CAPE

Some of y'all might have a better idea about the 'trends' if you stopped looking at op run surface maps.

I think the town is closer to 6000 ft. And rates! But yeah, we pretty much are.

A couple things looking at the latest ensemble runs. The High that settles in after the weekend 'event' brings temps back to around normal for Monday. It also is on the move east as the system of interest approaches. As of now it looks like a decent chance for a coastal low to develop, but exactly where and how close to the coast is uncertain. The degree of interaction with the NS low is a big unknown- GEFS has a more prominent low and the EURO much weaker. Still lots to sort out with the primary features. As for chances of frozen just looking at the big picture at this juncture, not surprising that it favors inland at elevation, but at 6+ days out, this is obviously subject to some significant changes.

Truckee webcam looking pretty impressive this morning.

This is kinda pretty.

It's not what I would call stable. Beginning this weekend the anomalous ridge flattens with some NS energy/chilly air impinging, so temps will go back and forth a bit. As advertised we could be generally colder by Xmas, and esp thereafter as the -NAO becomes more established.

So what qualifies as a pattern change and what entity determines such? You? A 10 day global mean? We talking advertised or verified? Be more specific. I am thinking there is no real intended substance here. Just another shit post from you.

Here is a select cut. All for fun ofc with these super LR tools.

We might get a better idea about the outcome over the next 20 or so runs.

The NS energy is stronger with a much sharper shortwave this run. That induces a low pressure at the surface over the GLs and also causes the coastal low to form further north as that sharp shortwave goes negative. This "trend" shows up on the 12z ensemble run as well. NS dominance with coastal lows forming to our NE in a Nina... a shocker!

This is why I almost exclusively post about the synoptics using the ensembles. Op runs are practically useless at this range.

Lol bust! I am guessing it gets heavier/colder as the day progresses. Rates actually work for places like that, all the time. We cant have nice things.

I don't think it matters what we root for lol. NS dominant with a weak/suppressed southern wave is always a viable outcome.

Watch it snow in Truckee. 11-17 today and 13-19 tonight. https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california

Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped. Colder outcome and could produce a light to moderate frozen event for the MA. Having the developing -NAO and the 50-50 vortex in place can work in our favor.

The Euro ensemble gets the southern energy involved and has a storm.

Perhaps a bit of good news on Lamar- https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32852640/baltimore-ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-carted-ankle-injury

Signal is still there on the ensembles for something next week. We just can't know the details.

That was 0z. 6z has a low cutting to Green Bay. Op runs day 10+ are for entertainment purposes only.

This has already been established as the CAPE storm. I take no responsibility for complete failure however.

Unless Mekari and Lamar are back next week, this season is probably over given the schedule. The O-line as currently constructed simply gets overpowered much of the time.

That was the pattern that produced the bomb cyclone I think. One of those 'bad luck' deals for most of the subforum.

I think using the word luck is fine. Maybe it's more like randomness. There are failure modes even when guidance looks good at say 3 days out, due to inevitable errors in timing of wave interactions, etc. There is almost always a fine line in most winter storm situations in this region(esp the cities and east), and favorable patterns for snow generally don't last that long, so 'wasting' them often amounts to 2 or 3 medium range threats that don't work out for one reason or another.

Ended up with 0.52" here.