CAPE

Stiff east wind and moderate snow with decent sized flakes. Still 29. Surprised its holding on here.

Aren't we in MA polar night now?

Leftover snowpack refreshed! Wind picking up now with steady light to moderate snow and temp down to 29. Overperformer so far. Going from this to wind driven rain and temps in the 40s will be interesting.

I stayed at Rehoboth beach in DE. I think the total was around 14" but so much drifting I couldn't tell. It was epic though.

Steady light snow with a nice coating and temp down a degree to 30. I will enjoy it while it lasts. I can see the sleet on the radar to the southwest. Y'all further inland enjoy this one. The first week of Jan was pretty sweet here, so no complaints.

There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard.

Very light snow falling here with the temp up to 31. Maybe I can get an hour or so of frozen before the warm air intrusion aloft commences.

Speaking of the week of the 24th- the GEFS also wants to develop a transient east based 'block' during that period. Not seeing that at all on the EPS.

Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation.

With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015.

Temp up to 30 here and no precip yet. Was 27 an hour ago. Gonna be close!

12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend.

Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff.

Only drink worth getting most anywhere is an Americano, usually with an extra shot or 2.

26 The race is on.

I had a bit of eggnog left in the fridge and it seemed like a decent idea. Pretty damn good. Way better than those oversweet seasonal drinks you get at Starbucks.

I am prepping. Drinking a strong coffee with egg Nog spiked with bourbon and Fireball as the creamer.

Sorry @Weather Will

CMC CMC ens

Temp up to 21. Should be 33 just as the precip arrives here.

Weeeeeeeee!

Low of 12 here. Currently 13. Looking forward to wind driven rain with temps rising into the 40s later.

That is probably the least likely option given what we see advertised on guidance right now, but with no blocking a more amplified wave could result in a hugger or inland runner.

Snowfall mean for next weekend into the following Monday is 3-5" across the region on the 0z CMC ens and EPS, with the higher amounts along and SE of I-95, and a bit further south on the EPS.

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.