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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    18 to zero to 12 in 3 consecutive runs 48 hours before game time. Love the NAM.
  2. CAPE
  3. CAPE
    Well shit, might be close..
  4. CAPE
    Its not going to be a Euro type run but it has recovered from whatever the hell it was binging on at 18z.
  5. CAPE
    Its gooder.
  6. CAPE
    This late in the game I have no interest in subatomic level analysis at h5. I'll just have another glass of wine and check the snow maps in a bit.
  7. CAPE
    So what we thinking about the NAM at 0z? Still on crack? Went from 18" to zero in my yard in one cycle.
  8. CAPE
    Hard to say exactly how that energy influences it, but 12z had an elongated/dual low structure, and 18z is much more consolidated looking at our latitude.
  9. CAPE
    I kinda feel like that's where we are headed. Just intuition.
  10. CAPE
    Time for the Euro to get its mojo back. Now, watch it cave bigly at 0z.
  11. CAPE
    Just give me 3 to 18 and I'm good.
  12. CAPE
  13. CAPE
    18z Euro actually looks better than 12z. That's a nice "trend".
  14. CAPE
    Same.
  15. CAPE
    That existing low is weakening the thermal gradient, which interferes with the development of the low in response to the upper trough moving east. Delays the deepening of the low and it has less impact closer to the coast, esp at our latitude.
  16. CAPE
    I honestly have no use for local on-air Mets. Have not watched one in 15 years or more lol. I understand the typical non-weather geek does to some extent, but they have become largely obsolete, and need a social media presence to stay relevant.
  17. CAPE
    I made a post about that earlier after the NAM run. The 18z NAM solution seemed to be heavily influenced by that area of low pressure- It made a big jump in one run. Time will tell if that ends up being the big disrupter.
  18. CAPE
    ofc not. he needs the clicks.
  19. CAPE
    Yeah I was a bit surprised by Mount Holly not keeping the forecast more generic here for now, given the unusual amount of uncertainty at this range and the clear trend across guidance for less impact. They should have at least waited until after the 0z suite imo. Big bust potential.
  20. CAPE
    After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun.
  21. CAPE
    Mount Holly is a tad bullish here- certainly more than I am. Friday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  22. CAPE
    Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.
  23. CAPE
    HH supports my earlier inclination to head to the beach. Couple inches in my yard, 6"+ down there.
  24. CAPE
    One thing I have noticed mostly while looking at the means is the area of low pressure sitting there NE of Florida. Not paid much attention to it really, but the 18z NAM certainly did- seems to have suddenly made it integral to the development of the coastal low this run. I am just catching up so maybe this was mentioned, but seems like it completely lost it's mind here.
  25. CAPE
    At least the 18z RGEM didn't shat the bed. Looks about the same as 12z.
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