CAPE

A good outcome in this pattern(progressive) has always been contingent on subtle interactions and timing, plus fundamentally we needed the NS trough to dig more than usual in these set ups. A lot has to go right for this to work out, especially for places not right along the coast. Hopefully today brings some better trends with the trough orientation.

From Mount Holly this morning- Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed, downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important. With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.

I'm usually in bed lol.

I'll deliver the weenie snow map then I'm out. Still hoping for a warning criteria storm here.

Not as good as 18z but better than the GFS

That interaction was there and has gotten incrementally "worse" the past couple runs. I noted the oddness on the 18z GEFS with the lack of snowfall in our area but higher totals in SE VA. Clearly a large contingent of the members were seeing this and/or something else. I guess we were all so focused on the SW energy we didn't pay much attention to what was going on up north.

Remember the 12z and especially 18z GEFS signaling the better snows in the MA region would be down in E VA/NE NC?

Seems it at this juncture. I will travel for the jack zone though if it ends up a biggie along the immediate coast.

Still digesting that 18z EPS run.

It looks pretty Euro-ish, so lends support for a big storm. Still, it is the NAM at range. Lets see if the GFS can take another step.

lol 12km NAM @ hour 84. The better models are up soon.

I have been out doing stuff. Damn the 18z EPS looked good.

If you want to pick up aged WWS or 120 min IPAs, the DFH store next to Chesapeake & Maine has them. 16 bucks a bottle. They have everything else DFH too ofc.

I can get you an aged one if you want. When they say "ages well" they aren't kidding. Had a 2013 vintage recently.

Come on down. I stay basically across the street. Fun times but more so in a snowstorm.

Gonna be hard not to drive an hour to Rehoboth at this point.

Displaced heavier snow area further south than the op.

Yeah I know there is a disconnect and the op has been leading the way and should be better than a low res ens at this range, but something to keep an eye on.

Interesting. This "trend" started at 12z on the GEFS.

This is a big improvement for I-95 and NW.

H5 is better. More precip develops to the south/southwest so its not all a late deform band deal. Good sign for folks along and NW of I-95.

One dude doing PBP please. The rest of you drink and STFU.

Yup I like that one. Founders knows how to do stouts. Never tried one I didn't enjoy.