CAPE

I got my KBS Barrel Aged stout. Lets go HH!

Da fuk is in the water down there?

If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking.

I have noticed a slight difference in tone, enthusiasm, and degree of detail between the forecaster who does the morning AFD vs. the one who does the afternoon edition from Mount Holly.. Afternoon edition- Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only across the area.

It was ICONIC like one time a few winters ago when it nailed the DC centric snow area with the second disturbance in a 1-2 punch deal. I remember that because all the other guidance had that snow more east/NE, and it busted.

It sucks for all too. No forum divider lol.

Probably more like stating the obvious, lol.

Well.... If the GFS moves that way, then maybe I will buy the bigger storm option. A faster moving, later developing(deepening) surface low just fits the pattern better imo.

The GFS evolution makes more sense given the setup.

The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina.

10:1 still gives nearly 30 inches to the immediate coast of MD and DE. The map algorithms aren't the 'issue' here lol.

I am enjoying it for the entertainment value that it is. Still hoping for a warning level snowfall, which seems realistic over here.

Euro snowfall looks absurd given the track of the low lol. I'll lean more towards a GFS solution for now.

Pretty close to the Euro.

Between runs. We live for Euro.

The offense actually was missing more key parts for more of the season and still finished top 10. Roman gets a pass based on that I guess. As for Wink, I think it is probably more big picture and multifaceted. First off, the defense was having major issues earlier in the season when they were mostly healthy- remember the blown assignments/miscommunications leading to huge plays? Also very few takeaways. The Raven's D will have a lot of new faces next year- I would expect most of the old guys on the D-line will be gone due to retirement or no interest in bringing them back. Jimmy Smith likely is gone. They probably wanted to go a different direction philosophically, and with all the likely changes in personnel they figured it was time to start fresh with new D-coordinator. Teams are interested in Wink based on the success over the last 3 seasons so he will have no problem getting a job

Mutual decision, which means they weren't going to extend him and he wanted to move on knowing that. As for Roman, I guess they are content having a good running game with HS level passing schemes.

We can talk about why Wink is gone but Roman remains.

Yeah I mentioned this earlier when it first came out. 6z was a good run, even if Ji didn't like it.

I have had way more snow here in March than December in recent winters. More than Feb in some cases.

Is that like a semi?

6z EPS looks pretty similar to 0z. A slight shift eastward maybe but I would call it noise.