Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,560

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    That existing low is weakening the thermal gradient, which interferes with the development of the low in response to the upper trough moving east. Delays the deepening of the low and it has less impact closer to the coast, esp at our latitude.
  2. CAPE
    I honestly have no use for local on-air Mets. Have not watched one in 15 years or more lol. I understand the typical non-weather geek does to some extent, but they have become largely obsolete, and need a social media presence to stay relevant.
  3. CAPE
    I made a post about that earlier after the NAM run. The 18z NAM solution seemed to be heavily influenced by that area of low pressure- It made a big jump in one run. Time will tell if that ends up being the big disrupter.
  4. CAPE
    ofc not. he needs the clicks.
  5. CAPE
    Yeah I was a bit surprised by Mount Holly not keeping the forecast more generic here for now, given the unusual amount of uncertainty at this range and the clear trend across guidance for less impact. They should have at least waited until after the 0z suite imo. Big bust potential.
  6. CAPE
    After a warmish first few days of Feb and maybe a mild storm, we get this look. Cold, and potential is there for something, but it looks to be of the same variety we are dealing with now lol. Could be fun.
  7. CAPE
    Mount Holly is a tad bullish here- certainly more than I am. Friday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  8. CAPE
    Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.
  9. CAPE
    HH supports my earlier inclination to head to the beach. Couple inches in my yard, 6"+ down there.
  10. CAPE
    One thing I have noticed mostly while looking at the means is the area of low pressure sitting there NE of Florida. Not paid much attention to it really, but the 18z NAM certainly did- seems to have suddenly made it integral to the development of the coastal low this run. I am just catching up so maybe this was mentioned, but seems like it completely lost it's mind here.
  11. CAPE
    At least the 18z RGEM didn't shat the bed. Looks about the same as 12z.
  12. CAPE
    Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.
  13. CAPE
    If I go there will be. Probably has to be a legit chance for at least a half a foot for me to go, unless my yard looks to be completely missed or fringed.
  14. CAPE
    Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.
  15. CAPE
    Those days are over for me. Last time I lost any sleep model watching was 2016. Just do what makes you happy and generally disengage emotionally from stuff you have zero control over.
  16. CAPE
    As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday.
  17. CAPE
    This is what it is now. A tweak here or there, but in the end I expect there to be a light to moderate snow for the general area, with those pretty shades of pink on the Euro confined to the immediate coast or gone altogether.
  18. CAPE
  19. CAPE
    I actually clicked on the chart and looked at it- he misconstrued something. Looks like only one site where the GFS was significantly more in error than the Euro. The rest were about equal, or slight errors one way or the other. Basically a wash.
  20. CAPE
    Yeah same general idea as the op but less precip. And the GEFS has led the way on the trend for the more meaningful snow to be in SE VA. At this point I would expect them to be very close as we go forward.
  21. CAPE
  22. CAPE
    Sure it was cool too. I don't expect either to verify verbatim though. The GFS might be a bit underdone/fast, but I think it is probably closer to what the outcome will be.
  23. CAPE
    Well there is the NAMing for east of I-95. Now we can get back to the more reasonable outcomes.
  24. CAPE
    Ground truth this run is very Euro like. Probably better.
  25. CAPE
×
×
  • Create New...