CAPE

Between runs. We live for Euro.

The offense actually was missing more key parts for more of the season and still finished top 10. Roman gets a pass based on that I guess. As for Wink, I think it is probably more big picture and multifaceted. First off, the defense was having major issues earlier in the season when they were mostly healthy- remember the blown assignments/miscommunications leading to huge plays? Also very few takeaways. The Raven's D will have a lot of new faces next year- I would expect most of the old guys on the D-line will be gone due to retirement or no interest in bringing them back. Jimmy Smith likely is gone. They probably wanted to go a different direction philosophically, and with all the likely changes in personnel they figured it was time to start fresh with new D-coordinator. Teams are interested in Wink based on the success over the last 3 seasons so he will have no problem getting a job

Mutual decision, which means they weren't going to extend him and he wanted to move on knowing that. As for Roman, I guess they are content having a good running game with HS level passing schemes.

We can talk about why Wink is gone but Roman remains.

Yeah I mentioned this earlier when it first came out. 6z was a good run, even if Ji didn't like it.

I have had way more snow here in March than December in recent winters. More than Feb in some cases.

Is that like a semi?

6z EPS looks pretty similar to 0z. A slight shift eastward maybe but I would call it noise.

Those are kind of boring now lol. Depending on how it plays out I will either be in Rehoboth or stay home and go hiking in the snow at Tuckahoe. If it snows I'll get some photos.

Haven't paid much attention to the Canadian because it died on WB, but the 0z GEPS snowfall mean doesn't look bad for the region through Sunday am. A general 2-4".

Yeah it starts to pivot east. Would be good for places just east and southeast of my yard.

I thought you were back in the 'swamp'.

A little better than 0z. More precip further inland to our south on the mean with tighter clustering of member lows east of NC .

Might just be noise and the GFS could locked in to not getting that energy involved. Time will tell. Maybe the Euro is ready to take back the throne.

To a lesser degree though. More of that energy is getting ejected than previous runs. 6z 18z yesterday Still work to do, and still time.

2-4" is fine with me over zero.

6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region.

Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday.

Mount Holly Discussion this morning. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent.

onward to zero zulu

Tad better than 12z

I would expect the 18z EPS to look pretty good.