CAPE

You benefitted from more than timing- you were in the sweet spot with the best lift in the RR quad of that jet streak. You probably had some stellar dendrites falling at an inch per hour. Things tend to even out. I made a lot of posts in this thread tracking the small scale features for this event, and I know I said at least couple times that places NW were overdue, and if nothing else, that was enough of a reason to keep tracking when much of the guidance had it further east. WDI there for a hit, and WDI over here to miss out.

Yeah it looks pretty coming down but these are not high quality flakes, so struggling to get more than a coating. I am sure had it actually snowed when it was supposed to overnight into the morning, I would have done quite a bit better here.

I wouldn't say it's epic, but that is a little above the mean for here. It all fell in January though and snow was on the ground a lot of the time so that was pretty epic. Much better than having bare ground for the best month of winter, I will say that.

Get this. Been using it for years around the perimeter of the house, door sills etc. Use a garden sprayer and spray every month in the Spring, Summer, and into the Fall. Great stuff. https://www.domyown.com/suspend-sc-p-40.html?keyword=suspend sc&gclid=CjwKCAiA9aKQBhBREiwAyGP5lbkKF02o_641wOww3TPBLXPleQvJB5FdbZNn3Ir1s0ftj6C5RkbR8BoCJFwQAvD_BwE eta- the residual it leaves is transparent, so it wont leave anything visible on the surfaces. That was one of my priorities when I selected it, given I have a log home.

I need a few of those to make it to 20 for the season.

Finally getting some steady light snow here the last 30 mins. Temp is 31.5. Light coating on the ground and deck. Probably wont last long enough to salvage anything respectable lol.

I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part.

I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable.

Extended GEFS also shows improvement on the Pac side for early March. Bob's gut plus LR guidance brings back the EPO ridge. I'm in!

Finally seeing a few flakes falling.

I didn't pay that much attention to all the runs, but it seems the Canadian did well with locating that area, although I don't think it had the higher amounts.

If that area of strong lift had been over your area, temps would have fallen to freezing and snow would have accumulated. Maybe not the 4-5" that the Parrs folks got, but 2-3" would have been doable.

Not getting pummeled?

0.00 qpf = 0 flakes I think that area of snow tv is going to completely disintegrate before it ever makes it here lol.

Open those blinds!!

Some of the high res guidance develops a snow squall as the NS shortwave passes through later tonight. Looks like psu land maybe down towards Baltimore could see a burst of snow.

That area was overdue for sure, and you got under the best lift associated with the right entrance region of that jet streak. It was always going to be a fairly small area that would get the heavier snow, but hard to pin down even a couple days out. It seems the Canadians did the best with getting that located correctly.

Or worse, depending on location lol. Congrats.

Mount Holly apparently gave a bit too much weight to the GFS, unwisely. Not sure they ever had 4" in the forecast for this area though. I saw 1-2, with some places up to 3. Either way, had you been paying more attention in this thread, you would have known what to expect.

Enjoy the snow, and hopefully folks along I-95 in the metros get in on the fun. The best lift is shifting NE though and the intensity of the precip will likely wane some as it moves east/se. Nothing here and not expecting more than some light snow later this morning at this point. The GFS lol. It did try to adjust some at the very end but not really close to depicting reality.

Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting.

I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition.

It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not.

SREF looks entirely reasonable.