CAPE

Nice! Enjoy. I might be looking for a "next" career soon. Maybe you can hook me up.

Jeez I hope not!

Yeah I would go with an A here for Jan, I can't recall a better one in many years. December was awful as usual, and February has sucked other than still having snow otg for the first few days.

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

Better

Some slight improvement in the Southern sw and the NS vort lobe looks to be dropping in a tad more westward on HH GFS. Probably not enough but lets see.

What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one.

EPS is too. We got ourselves a cold frontal passage!

The Canadians say no at 12z. Enjoy the Euro run y'all. I have one of those 'play nice in the workplace' deals to attend for like the 30th time. Always need refreshers on how to behave professionally.

The thread title could use a little revising maybe. I simply identified this as a window for a possible sneaky wave behind the late week storm that had fail written all over it. I was already looking ahead. The Great CAPE storm is a little hyperbolic. (That one happened in early January. )

We do have a thread for digital snow. I suggested a while back that is the place they should be deposited until we have a discrete threat(and dedicated thread).

Ok, on to the Euro. The goal is to get back to a weak sauce storm.

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

Doesn't have to be a qpf bomb, at least for me. Rates and time of day matter more. The 12z/18z GFS simulations of yesterday had 4-6" (10:1) from the DC area across to central DE. I'd take that.

We have gone from this.. To this over the past few runs We may need a new player to show up lol

It is slightly better, so a small step maybe. Not sure we are going to get back to that earlier/deeper/wester dig of the NS energy like we were seeing yesterday.

So far looks more like 0z/6z than the 18z run yesterday.

27-28th actually

Probably a few more bad model cycles, then we get reeled back in with some "changes" in the interplay between key features.

Start a thread. One of 2 things HAS to happen apparently- we completely kill it with the dreaded jinx, or positive mojo/reverse jinx happens and we get buried.

I generally concur with this assessment. Last winter the impact of HL blocking was largely mitigated due to the complete lack of legitimate cold in our source region.

3 consecutive Ninas.. some here might need to consider therapy lol.

Don't forget the crappy GFS.

The Sunday-Monday window is a great example of why these ens mean snow maps are utterly useless at range. The ops are all over the place on the degree of interaction between the NS energy dropping down and the southern wave ejecting eastward from the SW. These differences are reflected among the ensemble members in subsets- in general if there is no/late interaction between the NS and the southern wave, it tracks generally eastward, there is not much cold, and almost no snow anywhere. Cold comes in behind. If the NS comes in deeper/further west, there is some degree of interaction/phasing and there is more precip and more cold. At this juncture we still have a lot of uncertainty, and the snow maps just average out the divided camps among the members. It tells you nothing.