CAPE

Yeah I get the definitions, I just don't think the labels add much from a pure analysis perspective.

Still evolving. I wont say no the the GFS or Euro for my yard though. From the preview posted earlier, CMC is trash.

It's a Miller C. Honestly I think the labels add nothing. Who cares. We can all see the evolution at h5 and the surface. Describe the depiction in that context, and that's what it is.

Talk about being on the SW edge. Eastern NJ NE-ward gets crushed.

Closer.

Without 50 50 low and-nao....ive seen alot of east stuff trend west in our location...usually to screw us lol Absolutely. I kinda like where this is on the means right now for my location, but it is still evolving.

It was just a general post and not directed at you lol. Just having a little fun with those that seem to think operational models have it figured out 6 days out. Like I said yesterday, we get NS energy phasing in sooner this could end up a rain/snow deal for the coast and better inland. Still plenty of time. The ultimate outcome is unknown.

Boom

The folks around Winchester who were ready to bail are now saying 'this baby is right where we want it'.

Nice synopsis by Mount Holly this morning- In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

Better.

We get snow in "flawed" patterns plenty of times. I have probably made more posts than anyone about the issues with this pattern, but the guidance also has problems with resolving all the subtle interactions and timing among the key features in an amped pattern with progressive flow at range. What they are depicting now is a simulation of the outcome, with some degree of uncertainty. I would give it until Tuesday at least.

Most here know the deal with this pattern dude. But this is the reality- many patterns 'aren't great' here and it is pretty typical for all the stars to have to align for snow to occur regardless. This region is pretty diverse geographically and climatologically. There is a better chance for eastern areas as it looks now, but with still 5+ days to go and a lot of moving parts, probably premature to throw in the towel anywhere yet.

Looking forward to tonight's game. As for the 49ers, I give them a legit shot. They are a tough bunch and have a really good coach.

Good for Stafford.

WOW.

Damn. Clutch.

Stafford will throw a pick-6 to end it lol.

This is gonna go to overtime now. Brady time. Rams O choked bigtime.

LOL the Rams. More like Lambs.

Might have been one other run that looked about the same. But at this juncture, this is a good sign.

Looks good for a trip to Rehoboth. I don't mind a bit of a chase. Whatever it takes. Like, 220, 221.

HH GEFS is the beginning.