CAPE

superstitious much?

So y'all can stop cluttering this one with talk of a nuisance storm. We have important things like SPV elongation and MJO progression to discuss. The actual winter is on the line here!!

I'm starting to feel good about living in the ocean.

Latest take from Mount Holly for next week.. Tuesday night-Wednesday night... A fast moving frontal wave is forecast to pass near the mid-Atlantic during this period, bringing a precipitation threat. Model agreement significantly worsened regarding this system on the 0z suite. The latest EC and UKMET runs are now so de-amplified with this wave that they show precipitation staying entirely south of the region. The GFS on the other hand remains much further north, with the GEM in between. The consensus of this trend is a colder and lower amplitude system overall. The environment it will be moving into will be quite dry and capable of significant wet bulbing effects. So am inclined to trend the forecast colder, though also concerned PoPs may be too high given the latest EC. This system does have potential to bring measurable snow and/or mixed precipitation to portions of the area, but given the poor model agreement, confidence is not high regarding this. Colder trend would allow for many to see at least a brief period of frozen, but if it ends up weak/flat/suppressed, there might not even be much precip.

Latest GFSX for the end of the month-

None of the LR guidance looks "good". Don't look at the latest CanSIPS. All that stuff is big picture though. We aren't likely going to see many favorable h5 looks this winter on the means. We need a period or 2 where the Pac ridge shifts/morphs into an EPO ridge, and/or some help in the NAO domain, and both are difficult to predict at long range.

0z Canadian and Euro ens mean suggests an inch or 2 for areas NW of the cities.

Today's edition of the Weeklies isn't awful at h5 for the last week of the month with a slightly -EPO/-NAO, and surface temps average to slightly below. The most impressive feature is still the +heights near the Aleutians. Soo Nina. Conceivably workable though if it were to somehow materialize. Not a torch for the holidays at least lol.

This digging trough.. some strong winds aloft with the front and just behind it, thus the advisories/warnings for the higher elevations where it could easily mix down.

So instead of rain and 55 for you its rain and 51 If so it would be rain and 45 for you. I'll take the low 50s.

Currently drinking a 120.

Its good stuff. I would rate it slightly lower than the Bourbon Barrel aged and the original, but better than the Oak aged Vanilla version. Original is the best, and if you can get an aged one try it. I had a 2008 vintage. Ages well as advertised.

Yeah just something to keep an eye on for now. This would be a more manageable look.

Only 'positive' I can find on any of the LR guidance wrt the large scale pattern is the Euro weeklies and extended GEFS have the EPO and WPO trending somewhat negative around mid month. Something to monitor. In the meantime I am just going to enjoy the upcoming milder weather. Perhaps we see some improvement in the h5 pattern by early Jan when climo is better.

Literally everything inverted. CFS has had this look consistently for at least the last month, despite hints and chatter elsewhere of a more favorable look developing up top for December.

I recall that now. It was a cold rain around the bay and east, but forgot how it busted up that way. Reinforces the overall point- December is a Fall month and outside of the highlands, the MA generally doesn't do frozen easily, even with a pretty favorable setup in the high latitudes.

I actually laughed. Closer to living in the bay though.

He had no point. Just him barging in, not reading for context, and saying- see look look it does snow in December! Like no shit. We all had 20" back in Dec 2009. We practically Aomori. 10 days from now, if we are having sunny days with temps in the 50s and 60s with no pattern change in sight, he will be in here melting down and complaining that the models won't even give us digital snow.

27 and frosty

I don't really care what happened in your yard, and how is this relevant to December snow climo for most of this subforum?

This happens every year when December looks like a fail on the means, as if it is surprising or something. It is normal here. Climo window for snow (for the majority in this region) is mid Jan through early March. Yes it is brief. We ain't Maine. Stop falling in love with the idea of low sun angle pre Xmas snow.

On the MA coastal plain we should be happy to see some decent Fall weather in December most years. More so lately and likely going forward. If its gonna be mild I am hoping for continued dry overall. Perfect for hiking and outdoor projects with no sweating and no bugs.

Agreed. At some point the Offense needs to get more efficient though. Last 3 games have been ugly. Still not a Roman fan. I hope this isn't as 'good' as it gets for the O-line. Almost afraid to say it, but the defense might finally be rounding into shape at the right time.

I used a Kreg jig to screw the boards together and a couple 2 x 3s for support underneath. Boards are combo of 2x6 and 2x8 to give the right overall width without having to do a rip cut.