CAPE

Still digesting that 18z EPS run.

It looks pretty Euro-ish, so lends support for a big storm. Still, it is the NAM at range. Lets see if the GFS can take another step.

lol 12km NAM @ hour 84. The better models are up soon.

I have been out doing stuff. Damn the 18z EPS looked good.

If you want to pick up aged WWS or 120 min IPAs, the DFH store next to Chesapeake & Maine has them. 16 bucks a bottle. They have everything else DFH too ofc.

I can get you an aged one if you want. When they say "ages well" they aren't kidding. Had a 2013 vintage recently.

Come on down. I stay basically across the street. Fun times but more so in a snowstorm.

Gonna be hard not to drive an hour to Rehoboth at this point.

Displaced heavier snow area further south than the op.

Yeah I know there is a disconnect and the op has been leading the way and should be better than a low res ens at this range, but something to keep an eye on.

Interesting. This "trend" started at 12z on the GEFS.

This is a big improvement for I-95 and NW.

H5 is better. More precip develops to the south/southwest so its not all a late deform band deal. Good sign for folks along and NW of I-95.

One dude doing PBP please. The rest of you drink and STFU.

Yup I like that one. Founders knows how to do stouts. Never tried one I didn't enjoy.

I got my KBS Barrel Aged stout. Lets go HH!

Da fuk is in the water down there?

If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking.

I have noticed a slight difference in tone, enthusiasm, and degree of detail between the forecaster who does the morning AFD vs. the one who does the afternoon edition from Mount Holly.. Afternoon edition- Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only across the area.

It was ICONIC like one time a few winters ago when it nailed the DC centric snow area with the second disturbance in a 1-2 punch deal. I remember that because all the other guidance had that snow more east/NE, and it busted.

It sucks for all too. No forum divider lol.

Probably more like stating the obvious, lol.

Well.... If the GFS moves that way, then maybe I will buy the bigger storm option. A faster moving, later developing(deepening) surface low just fits the pattern better imo.