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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    This has already been established as the CAPE storm. I take no responsibility for complete failure however.
  2. CAPE
    Unless Mekari and Lamar are back next week, this season is probably over given the schedule. The O-line as currently constructed simply gets overpowered much of the time.
  3. CAPE
    That was the pattern that produced the bomb cyclone I think. One of those 'bad luck' deals for most of the subforum.
  4. CAPE
    I think using the word luck is fine. Maybe it's more like randomness. There are failure modes even when guidance looks good at say 3 days out, due to inevitable errors in timing of wave interactions, etc. There is almost always a fine line in most winter storm situations in this region(esp the cities and east), and favorable patterns for snow generally don't last that long, so 'wasting' them often amounts to 2 or 3 medium range threats that don't work out for one reason or another.
  5. CAPE
    Ended up with 0.52" here.
  6. CAPE
    All 3 globals are hinting at a storm during that period now. Euro amped, GFS too far north, CMC keeps all the moisture south. Long way to go, but the pattern looks supportive for something trackable during that time.
  7. CAPE
    Squall line approaching here now. Just some general rain and breezy now. Temp is 60 and 0.33" so far.
  8. CAPE
    I kinda like the period a few days later. Although suppression/shredding is a risk, it looks more supportive of frozen.
  9. CAPE
    This. To me those maps(snow maps in general) have value only when we have a discrete threat in sight, when we are in a 'good' pattern. Otherwise they usually produce the generic 10-30%, 1-3" output per 15 days, depending on exact location. Unless we are in a putrid pattern when they show literally nothing.
  10. CAPE
    High of 64 here. No sun today. Currently raining with this thin meandering training line. On the NW edge of it. Pours briefly then shuts off, over and over lol. Should be SE of here shortly. 0.21"
  11. CAPE
    CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either.
  12. CAPE
    H5 on the 6z GEFS looks super nice towards the end of the run. Pretty classic looking -NAO with low heights underneath off the Canadian Maritimes, -WPO/EPO, and western trough expanding eastward.
  13. CAPE
    Pretty decent signal on the 0z GEFS for a west to east moving wave in the late Sunday to early Tuesday timeframe. Some chilly enough air to the north to keep an eye on it as advertised. A handful of members indicate some frozen for the region.
  14. CAPE
    Yes the advertised -NAO does flatten the SE ridge. You can notice the flatter height lines and weaker +height anomalies over the east as we move towards the 20th on the means. Not the ideal look for our area, but sets up a possible gradient pattern, and with cold lurking in west-central Canada and some decent timing, a wintry storm isn't out of the question by the end of the month.
  15. CAPE
    Not always, but it almost always is in a Nina, because it tends to be super negative and persistent.
  16. CAPE
    -PNA too ofc. Need that Pac ridge to shift east some, or the favorable Atlantic may mostly be wasted.
  17. CAPE
    Trifecta. -EPO/-AO/-NAO
  18. CAPE
    Symmetry.
  19. CAPE
    Yeah the 384 hour GFS verifies verbatim frequently.
  20. CAPE
    Damn I didn't realize how close the Vikings were to blowing that game. Their knack for doing that is uncanny.
  21. CAPE
    Evidently.
  22. CAPE
    I remember the day after the 2016 storm staying below freezing here. Temps got mild quickly in the days that followed.
  23. CAPE
    6z GEFS has a really good look on the Atlantic side, and the mean implies some waves moving east leading up to Christmas with some cold pressing in.
  24. CAPE
    You should change your display name. Hurtsadelphia?
  25. CAPE
    It would be nice to see the EPS get more enthused about a -NAO in that timeframe. Even with the PAC ridge extending more poleward into the EPO domain, the location/orientation appears to favor keeping the trough out west, at least initially. Need what the GEFS is advertising in the NA in order to counter the -PNA and beat down the eastern US ridge.
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