CAPE

6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region.

Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday.

Mount Holly Discussion this morning. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

onward to zero zulu

Tad better than 12z

I would expect the 18z EPS to look pretty good.

So we gonna snow? ya. meet you at DFH in Rehoboth

Looks like the SW energy is coming east and will feed into our storm.

Lets see what the 18z Euro looks like at hour 90 wrt the energy in the SW. 18z GFS left it behind more than previous runs.

Yeah this run combined with the depiction on Euro with a late developing low(I am on the sw edge of the good precip) and it is not difficult to see how this might end up based on the overall set up combined with Nina climo. In some cases I can do better here being further east, but many times this ends up a Philly and points NE snowstorm and we both get effed. We just cant know yet.

18z GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though.

This is the problem- energy left behind and the trough doesn't dig as much and is broader as it approaches.

Miller B!! Nina! Looks about right.

If it gives me 20" with no rain or sleet I'm gonna call it Killer Z.

Yeah I get the definitions, I just don't think the labels add much from a pure analysis perspective.

Still evolving. I wont say no the the GFS or Euro for my yard though. From the preview posted earlier, CMC is trash.

It's a Miller C. Honestly I think the labels add nothing. Who cares. We can all see the evolution at h5 and the surface. Describe the depiction in that context, and that's what it is.

Talk about being on the SW edge. Eastern NJ NE-ward gets crushed.

Closer.

Without 50 50 low and-nao....ive seen alot of east stuff trend west in our location...usually to screw us lol Absolutely. I kinda like where this is on the means right now for my location, but it is still evolving.

It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown.