timed a storm perfectly with its presence there, but the TPV is going to rotate up into that location and replace it just beyond this timeframe. Not sure a useful(persistent) -NAO is in the cards this winter, but it is difficult for guidance to pick up on it at range, so hard to know.
  2. CAPE
    Highly dependent on how things have worked out in one's own yard at any point in winter. Most were pessimistic in December, but then things flipped to significantly colder. So far luck has been more on the side of areas to the east wrt winter storms, so I get the frustration for those further inland at this juncture. Fortunately it appears we have a favorable pattern just ahead, and it coincides with the exact period where it "likes" to snow in the MA.
  3. CAPE
    This is my thinking. We might get lucky this coming week, but there are issues with even being cold enough. The advertised look on the means beginning around the 11th Feb suggests we get the combo of legit cold plus chances. Even a bootleg -NAO thrown in there on the GEFS. Clearly a continuation of a progressive pattern though, so specific threats won't necessarily show up at long leads.
  4. CAPE
    Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately.
  5. CAPE
    GFS again with the V-day storm. Mid month really does look like it is THE period to watch.
  6. CAPE
    Pretty big changes upstairs in just one run on the GFS. This might have a ways to go. Time the shortwaves and amp it a bit more and it could end up a more typical event across the region- esp with the marginal LL cold as depicted.
  7. CAPE
    As I posted earlier, the GEFS and EPS were hinting a bit more for that timeframe on the 0z runs. Crack open those blinds weenies.
  8. CAPE
    Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant.
  9. CAPE
    I have a friend who lives there. Nice area.
  10. CAPE
    Whatever heater its been on (real or imagined) it didn't do very well here and was not good for the last storm.
  11. CAPE
    This might be a good one to check out around Happy Hour.
  12. CAPE
    Or chase. I am always prepared to do it to get my fix any given winter. Been lucky here so far and I haven't had to.
  13. CAPE
    36 and light rain. Looks like maybe a slight chance of precip still being around when the cold comes in here, if the GFS is correct. Nothing like what it was advertising a couple days ago.
  14. CAPE
    Maybe we get better trends with one of the waves tracking across the south next week, otherwise it may end up a pretty boring period. The very end of next week into the following weekend looks colder and more active. Latest GFS op runs like V-day for an Anafrontal type deal.
  15. CAPE
    This is the general look for early to mid next week, with a series of weakish lows tracking to our south and offshore. The air mass at that point is meh. Tuesday into Wed has perked up a bit on the means, so worth watching, but a light event with marginal temps probably wont do much.
  16. CAPE
    High of 44 here today and snow cover surprisingly hanging in but thinning out. The cold leading in and cold/frozen ground has helped. I have seen other instances with 5-6" of snow and it goes much quicker with a couple days well above freezing.
  17. CAPE
    I think we should have one continuous med/long range thread and just let it grow until it becomes totally unmanageable.
  18. CAPE
    Looks like we are gonna need some adjustments for next week.
  19. CAPE
  20. CAPE
    Freezing fog overnight. Trees look really cool. Low of 17.
  21. CAPE
    Don't give up on early next week. Still plenty of time for changes in that mess of vorticity in the NS. Even if it doesn't work out, the advertised pattern continues to look cold and active.
  22. CAPE
    It is only palatable in transition. I'll take a bit of zr then sleet if it's going end up as mostly snow, like the 2014 St Patty's day storm. That was fun. eff that shit from 94-95 or whenever it was. Just a disaster.
  23. CAPE
    Unless you are into ice ( I'm not) Friday is dead.
  24. CAPE
    The 18z mean is a bit further north than 12z for Sun-Mon. Control run is always LOL and pretty well useless.
  25. CAPE
    For the whole month of Jan, right? Been hella good here. BTW a good part of the city is on the western edge of the coastal plain. The rest is close enough.
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