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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
  2. CAPE
  3. CAPE
    From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- For the most part, the last several runs of models have overall kept the storm offshore, but there have been a few runs, including the 12Z CMC, that bring it much closer to the coast with the potential for significant impacts. While chances are increasing that a storm will develop next weekend, it remains to be seen exactly where it will be. It will take some time over the next couple of days for the models to pick up on the details that will show whether it will track offshore or closer to the coast.
  4. CAPE
    This loss is not squarely on his shoulders. But GB has been a top seed/favorite multiple times and managed to lose. Great QBs are expected to make great plays in the moment, at key points in the game- to make the difference. His performance last night was pretty pedestrian. Ofc he cannot be blamed for a missed FG and a blocked punt, but the bottom line is their high powered offense was held to 10 points at home.
  5. CAPE
    lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they actually know something.
  6. CAPE
    It would be nice for something to 'pan out' before the month is over. The first week of Jan was pretty epic here, but other than the 0.8" of snow before the driving rain last Sunday, its been generally cold here but not much else. I'll take a bookend.
  7. CAPE
    Mount Holly this morning...yes, we have a period to watch, lol. The pattern becomes more interesting/complicated to close the week, as a high-amplitude, positively-tilted trough moves into the eastern third-to-half of the country. A digging vort max near the base of the trough will encourage strong downstream ridging in the western Atlantic and cyclogenesis near or just off the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a front attendant to the trough should shift southeastward across the Northeast. Exactly how these features evolve will be critical in the forecast track of the rapidly deepening low off the Atlantic coast during the weekend. Models have trended farther offshore (in general) during the past 24 hours and are in reasonably decent agreement for this time range. However, the causal mechanisms for the development of this storm are of low predictability in general, and their interactions are extremely sensitive to processes not well resolved at this time range. Thus, the offshore trend should probably be taken cautiously at this time. Bottom line is this will be a time period to watch, as the ocean storm remains close enough for potential winter- and marine-weather impacts.
  8. CAPE
    Give SF credit for going there in that weather and playing a gutty game, but for as good as he is, Rodgers tends to come up small at times when it counts the most. Not a great record in the playoffs esp since winning the Superbowl, which was awhile ago now.
  9. CAPE
    It is a touchy set up, and the pieces and the interactions shift run to run. I like to do analysis upstairs, but I have sort of zoomed out on this one. I take a quick look each cycle, compare it to the previous 2, then look at the ens mean. You get a feel for where things are 'trending'. I said this more than a week ago now- that the advertised h5 look on the means at that time for this period looked like one favoring coastal scrapers and maybe an offshore tracking bomb. Maybe this one is our bomb cyclone with a track a bit closer in. At this range, I still would not rule out some (unforeseen) piece of NS energy phasing in and pulling this right along the coast- good for you maybe not for me- although that would probably occur to the benefit of our friends to the NE in this case. Without much help in the NA the outcome largely comes down to timing.
  10. CAPE
    I get it, but we are still several days out. Big picture.. We need the W US ridge amped and the ridge axis to be favorable(slightly west) to get the dig and the trough orientation neutral, then negative as it approaches the coast to have a chance. We are fighting the tendency in a progressive pattern for positively oriented troughs exiting stage right with late/offshore surface development. I thought 6z looked pretty good.
  11. CAPE
    Nor this
  12. CAPE
    The 6z GFS was a good run at h5 imo. The human pendulums and emotional debs are the ones who obsess over op run surface maps in isolation.
  13. CAPE
    Some here should probably take Chill's advice and disengage. The required timing and intricate interactions between the key features to get a good outcome are on the table, but we are still several days out, and we just cannot know. This remains a period to watch, and nothing is resolved at this juncture. The ensembles continue to signal a miss wide right. It would be nice to see some improvement there over the next day or 2.
  14. CAPE
    Oh yeah, we have a signal. We are entering the 'inside day 7' window now, so we will get a better idea. The advertised high amplitude pattern gives us a better chance in a progressive flow regime.
  15. CAPE
    Here is the best panel on the mean. A handful of nice hits among the members but a lot are offshore.
  16. CAPE
    Lol worse than 12z but in this range i trust op more How well have the ops done during this window so far? The means have consistently advertised damped/flattened waves moving east and developed low pressure offshore. Remember yesterday?
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    Lets see that the GEFS looks like. Means have been consistently offshore. The 6z ens mean looked the best I think.
  19. CAPE
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    So far the ens means are kicking the ass of the op runs for this window at range(no surprise). Damped waves and offshore coastal development/scrapers were/are favored, and so far that's what we are seeing. Hopefully we can get a change of fortune for late week. The outcome is so dependent on timing and subtle interactions in this regime that D7 op run pbp is more futile than usual lol.
  21. CAPE
    Lets see what HH GFS does. Watch the interaction between the shortwave energy riding over the top of the ridge and the vort lobes shedding off the TPV, as well as the western US ridge axis/ amplitude. The 6z run gave a nice path to victory, and 12z wasn't too far off.
  22. CAPE
    Wed into Thursday maybe.
  23. CAPE
    Temp has dropped 4 degrees in the last hour or so as the clouds have moved off. Currently 16.
  24. CAPE
    For the snow map peeps, this best captures that period. Differences in timing etc, among the individual members and a bit of digital snow prior.
  25. CAPE
    Better.
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