CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol.
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12z EPS looks good. After the 12z suite, one would have to think confidence is growing for a low end moderate event for southeastern portions of the region, assuming low level temps cooperate. Still some room for adjustment NW of the significant precip but probably limited at this juncture.
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Go ahead. I suck at starting threads lol.
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lol we know that's not happening in the current regime.
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psu wouldn't like this much.
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I will be in Rehoboth tomorrow into Monday so might be in a decent place to see a little snow. Heading west into the mountains mid to late week so should be in a good spot there for the next potential event. My yard might very well get skunked and I won't care in the least.
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GFS is hell bent on getting some decent snow in the area. Would be nice if it had support from like any other model though. 12z Euro run will be yuge.
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Hopefully we don't go 0 for 2 this week.
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Late week potential on the EPS-
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An undeniably more wintry look to the advertised longwave pattern for the eastern US going forward, and timed with a climatologically favored period for frozen in the MA. There should be chances, and hopefully a little luck.
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At least it looks wet to go along with the warm. Then cold and dry. Hopefully we can throw some big wind in there too.
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He only cares about hunting for the big dogs. He gets so many 1-3" events it's like a passing flurry to him.
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Like I said, getting 'some' snow from this (in our region in general) is a function of timing and sharpness of the wave, not the track shifting. My guess is the moisture will have mostly exited SE and I might see some flakes flying in the NW winds. A coating would be cool.
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Depends how many runs you want to go back and evaluate. 20? 10? Look at the last 4-5 GFS runs. The surface low track is the same- east and off the NC coast. How far north can the precip shield realistically get with a track straight off the coast at that latitude, and a strong cold front pressing southeastward?
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This could also be the last tick and it starts to tick south again. Seen that scenario way too many times The low isn't trending NW. This has to do with the timing and the sharpness of the shortwave. The wave is moving along a strong cold front where winds will be shifting to Northwesterly. You know what the only 'failure mode' is here.
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I would be pretty surprised if that ends up being the issue with this setup.
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I'll throw this in here. At this range and especially with the apparent continued uncertainty, the ensemble mean may provide some hints of whether this trends better in the next few runs. This might suggest a bit better. Gets over an inch of snow just up to DC and over to Dover.
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On to the storm after the failed storm? Lots of vortices flying around. This should be fun.
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Nice to have some decent rain for a change. 0.43"
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The EURO/EPS is slower with the cold, and the precip with the trailing piece is mostly SE of our region by the time it's cold enough. CMC is similar but further SE. The 6z GFS/GEFS looks more like the other 2 globals now- probably a bit of snow on the backend for some of the region but the 0z run depicting possibly a more widespread 'moderate' snow looks like an outlier for now.
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12z GEFS looks kinda interesting. The mean implies rain ending as snow.
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How do things usually trend for us?
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Keeping us interested. How will it "trend"?
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6z GFS looks decent.
