CAPE

From Mount Holly this morning.. Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend. It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately.

Add it to the list of seasonal guidance depicting boilerplate Nina pattern during a Nina winter.

Still quite a bit of disparity between the models on the late Sat into Sun period. GFS has not waivered on the idea of 'not much to see here'. ICON and CMC, and to some degree the Euro, have trended its way. My hunch is there will be some showers and drizzle here and there with any significant rain staying pretty far south and east towards the lower Delmarva and eastern VA. Mount Holly's latest take- Complex and challenging forecast evolution during this period as the blocking pattern continues to evolve. The main players will be 1) a strong high building south over the Canadian Maritimes pushing an backdoor cold front through the region Friday night, 2) a slowly developing area of low pressure off the SE US coast, and 3) an upper level trough ejecting out of the western CONUS which will act to de-amplify and lift northward the upper level low currently over the midwest. At least some of the energy from this upper level low may split off and end up feeding into the low off the SE coast. Ultimately, how these features all interact will determine how this coastal low develops through the weekend and unfortunately that is still not certain. That said, latest runs of the ECMWF and GEM Regional have backed off a bit compared to the 0z runs of these models. However these models still bring the system farther north bringing more in the way of rain into the area for Sunday compared to the NAM and GFS.

Drinking a Master of Oranges DIPA from Aslin. Pretty good stuff.

GFS/GEFS suggesting some relaxation in the persistent -PNA in the LR. Some hope for the latter part of the month to feel more Fall-like. There sure has been a tendency towards blocking ridges recently. Maybe that persists and shifts further north over the next couple months.

Negative AO/weak PV historically brings colder air. NA blocking promotes a more favorable storm track for the MA and puts the Highs and Lows to our north in the right places. Last winter our cold air source was largely cut off by the Pac jet flooding Canada with warmth, and there wasn't a significant/sustained -EPO to promote cross polar flow and overcome the anomalous warmth there.

68 and been cloudy all day here. I'll take it. Sunday looks semi interesting with a high to the northeast and a low off the SE coast. Looks like some stiff east winds and coolish esp further east. Models disagree on rain chances, with Euro and CMC favoring some light to moderate rain for eastern third of the area while the GFS not much to see other than clouds and drizzle. ICON is sort of in between.

Theo's and Ava's are both very good. Maybe not the ideal family place but RAR Brewing is excellent and has good food too.

Looks great for getting outdoor projects done with no bugs and nice temps. We are rarely wetter than normal in a Nina. Looking forward to it.

Just enough to wet the ground here. Dry.

My money is on the QBO. Yeah it is just another nebulous index whose impact no one agrees on, but it's headed in the "good" direction and is apparently somewhat possibly maybe associated with HL blocking, so I am riding that mutha fuka like low solar activity even though that didn't work.

https://sports.yahoo.com/vic-fangio-blast-ravens-on-player-safety-late-lamar-jackson-run-was-bulls-182006153.html lol Maybe he should be more concerned about how his team got manhandled for 60 mins, rather than the Ravens running for 5 yards to end the game instead of taking a knee. If he is so concerned about injury risk, what was his team doing trying to score a trash time TD with 30 seconds left? Should have just run the ball and let the clock run out.

QBO continues to trend more negative as we head towards winter. 30 mb value for Sept is -16.56, down from -13.82 in August.

I mean, the humidity. 80 isn't awful if dewpoints are reasonable. Remarkable how tropical we can still get here in October.

We should be used to extended summer by now. If we are lucky actual Fall will start sometime in November. Leaves might hit peak color by early December.

Denver was 3-0 against winless teams. Then the Ravens came to town. Ravens still have their own issues, but the Broncos were exposed. Their D is pretty darn good, but they don't have a starting QB on their roster. Tough to overcome that in the NFL.

69 at 5am. "Fall".

Looks like Hollywood showed up today.

It's putrid. Outside projects in October should not feature profuse sweating and multiple showers. I'm done for the day, inside with a beer watching football.

Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November.

Yeah 75-80 with lows in the 60s is not exactly ideal Fall weather. Big picture looks like above normal going forward. As long as we can avoid 85-90 I guess we should be content lol.

Hasn't rained here in over a week, but seedlings have emerged nicely, thanks to the sprinkler and mild temps.

There was one other event here, ofc the big storm had the dry slot east of I-95, so it wasn't even that big. That winter sucked because it was a torch outside of about 10 days.

Like I said, location dependent. For central and esp eastern areas, looks like late week into next weekend will be the time period for chances of more significant rain. Different story for places to the west/sw, as they will be closer to the mid south upper low as it opens and moves NE. WPC QPF through day 5:

Shower chances but not a washout, and also location dependent. Outside of a chance of thundershowers late Monday, doesn't look like much more than periods of light rain/drizzle here and there for most until maybe later in the week.