CAPE
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So did Cohen's #machinelearningmodel
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A lot needs to change for this to be more than light rain/snow showers for the immediate coast.
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A little better than 0z. Not as good as 18z.
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58 and drizzle. Looks like the rain should pick up here shortly.
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Look at 500 mb vorticity and it's a busy mess with multiple positively tilted vort maxes. The low develops ahead of that elongated ribbon of vorticity in response to that trailing shortwave dropping in, and if you look further upstairs you will see a pretty strong jet streak out in front of that ribbon. That gives a more complete picture of why the low forms in that location and tracks ENE. I am looking at the 6z GFS btw.
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Temps are marginal, but there's a chance.
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That's why I will always say give me the cold and I will take my chances (with storms moving into it). It can work the other way, but less likely. Jan 3 was an example of that. But that was impressive cold pressing SE and perfect timing(for eastern areas). Got to have the cold in place, or nearby and on the move.
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Damn was it that long ago?
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h5 looks better. Surface not so much. 18z EPS will be interesting.
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Yeah last winter could have been much better for places along the fall line and points east with the persistent favorable look up top, if not for the overwhelming pacific puke. That is the set up that usually works so well for my location wrt snowfall, yet I have done MUCH better this winter in a Nina with no blocking. The difference is clearly the degree of cold air available, but it also took some luck.
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I think HL blocking generally works better when we have a stj and the tendency for storms to form/ develop south of our latitude, and move north underneath it. Blocking in a Nina can still be advantageous, but we have the intrinsic issue of NS dominance and tendency for storms to track further north/miller B us.
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This one is a bit of a quandary. It probably wont do much good(anywhere) with a weaker/more eastern track due to the rotting airmass. A rain snow mix/snow tv over this way would be the most likely outcome. OTOH, if it could amp up some it might be a decent wet snow event west of the fall line. Problem is the overall pattern is not very supportive of that, but not impossible. Just have to keep an eye on it.
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Would have worked out a lot better had Canada not been flooded with mild Pacific air. A persistent -AO/NAO is hard to beat for our area but it cant work miracles when the source region is devoid of cold.
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That is really just a transient ridge shifting through the NAO space in response to the TPV deepening and digging southward. Might help some if we timed a storm perfectly with its presence there, but the TPV is going to rotate up into that location and replace it just beyond this timeframe. Not sure a useful(persistent) -NAO is in the cards this winter, but it is difficult for guidance to pick up on it at range, so hard to know.
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Highly dependent on how things have worked out in one's own yard at any point in winter. Most were pessimistic in December, but then things flipped to significantly colder. So far luck has been more on the side of areas to the east wrt winter storms, so I get the frustration for those further inland at this juncture. Fortunately it appears we have a favorable pattern just ahead, and it coincides with the exact period where it "likes" to snow in the MA.
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This is my thinking. We might get lucky this coming week, but there are issues with even being cold enough. The advertised look on the means beginning around the 11th Feb suggests we get the combo of legit cold plus chances. Even a bootleg -NAO thrown in there on the GEFS. Clearly a continuation of a progressive pattern though, so specific threats won't necessarily show up at long leads.
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Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately.
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GFS again with the V-day storm. Mid month really does look like it is THE period to watch.
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Pretty big changes upstairs in just one run on the GFS. This might have a ways to go. Time the shortwaves and amp it a bit more and it could end up a more typical event across the region- esp with the marginal LL cold as depicted.
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As I posted earlier, the GEFS and EPS were hinting a bit more for that timeframe on the 0z runs. Crack open those blinds weenies.
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Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant.
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I have a friend who lives there. Nice area.
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Whatever heater its been on (real or imagined) it didn't do very well here and was not good for the last storm.
