CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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That ramped up quick. The ground was bare with some light snow falling when I posted that link.
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Thundersnow there already. Saw several flashes of lightning on that cam only watching for a few mins.
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Happens all the time in November.
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Snowing in Buffalo now. Looks to get serious pretty quickly.
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Definitely Miller B flavor on the GEFS. Colder as the coastal gets going is implied, so maybe rain to snow deal.
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That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front.
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This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.
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Oh its different aright lol.
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You pay attention to them, but at this range you give much more weight to the ens runs to minimize the uncertainty associated with the deterministic guidance.
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Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.
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Actually the 1989 storm around Thanksgiving was the last significant Nov storm I recall. It was actually better for eastern areas I think- had a solid 6 inches here. We have had a few coatings here and there since but mostly we just fail lol. We due!
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Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.
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12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z in the big picture. Has a coastal storm with a decent look up top. It's not perfect but we rarely do perfect. The primary issue on the mean is not quite cold enough this run.
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Volatile. Weeeeeee!
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Close the shades y'all. It's over.
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That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.
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Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.
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^Just in case some context was needed to go along with the invaluable snow maps posted in isolation above.
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EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there.
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The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.
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Latest on the LES event. Looks like there will still be snow showers during the game on Sunday, but most of the snow will have fallen by then. Let's see how efficient they are at removal at the stadium.
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Yeah as advertised that is just the -NAO keeping us a tad on the cool side at best. If he wants to use an extended tool to WOOF over that period, he could make a better case using the 12z CFS depiction.
