CAPE

We(collectively) tend to pay too much attention to the advertised LR pattern/teleconnections when we are currently in a shutout pattern, esp when it offers some promise of better times. Can't get to focused on the details when we are looking at guidance 10+ days out.

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

Not a huge fan of Heavy Seas in general, but the Double Cannon DIPA is a goodie. Nice balance of hops and malt, a bit creamy, very drinkable. The 9.5% abv is very well hidden.

Now if you had said the -EPO has faded on the last couple runs of the GEFS, I might agree.

Judah knows his shit. He always claims victory, one way or another. Pinned that baby!

The ens mean is 4-6" for areas east of the mountains for the same period. LR snow maps all suck, but isolating the control run is utterly useless. We could each draw up our best eye candy maps and it would be just as likely to verify.. as in not likely.

After a few drops this morning, no precip in the forecast over the next 7 days. Great hiking weather.

Abnormally dry in portions of MD. Definitely been dry the last couple months here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MD

Assuming they lose today, Ravens are probably going to finish with a 9-8 record, and that probably won't get them in. If they can find 2 more wins, 10-7 likely gets them in, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreakers against the Chargers, Colts, and Broncos. The game at Cincy will be huge, and they will likely have to beat the Steelers.

Lamar is likely out, and I just saw Watkins is on the COVID list. The OL and secondary are a mess. Roman is still the OC. The Ravens will play hard, but the Packers are simply a much better team right now.

I get ya, but given the situation with the Mets- underachievers and all the pressure to win now- they probably needed to go with a more well known, proven manager.

Teleconnections on the 0z GEFS for the beginning of Jan: Significantly negative AO and NAO, -EPO, slightly negative PNA. EPS is very similar. As advertised that h5 look is probably about as good as it gets in a Nina. Will it verify, and will it actually produce anything? Watching it play out will be the 'fun' part, weather weenies.

Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means. Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area.

Makes sense. He knows NY, and a good manager. Probably couldn't have made a better choice given the options.

Can't see this team going on a Super Bowl run like they did after dumping Cam lol. Just too beat up.

Good read for Ravens fans. Yeah the OL is a bit of a mess, and they have no legit RBs, but Roman still insists on going with run heavy formations, limiting the passing game- despite major upgrades at WR. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/12/16/22838532/ravens-offense-issues-greg-roman-lamar-jackson

The rest of the month after this weekend should average around normal. That has been the expectation based on the h5 look the ensemble means have been advertising. Take a trip north if you want to experience cold and snow the next 10 days or so.

I am ok with the pattern progression potential as advertised on the means. Around Xmas though we aren't quite there yet, and a range of possibilities from a storm cutting west/north, to a perfectly timed 'thread the needle' moderate wave, to dry/shredded pos in NW flow are all viable at this juncture. I was just dragging his ass for that stupid post.

Yeah must be. It's a meteorological impossibility with a deep trough out west and a flat ridge in the eastern third of the US. Unheard of.

HH GFS with some NYE snow. Might happen. Only half a month away!

Blue Earl Brewing Bourbon Barrel Stout 2021 for HH. Excellent.

I was referring verbatim to the GEFS output. One of us is wrong, er engaging in nonsensical hyperbole.

If the advertised block is legit we should have a period of 'cold enough' and chances for storms to track under us.

Looking at the GEFS/GEFSX, our temps are average to a few degrees below average from the last few days of Dec through Jan 18 verbatim. I'll take that on a mean. No JB weenie ass vodka cold showing up though.

We can't have nice things. We can have wind.