CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work.
- 735 replies
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- 25
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Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week.
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GEFSx looks solid right through Xmas. I would expect the next run to look even better given the last few runs of the GEFS.
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Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol.
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A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc.
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It was another perfect radiational cooling set up, but might have been a bit more mixing of the air towards sunrise esp in the higher spots. I bet the lower areas near you were colder.
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Down to 27 at 6am
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28 here this morning
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The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean.
- 735 replies
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- 15
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Yeah, but that's a year away.
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We are due for a persistently blocky winter. Why not in a Nina to boot? Eff the QBO and Strat water vapor BS lol. Nebulous shit.
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Guidance has been waffling a bit from run to run, but seems to be moving towards a pretty favorable look. Pac jet configuration and MJO progression are no doubt big factors, along with default Nina tendencies.
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Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up.
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Well maybe 2 then.
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This is pretty hot.
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I know of one who won't be interjecting.
- 735 replies
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- 10
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So much optimism about the pattern progression. Where are the debs speculating about what could go wrong?
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That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave.
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I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look.
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Low of 25
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Latest edition of the Euro weeklies at h5 plus surface temp anomalies, one week beyond the 0z EPS run it initialized off of. We see the Okhotsk vortex continue to weaken, and the pattern progressing accordingly with +heights building in the EPO domain, and ditto in the NAO domain. A pretty nice look. Worth noting the 12z EPS took a slight step back in weakening that vortex as compared to the 0z run.
- 735 replies
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- 10
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Yeah pretty solid. Ideal radiational cooling conditions with low dews, no wind, clear skies. Air mass of Canadian continental origin. Always radiate well imy with no UHI and proximity away from either bay. Temp of 23 here in Easton closer to the water is also solid.
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Towards the end of the 0z EPS run the vortex near Okhotsk Sea appears to weaken/split, and the Pac pattern shows improvement. Meanwhile a nicely positioned ridge in the NAO domain is depicted. GEFS seems to be heading in the same direction with the h5 pattern.
- 735 replies
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- 16
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19 at 4am. Kept the wood stove going all night. Heat pump hasn't kicked on once.
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The actual highlands lol. Allegheny front. Legit microclimate. I lived up your way for 10+ years, and it's nice compared to the lowlands and cities, but its a far cry from places like Canaan and Deep Creek.
