CAPE

GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night.

The 10:1 snow maps suck in situations where there is warming aloft/mixing. The Kuchera map posted above is better.

Well, Cohen's #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth.

I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry.

Perfection. Don't always need a big dog. Love the feel of being way further north than reality once in a while.

GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching.

I am out on that shit. I do my own thing and mostly just add a tidbit here and there in the storm threads. The PBP is just unbearable. Chill told me a few years ago I would get to this point. I do believe I am there. Helps that my yard is pretty much effed for this one, but even last week I didn't post much leading up to game time even though it was clear my yard would get slammed p-good.

Just cracked open a 2014 DFH Raison D'Extra. Gonna sip on this HG bad boy slowly and let it warm up. Oh yeah.

He should probably stick to the snow maps.

It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol.

Snow lovers in Kentucky are hoping the NAM isn't on to something.

That was a great winter overall here, but that storm was a dud. Went from heavy snow to a driving rain like a switch flipped. Had 4" but I don't think there was much left at the end of the day.

Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly.

Next chance of something looks like late next week with a possible weak wave moving along/ahead of an Arctic boundary. Looks minor at this point, but both the GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe a quick shot of snow.

Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there. You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point.

Not ideal as depicted. The lows and highs are pretty much all in the wrong places up north.

More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands.

High of 25 here. Currently 17.

Must have been a brief snow shower here overnight. Skiff of snow on the deck and car. 20 currently.

For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so The 2 primary things to watch imo are the speed of the ocean low moving up towards the Maritimes, and timing/location that piece of energy dropping in over the ridge from Canada. Look at the position of that shortwave on the 6z GFS compared to a couple runs ago. It was acting like a kicker and on the latest run there is more spacing between it and the Maritimes low, allowing heights to build to our NE. It tries to partially phase, pulls the coastal further westward and it gains more latitude. Who knows if the GFS has the right idea here but it underscores the uncertainty.

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time.

Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.

Not even close.