CAPE

It certainly could have worked if the randomness(luck) would have turned out a little differently. That said, the overall synoptics up top as advertised leading in was just "off" from what I want to see for my location. I know where you are the warts can be overcome more easily, so we often differ on our perspectives of what is favorable for a good outcome. Rapidly retreating cold air mass is a big red flag for me.

CMC and Euro ens look pretty good for a light/moderate event next weekend. As advertised the higher probs would be just south and towards the coast. This will likely change some.

Check out the 12z CMC for the upcoming period. Imagine this place if it played out like that lol.

Skip it, unless you are into (doomed) love stories. Watch Das Boot.

lol I know. Just saying enjoy the weather you get! No other choice.

The means are hinting for 24-25th but implies a bit too far offshore and developing further north. Have seen some decent hits on recent op runs too. Plenty of time.

CMC ens also looks interesting late week into next weekend for a little something. Not seeing a clear signal on the means for the following week but I would be surprised if we aren't teased by a coastal or 2.

The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels.

I'm going to enjoy wind driven rain falling. Have not seen that in quite a while.

Read my post in banter. I haven't said much lately but I never liked the overall setup for the lowlands, and ever since the GFS sniffed out the phasing idea and the other models quickly followed, I was out. Your area could still do ok but the problem with getting more/mostly snow is that nasty LL jet, and the mesos have it a bit stronger- thus the p-type issues even further north and west.

Your previous post is even worse. The synoptics support the inland track. It is a stacked low and the advertised track has been consistently inland.

I have been out on this event for awhile mostly because I know my climo and the synoptic setup leading in had lots of warts. Areas along the Fall line have (had) a better shot at frozen depending on how the specific details worked out in the short range. Had there been a semblance of a block, that departing ocean low would not have accelerated through the Maritimes and would have become a quasi-stationary 50-50 low, placing HP further west and locking cold air in place longer. The blocked flow likely would have influenced the behavior of the upstream shortwaves in the NS and thus the ultimate track of the storm. As it stands the Arctic air we have in place now is fleeting, the NS shortwave phases in and tugs the low NW, and we get an inland track with a strong easterly LL jet between the departing High shifting off the NE coast and the inland tracking closed low. The western highlands are the place to be for this one.

You should be weenie tagged. The models have been consistent with the idea of a closed h5 low tracking inland. The 850 low tracks west of DC into central PA, and the LL jet out of the E/SE is screaming. Go ahead and melt because the ground truth in your yard won't match your unrealistic expectations, but the guidance is sound.

Is this really a thing? Maybe a little sliver of hope for a better outcome for those along the Fall Line. East of there this thing is totally dead Jim. Mount Holly AFD- A lot of focus remains on the Sunday into Monday system. A deepening low pressure system coming out of the southeastern U.S. will lift NE into New England from late Sunday into Monday. We continue to see relatively good agreement with an inland track (if anything there appears to be a slight shift further west with the latest model runs). Although guidance has been quite consistent on this track the last several runs, my one hesitation is that this turn north is going to be dependent on a second mid level trough (currently over northern Canada) digging southeast over the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This trough timing may be important for the timing of the southern low taking a turn further north. While the models appear to be rather consistent with this feature, it is not yet within the upper air network or the usable range for GOES satellites. Therefore, I still have a bit of uncertainty. All that being said, it is hard to ignore the consistency of guidance on the track thus far, so forecast favors a track with the low generally following the I-95 corridor through our region.

I have had FD Raging Bitch(very good) but not tried the Tropical.

Still some decent patches of snow left in the woods here. Should hold with the Arctic air for the next day and a half, then I will "enjoy" the driving rain and wind. Had a great first week of the month and the pattern going forward looks promising. Meanwhile I am sipping on a 2013 vintage WWS for Friday HH.

Ofc the means have a pretty dry look with the baroclinic zone largely suppressed/offshore, but there will be relaxations and small scale perturbations in the larger scale flow that cannot be picked up on a LR ensemble. As I mentioned earlier, I would expect to see an offshore low/ coastal scraper and maybe a big storm during this period. 0z GFS showed the potential-

GFS mixes down some strong wind gusts as the LL jet passes over Sunday night.

The 10:1 snow maps suck in situations where there is warming aloft/mixing. The Kuchera map posted above is better.

Well, Cohen's #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth.

I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry.

Perfection. Don't always need a big dog. Love the feel of being way further north than reality once in a while.

GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching.

I am out on that shit. I do my own thing and mostly just add a tidbit here and there in the storm threads. The PBP is just unbearable. Chill told me a few years ago I would get to this point. I do believe I am there. Helps that my yard is pretty much effed for this one, but even last week I didn't post much leading up to game time even though it was clear my yard would get slammed p-good.

Just cracked open a 2014 DFH Raison D'Extra. Gonna sip on this HG bad boy slowly and let it warm up. Oh yeah.