CAPE

Those are kind of boring now lol. Depending on how it plays out I will either be in Rehoboth or stay home and go hiking in the snow at Tuckahoe. If it snows I'll get some photos.

Haven't paid much attention to the Canadian because it died on WB, but the 0z GEPS snowfall mean doesn't look bad for the region through Sunday am. A general 2-4".

Yeah it starts to pivot east. Would be good for places just east and southeast of my yard.

I thought you were back in the 'swamp'.

A little better than 0z. More precip further inland to our south on the mean with tighter clustering of member lows east of NC .

Might just be noise and the GFS could locked in to not getting that energy involved. Time will tell. Maybe the Euro is ready to take back the throne.

To a lesser degree though. More of that energy is getting ejected than previous runs. 6z 18z yesterday Still work to do, and still time.

2-4" is fine with me over zero.

6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region.

Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday.

Mount Holly Discussion this morning. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

onward to zero zulu

Tad better than 12z

I would expect the 18z EPS to look pretty good.

So we gonna snow? ya. meet you at DFH in Rehoboth

Looks like the SW energy is coming east and will feed into our storm.

Lets see what the 18z Euro looks like at hour 90 wrt the energy in the SW. 18z GFS left it behind more than previous runs.

Yeah this run combined with the depiction on Euro with a late developing low(I am on the sw edge of the good precip) and it is not difficult to see how this might end up based on the overall set up combined with Nina climo. In some cases I can do better here being further east, but many times this ends up a Philly and points NE snowstorm and we both get effed. We just cant know yet.

18z GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though.

This is the problem- energy left behind and the trough doesn't dig as much and is broader as it approaches.

Miller B!! Nina! Looks about right.

If it gives me 20" with no rain or sleet I'm gonna call it Killer Z.