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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The ens mean is 4-6" for areas east of the mountains for the same period. LR snow maps all suck, but isolating the control run is utterly useless. We could each draw up our best eye candy maps and it would be just as likely to verify.. as in not likely.
  2. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    After a few drops this morning, no precip in the forecast over the next 7 days. Great hiking weather.
  3. CAPE

    Drought

    CAPE replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Abnormally dry in portions of MD. Definitely been dry the last couple months here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MD
  4. CAPE
    Assuming they lose today, Ravens are probably going to finish with a 9-8 record, and that probably won't get them in. If they can find 2 more wins, 10-7 likely gets them in, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreakers against the Chargers, Colts, and Broncos. The game at Cincy will be huge, and they will likely have to beat the Steelers.
  5. CAPE
    Lamar is likely out, and I just saw Watkins is on the COVID list. The OL and secondary are a mess. Roman is still the OC. The Ravens will play hard, but the Packers are simply a much better team right now.
  6. CAPE
    I get ya, but given the situation with the Mets- underachievers and all the pressure to win now- they probably needed to go with a more well known, proven manager.
  7. CAPE
    Teleconnections on the 0z GEFS for the beginning of Jan: Significantly negative AO and NAO, -EPO, slightly negative PNA. EPS is very similar. As advertised that h5 look is probably about as good as it gets in a Nina. Will it verify, and will it actually produce anything? Watching it play out will be the 'fun' part, weather weenies.
  8. CAPE
    Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means. Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area.
  9. CAPE
    Makes sense. He knows NY, and a good manager. Probably couldn't have made a better choice given the options.
  10. CAPE
    Can't see this team going on a Super Bowl run like they did after dumping Cam lol. Just too beat up.
  11. CAPE
    Good read for Ravens fans. Yeah the OL is a bit of a mess, and they have no legit RBs, but Roman still insists on going with run heavy formations, limiting the passing game- despite major upgrades at WR. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/12/16/22838532/ravens-offense-issues-greg-roman-lamar-jackson
  12. CAPE
    The rest of the month after this weekend should average around normal. That has been the expectation based on the h5 look the ensemble means have been advertising. Take a trip north if you want to experience cold and snow the next 10 days or so.
  13. CAPE
    I am ok with the pattern progression potential as advertised on the means. Around Xmas though we aren't quite there yet, and a range of possibilities from a storm cutting west/north, to a perfectly timed 'thread the needle' moderate wave, to dry/shredded pos in NW flow are all viable at this juncture. I was just dragging his ass for that stupid post.
  14. CAPE
    Yeah must be. It's a meteorological impossibility with a deep trough out west and a flat ridge in the eastern third of the US. Unheard of.
  15. CAPE
    HH GFS with some NYE snow. Might happen. Only half a month away!
  16. CAPE
    Blue Earl Brewing Bourbon Barrel Stout 2021 for HH. Excellent.
  17. CAPE
    I was referring verbatim to the GEFS output. One of us is wrong, er engaging in nonsensical hyperbole.
  18. CAPE
    If the advertised block is legit we should have a period of 'cold enough' and chances for storms to track under us.
  19. CAPE
    Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though.
  20. CAPE
    We can't have nice things. We can have wind.
  21. CAPE
    Latest runs of the GEFS are hinting at that for later next week. Odds would favor areas well north of here. Even when the GFS/GEFS was involving the SS wave with the previous digging piece of NS energy(which 'disappeared') for earlier next week, it looked to be largely too late for our area.
  22. CAPE
    I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas .
  23. CAPE
  24. CAPE
    The GEFS has the NS energy digging south just as (what's left of) the southern shortwave reaches the coast of NC- where the baroclinic boundary lies as modeled. So it is captured but the coastal low develops a bit too late for the MA, and typical of a Nina, is good for points further NE. The op run was doing this a few runs ago with a much sharper NS shortwave, but has since backed off. The takeaway is we still cant know.
  25. CAPE
    GEFS has low to mid 40s.
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