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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    I missed that one lol. If we have a ++NAO, that likely means there is a +AO, so that's not favorable for cold and snow chances here. There are exceptions, like a -EPO/+PNA driven pattern, which can bring the cold but frozen events tend to be light to moderate from weaker waves, and amped systems tend to track inland or cut west.
  2. CAPE
    It's not complicated, so that's a plus. We always have the failure modes.
  3. CAPE
    There is a neutral PNA look towards the end of the EPS and GEPS runs, with hints of it trending positive. GEFS suggestive of this too. Have to see how that plays out. Looks like the NPJ retracts a bit but haven't looked into it enough to get an idea if that is something of persistence going forward. It sure would help the mid month period.
  4. CAPE
    Not much has changed on the means. The GEFS and GEPS hint at an initial wave on Feb 1, then another one right on its heels a day later with colder air involved. I didn't dig into the members so it could just be timing differences, but the upshot is there is a chance for some frozen as the cold arrives in the Feb 1-3 window. There are other chances beyond that with colder air in place. We begin to moderate around the 10th as the TPV lifts out and the NAO trends significantly positive.
  5. CAPE
    You own a mountain dude.
  6. CAPE
    That is different for sure. At least we have an alternative failure mode on the table. The cutter thing got boring ages ago.
  7. CAPE
    I get it. This 'song and dance' happens almost every winter though. At least the ensembles provide some degree of stability when tracking patterns in the LR. Lay off the op runs lol.
  8. CAPE
    For this threat window. Go play video games if you don't want to properly participate in the discussion lol.
  9. CAPE
    12z EPS has a similar look with a wave and cold pressing
  10. CAPE
    First chance.
  11. CAPE
    The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop?
  12. CAPE
    Lets review: The modeled period of interest with actual cold in place for days now has been Feb 1 at the earliest, to perhaps the 10th. Strongest signal for a wave or 2 has been the 2nd through the 8th. That really has not changed.
  13. CAPE
    Aligns well with recent runs of the ens mean.
  14. CAPE
    not a Barney fan?
  15. CAPE
    Awesome only 240 hours out! Pretty much on schedule. This has been the time frame for a chance of something (other than mild rain) per guidance for awhile.
  16. CAPE
    Pumped up HH run. Got me a 120 now.
  17. CAPE
    12z Euro and 18z GFS rolling out on WB at the same time. I need some weed.
  18. CAPE
    12z GEFS depicts a few minor disturbances moving through after the cold comes in with the wave around the 2nd, and then a more significant one for the 7th.
  19. CAPE
    Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means.
  20. CAPE
    HP is always on the move with progressive flow. That thing largely owes its existence to confluence from the strong TPV lobe rotating through, and there is nothing to slow its progress either.
  21. CAPE
    Fwiw the latest edition of the Euro weeklies suggest a transition to a workable h5 look for the last week of Feb. Maybe we bookend the month with crap in the middle.
  22. CAPE
    If that pattern locks in for the rest of the month then sure, but that isn't the point I was making. If the pattern improves moving towards the end of Feb, specifically on the Atlantic side, then still having some cold close by in Canada would be better than it being flooded with Pacific air with a +EPO/-PNA combo.
  23. CAPE
    That's been the general expectation as the TPV shifts more into the NAO domain and it goes impressively positive. For now it doesn't look like we torch, but definitely some moderation towards mid month. The Pacific side as currently modeled doesn't go hostile at least, with a ridge forecast to persist in the EPO/WPO space. That should keep our source region cold.
  24. CAPE
    Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3rd-4th with an actual cold airmass in place.
  25. CAPE
    Sleet-fest here. Pass.
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