CAPE

Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation.

With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015.

Temp up to 30 here and no precip yet. Was 27 an hour ago. Gonna be close!

12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend.

Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff.

Only drink worth getting most anywhere is an Americano, usually with an extra shot or 2.

26 The race is on.

I had a bit of eggnog left in the fridge and it seemed like a decent idea. Pretty damn good. Way better than those oversweet seasonal drinks you get at Starbucks.

I am prepping. Drinking a strong coffee with egg Nog spiked with bourbon and Fireball as the creamer.

Sorry @Weather Will

CMC CMC ens

Temp up to 21. Should be 33 just as the precip arrives here.

Weeeeeeeee!

Low of 12 here. Currently 13. Looking forward to wind driven rain with temps rising into the 40s later.

That is probably the least likely option given what we see advertised on guidance right now, but with no blocking a more amplified wave could result in a hugger or inland runner.

Snowfall mean for next weekend into the following Monday is 3-5" across the region on the 0z CMC ens and EPS, with the higher amounts along and SE of I-95, and a bit further south on the EPS.

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs CMC has been the most bullish on a winter storm for this period.

That's the mean. The signal is there for something next weekend into the following week. No it's not going to look anything like an extreme solution on a single op run at day 7. GFS is still the GFS at range.

Sun into Mon-

HH GEFS for Sat

The strength and timing of NS sw diving in behind ended up being the nail in the coffin so to speak, but before that there were inherent flaws out in front. The Arctic cold was always fleeting, and the High was always exiting stage right, and that was always going to turn the flow more easterly. And again, with a better look up top- blocked flow/low off the Maritimes and HP further west, we likely don't get that sw diving in like that. That is neither here nor there at this point though.

Timing is even more important when the flow is progressive. Cold doesn't stay around long. Underscores the importance for at least some blocking up top. That big ocean low could have been a nice 50-50 and given us the confluence we needed, but it was flying up through the Maritimes with no block to slow it. Could have still worked, but again, timing. That NS sw probably would not have been an issue either had the look up top been better, ofc then we would have had the southern slider failure mode option lol.

Plenty can change at this range. Even though we have a pattern that can deliver some impressive cold, the flow is progressive(no blocking) so it largely comes down to timing. No way to know how that will turn out at this juncture.