CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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That would be the 120 lol. The 90 is a great balanced DIPA, around 9%.
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It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period.
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A bit of ice coating on tree limbs. All other surfaces just wet.
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I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different.
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6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go.
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Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day.
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We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore.
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There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig.
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Soaker
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33 and rain!
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A little offshore but nice to see a signal at this range for a coastal with plenty of cold in place.
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There we go.
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I'm thinking maybe that wave drops SE and becomes the trigger for the following coastal storm around the 27th.
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Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol.
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Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something.
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Many more iterations to come. It can only get better from cold and dry.
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Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.
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The Mean looks almost exactly like the GEFS at 6z. 12z not so much.
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Who said we can't?
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36/21 Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.
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The 23rd should be interesting, even if it doesn't produce much snow. Not sure we won't see some significant changes from what's currently being depicted. Kinda hoping to see something a bit unusual, with at least a little shot of snow.
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I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.
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As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.
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Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.
