CAPE

All 3 globals are hinting at a storm during that period now. Euro amped, GFS too far north, CMC keeps all the moisture south. Long way to go, but the pattern looks supportive for something trackable during that time.

Squall line approaching here now. Just some general rain and breezy now. Temp is 60 and 0.33" so far.

I kinda like the period a few days later. Although suppression/shredding is a risk, it looks more supportive of frozen.

This. To me those maps(snow maps in general) have value only when we have a discrete threat in sight, when we are in a 'good' pattern. Otherwise they usually produce the generic 10-30%, 1-3" output per 15 days, depending on exact location. Unless we are in a putrid pattern when they show literally nothing.

High of 64 here. No sun today. Currently raining with this thin meandering training line. On the NW edge of it. Pours briefly then shuts off, over and over lol. Should be SE of here shortly. 0.21"

CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either.

H5 on the 6z GEFS looks super nice towards the end of the run. Pretty classic looking -NAO with low heights underneath off the Canadian Maritimes, -WPO/EPO, and western trough expanding eastward.

Pretty decent signal on the 0z GEFS for a west to east moving wave in the late Sunday to early Tuesday timeframe. Some chilly enough air to the north to keep an eye on it as advertised. A handful of members indicate some frozen for the region.

Yes the advertised -NAO does flatten the SE ridge. You can notice the flatter height lines and weaker +height anomalies over the east as we move towards the 20th on the means. Not the ideal look for our area, but sets up a possible gradient pattern, and with cold lurking in west-central Canada and some decent timing, a wintry storm isn't out of the question by the end of the month.

Not always, but it almost always is in a Nina, because it tends to be super negative and persistent.

-PNA too ofc. Need that Pac ridge to shift east some, or the favorable Atlantic may mostly be wasted.

Trifecta. -EPO/-AO/-NAO

Symmetry.

Yeah the 384 hour GFS verifies verbatim frequently.

Damn I didn't realize how close the Vikings were to blowing that game. Their knack for doing that is uncanny.

Evidently.

I remember the day after the 2016 storm staying below freezing here. Temps got mild quickly in the days that followed.

6z GEFS has a really good look on the Atlantic side, and the mean implies some waves moving east leading up to Christmas with some cold pressing in.

You should change your display name. Hurtsadelphia?

It would be nice to see the EPS get more enthused about a -NAO in that timeframe. Even with the PAC ridge extending more poleward into the EPO domain, the location/orientation appears to favor keeping the trough out west, at least initially. Need what the GEFS is advertising in the NA in order to counter the -PNA and beat down the eastern US ridge.

22 here this morning. Coldest temp so far this Fall/Winter.

Latest runs of the GEFS build heights nicely into the NAO domain leading up to Christmas. Eastern ridge is flatter/weaker, with more of a gradient pattern look, so not impossible to see something of interest in that timeframe as advertised. EPS moves in that direction but then backs off, leaving the +height anomalies near Scandinavia at day 15. CMC ens looks more like the EPS, but has leading edge of colder air bleeding into the N plains.

Btw, I am all for VODKA COLD OUTBREAK! It is so rare here, and it represents the ultimate cold airmass, I guess. Hate using JB lingo. I'll take my chances we get snow on the front end or as it moderates/ retreats. We had some pretty darn cold airmasses in 2014 with the -EPO. They were generally fleeting, and managed to produce light to moderate snow events.

Vortices are moving/rotating around all the time in the upper levels. Sure they represent areas of relatively colder/denser air, but when we have a poorly timed one to our north/ it tracks a bit too far south, the mechanism that can lead to suppression has more to do with the flow- too much confluence/convergence can slow/flatten the flow underneath, leading to weaker lift (PVA) from an approaching southern wave, and direct it off to the east before it gains enough latitude. It's often a fine line, like just about everything in this general area in order to get a good snowstorm.

I can enjoy mild rain 9 months out of the year, so if the 'risk' for the other 3 is arctic cold and dry, I will gladly take that and enjoy it. Not like an arctic airmass stays around at this latitude more than a few days anyway.