CAPE

What's the latest MJO forecast? It might warm up next week.

I think most of our snows happen that way in March. It works. Low sun and lots of clouds lately, so any worries about warm/wet ground etc...well, no.

^I should get the bullseye, right?

The shortwave is sharper and takes on a bit of a negative tilt while still to our sw, thus the flow out in front isn't as flat as was previously depicted, and the low is able to gain a bit more latitude as it exits the NC coast. N MD will have a good period of snow but it will be of shorter duration than places further south as the low tracks east and the colder/drier air comes in. There will be a tight gradient and a sharp cutoff on the north edge somewhere- looks like southern PA right now. Moisture depiction at h7 from 6z GFS-

It's not really a bump NW. It is indictive of the deepening low and an expansion of the heavier precip. Note the increased snow amounts on the SE edge of the precip shield as well. The location with the heaviest stripe of snow as depicted didn't change- amounts are just higher in this region on the 6z mean.

More from Mount Holly-- Bottom line up front: A major change in the forecast has occurred, at least for southern portions of the area. A potentially significant snowstorm is now expected to impact portions of the region Sunday night into Monday. This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Eastern Shore of Maryland, central and southern Delaware, and far southern New Jersey. For days, we have been monitoring the potential for a wave of low pressure behind today`s cold frontal passage to potentially graze the region with precipitation, but most indications have been that it would stay mainly to our south. Starting on yesterday`s model runs, and much more so overnight, there has been a major shift to a more amplified, further north track with that wave of low pressure. Meteorologically, this is tied to a much larger separation between a shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains and the frontal system which has been affecting us this weekend. This shortwave now has the potential to amplify and acquire a negative tilt as it moves through the Southeast US, spurring strong cyclogenesis downstream. Extreme frontogenetic lift will cause a new precipitation shield to rapidly develop to our southwest by early tonight, eventually overspreading portions of our region. Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time, continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater at times will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area.

This snippet from Mount Holly AFD made me smile for some reason- Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch could also be in play for significant snow, even approaching metro Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is correct. But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the way in that direction at once; the current forecast already constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor the forecast today.

PSU is licking his chops. Brutal for west and north of dc Plenty of time.

SBY Jack

Im impressed dude. You nailed this 10 days ago when we had a severe se ridge It was probably desperation, the period had a good look, and there was nothing else to post about other than mjo, and strat shit. Sometimes we get too mired in the slump and keep looking too far ahead for something 'better'.

I will use the GFS as an example, as it appears to be kicking ass here. Back to the basics. The set up looks largely the same as when I first started posting about this window, and it is a favorable one. Cold air with sprawling HP to the west and north (note the absence of the dreaded GL low), low pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over Greenland. H5 is also reflective of the favorable look for snow in the MA. One flaw is the anomalous warmth we have in place just ahead of this potential event- but the cold push is legit, and as long as the shortwave is sharp and with a favorable pass to the south, and with all the features mentioned above in the 'right places' the solution the models seem to be converging on is reasonable. The expansion of the precip shield further NW into the colder air is not reflective of any significant shift in the low track, but rather a sharper shortwave and better timing. Overall a pretty classic look, and throw in that the -NAO is breaking down- not to say that this is going to be a KU type event.

This might be a forum divider- inverted.

Expansion of precip shield NW; snow bullseye the same.

Damn this thread is hopping. Ask and you receive multiple times. Snow starved weenies.

Looks like it might be a fun time in Rehoboth. DFH and snow.

This is the GFS we had known and loved and missed. Welcome back. -Ji

GFS and CMC. Canadians have 3-6" for the area just south and east of DC. The rest of those models are trash.

The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition.

The NAM knows.

The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region.