CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Probably a little soon the way things look now. Maybe more towards the 10th. I agree with @WxUSAF that a bit of can kicking with peak RELOAD towards mid to late month wouldn't be a bad thing.
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It's a prominent feature of a Nina. Keeping it somewhat in check is a constant battle for our purposes. Ideally it would be more poleward over AK rather than broad and flat south of the Aleutians. What the models are depicting is a bit of both over the next 10 days or so, and the vortex near Okhotsk will continue to influence the character of that ridge. We need the -NAO to be legit and west based to counter the tendency for a trough out west and to keep the SE ridge flat.
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You know the drill with the LR guidance.
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This panel captures the inversion pretty well.
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28 here too Looks like a good chance of hitting 60+ today. High yesterday was 58.
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Alright.
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I really would like to complete this sale, and I can clearly see that you want to buy the product. Tell me how we can get this deal done today!
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GEFS + GEPS > EPS
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There are always legit concerns of one sort or another when it comes to getting snow in these parts, regardless of ENSO state.
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12z EPS keeps the vortex around Siberia stronger/more consolidated, so not quite as cold a look. Not earth shattering but something to keep an eye on.
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Third run in a row hinting, but this is a bit more robust. We track until it morphs lol.
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Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work.
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Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week.
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GEFSx looks solid right through Xmas. I would expect the next run to look even better given the last few runs of the GEFS.
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Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol.
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A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc.
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It was another perfect radiational cooling set up, but might have been a bit more mixing of the air towards sunrise esp in the higher spots. I bet the lower areas near you were colder.
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Down to 27 at 6am
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28 here this morning
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The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean.
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Yeah, but that's a year away.
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We are due for a persistently blocky winter. Why not in a Nina to boot? Eff the QBO and Strat water vapor BS lol. Nebulous shit.
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Guidance has been waffling a bit from run to run, but seems to be moving towards a pretty favorable look. Pac jet configuration and MJO progression are no doubt big factors, along with default Nina tendencies.
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Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up.
