CAPE

34 with a light coating of wet snow at 430 am.

47

Have you hit 100 posts about the HRRR NW trend yet today? So odd the modeled heavy snow area hasn't reached Erie yet.

Quite a bit of dirty talk in the WPC Heavy Snow Discussion- The guidance this aftn have continued to trend stronger, a little slower, and more NW with this system. The exception is the NAM, but this model seems to be initializing a bit too far south compared to reality and is not preferred. This trend suggests another uptick in snowfall potential which is reflected in both WSE mean/NBM 50th percentile, as well as the high end potential of the 90th percentiles of these same ensemble clusters. While antecedent conditions are quite warm, and many places may start as rain before changing over, rapid CAA behind the cold front will quickly transition rain to snow in many areas. This CAA will be aided via impressive ascent within a pivoting deformation axis to drive intense dynamic cooling of the column. Although SLRs will vary greatly, starting very low and then increasing with time as the column cools, notable overlap of -EPV* and ThetaE lapse rates near or below 0 suggest CSI or even upright convection (thunder snow) within the best deformation. This could produce snowfall rates of 2+"/hr, which is reflected both by HREF snow probabilities and the WPC snowband prototype tool, with the highest chances across VA, MD, DE, into southern NJ. It is these rates that will help overcome the low-level warmth and hostile antecedent conditions to produce heavy snowfall.

Not on the 18z run friend. And wrong thread.

Just because I happened to be looking at it at this exact moment, here ya go.

Good stuff. CC is not bad, and it's right down the street from the park. I like the UFO NE DIPA.

Been out enjoying the Spring-like day. Lots of people out at Terrapin. Stopped and had a flight at Cult Classic. So what did I miss? Obsessions over bumps north? south? Snow-eating mud concerns? Forecast here is 4-8". Seems about right. 58 here. Defo feels like snow.

GFS has locked in on the big storm idea for 4 straight runs now, each incrementally better. Gotta go with it.

Have not seen much concern for that yet, other than at the beginning. Once the column cools, given the somewhat suppressed/offshore track of the low, it should remain all snow. Best fgen still progged there, so even with more marginal surface temps for at least part of the event, a longer duration of moderate/heavy snow in those areas should get it done. I might have placed the heaviest snow area slightly further north.

Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps?

This is about the time where I quietly sneak out of the main thread lol. The 'model analysis' just gets more unbearable from here. So much talk of bumps here and bumps there. Ravens94 and the goddamn HRRR.

This should be fun for you in your new and improved snow climo locale.

I did see that. The enhancement due to terrain is a thing. And Mount PSU will have high ratio snow start to finish, so he is good for at least a half foot of fluff even if on the northern edge.

You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot.

++WDI

What are you concerned about? I mean, dude look at this.

What's the latest MJO forecast? It might warm up next week.

I think most of our snows happen that way in March. It works. Low sun and lots of clouds lately, so any worries about warm/wet ground etc...well, no.

^I should get the bullseye, right?

The shortwave is sharper and takes on a bit of a negative tilt while still to our sw, thus the flow out in front isn't as flat as was previously depicted, and the low is able to gain a bit more latitude as it exits the NC coast. N MD will have a good period of snow but it will be of shorter duration than places further south as the low tracks east and the colder/drier air comes in. There will be a tight gradient and a sharp cutoff on the north edge somewhere- looks like southern PA right now. Moisture depiction at h7 from 6z GFS-

It's not really a bump NW. It is indictive of the deepening low and an expansion of the heavier precip. Note the increased snow amounts on the SE edge of the precip shield as well. The location with the heaviest stripe of snow as depicted didn't change- amounts are just higher in this region on the 6z mean.

More from Mount Holly-- Bottom line up front: A major change in the forecast has occurred, at least for southern portions of the area. A potentially significant snowstorm is now expected to impact portions of the region Sunday night into Monday. This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Eastern Shore of Maryland, central and southern Delaware, and far southern New Jersey. For days, we have been monitoring the potential for a wave of low pressure behind today`s cold frontal passage to potentially graze the region with precipitation, but most indications have been that it would stay mainly to our south. Starting on yesterday`s model runs, and much more so overnight, there has been a major shift to a more amplified, further north track with that wave of low pressure. Meteorologically, this is tied to a much larger separation between a shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains and the frontal system which has been affecting us this weekend. This shortwave now has the potential to amplify and acquire a negative tilt as it moves through the Southeast US, spurring strong cyclogenesis downstream. Extreme frontogenetic lift will cause a new precipitation shield to rapidly develop to our southwest by early tonight, eventually overspreading portions of our region. Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time, continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater at times will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area.