CAPE

Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised.

Its been methodical and incremental for many runs now. The precip area has been getting lighter and shrinking in coverage run after run. Pretty impressive. Not like a sudden "cave". Still, it is now in line with most other guidance, outside of the Euro with its patch of flurries.

Mount Holly AFD for the 'event'.. On Tuesday night, the low will be strengthening offshore of the North Carolina coast, before lifting to the northeast through the day Wednesday, remaining offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The ECMWF remains the farthest east with the low as it passes by, while the rest of the model guidance tracks the low farther to the west. The greatest lift/moisture combination within the dendritic snow growth zone will remain on the northwest side of the low, which will track across most of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, as well as Delaware and eastern Maryland. We expect light precipitation to begin around or just before sunrise as a weak lead short wave moves into the area. Then as a stronger short wave approaches after sunrise, we expect the precipitation to spread across much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation across the I-95 corridor, south and eastward. The air above the surface is expected to be below freezing the entire time. However, as the precipitation begins to develop and spread across the area, some areas may warm up to near freezing or slightly above, before wet-bulbing back to freezing or below. So we expect mostly snow for most areas, although some rain may mix in if temperatures warm up above freezing, especially near the coast. QPF amounts are mostly one to two tenths or less across the area, and any snow that falls are expected to remain mostly around an inch or less, although some areas could approach 2 inches if temperatures stay cool enough during the event. The highest amounts are likely to remain across the I-95 corridor south and eastward, before dropping off near the coast.

Maybe just a touch. Probably negligible.

It is actually an improvement. Might be a dusting instead of virga.

Compare the location and strength of that vorticity lobe up north to the previous few runs of the GFS, and compare it to the latest Euro run. GFS is getting there.

GFS is incrementally trending souther and drier. Still the wettest solution ofc.

Disco from Mount Holly this morning on our non event- the end bit is a tad interesting given the timeframe. Cant just toss the GFS though. We continue to track a fast moving frontal wave which could impact the region on Wednesday. Trends for several cycles now have been for this wave to be less amplified and to track further south, bringing colder but drier outcomes to the region. The 06.00z GFS made a small bump back north, but most guidance showed little change, with the EC and UKMET remaining essentially total misses. Whether correct or not, the other models have clearly been chasing the EC for some time now, and the forecast is weighted in that direction. But on account of a smaller weighting given to the GFS, there is still some light (around 0.5 inches) snow accumulation indicated for most of the region. The southward trends do suggest that whatever precipitation does fall, if any, it will fall mostly or entirely as snow. But with a very dry air mass in place heading into the event, we will need appreciable saturation and lift to generate any precipitation at all, and it is possible that will not happen. Overall, it looks like a minor or non-event, but still cannot rule out a more moderate snowfall.

Just seeing some flakes flying with a coating this time of year would be fun, esp since we are about to shift to a warmer pattern by the weekend.

6z GFS shifted SE and is a bit drier, but still the outlier compared to all other guidance. Maybe a dusting on the Euro, or possibly just some flakes evaporating in the dry air before hitting the ground. Most other guidance suggests a dusting to maybe a half inch in a few places.

Realistically they might win 2 more games, and that would probably get them in. They have too many practice squad players starting now to make some deep run though. They need to seriously evaluate their strength and condition program.

Getting pressure on the QB sure would help a depleted secondary. Maybe they should have kept Matthew Judon

Shoulder apparently. Next man up, for the umpteenth time this season lol.

Yeah and word is he may be out for a while. Pectoral muscle possibly. Could be done if that's the case. He has been pretty average or even below this year but still better than about anybody else they have at corner. Also Mekari may miss time with a hand injury, so Tyre Phillips the human turnstile is back at RT. Oh joy. Jackson better figure out how to get the ball out quicker or feel the pressure and tuck it and run. (Hey Roman, how about some help here?) Cant keep taking 5+ sacks a game. Ravens may make the playoffs, but tough to imagine them doing much damage with so much damage to their roster.

It was a weird call for sure. You have to take it to OT. Roman and Lamar need to figure out how to make the defense pay for bringing constant heat. Fourth game in a row of this crap. They are lucky they won 2. The O-line is certainly not going to get any better this season. The defense continues to have key breakdowns in the secondary resulting in big plays for TDs, and they don't take the ball away. Worst 8-4 team ever lol.

From Mount Holly- Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. Is this really still a thing lol?

They got it going on now.

Bengals! Ofc I have to root for the Chargers here. Good game.

CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too.

That would be good timing...better than it being the case now It seems to have nailed the upcoming (crap) pattern, assuming it verifies as advertised. It had the h5 look we are currently seeing on the global ensembles over the next 2 weeks+ more than a month ago, when there was talk of HL blocking among the twitter geeks.

CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo.

So 60s instead of 80s? Sweet!!