CAPE

As for the talked about pattern "flip" for Feb, this is still a pretty cold look for the first week, and it might offer some better chances with more of a gradient type pattern. The risk would be storm tracks to the north/west.

Between the energy coming in over the the top of the amplified ridge out west and the TPV sending lobes southward, the northern stream is a chaotic mess. This is a pattern that requires nearly perfect timing. The problem with Tues-Wed is we are in between vortex lobes as the ss wave approaches. So the coldest air has departed from the previous one and the next one is dropping down over the upper MW just as the southern wave is moving east underneath. There are 2 problems as depicted on the GFS- the flow is compressed in front of new trough dropping south which dampens the southern wave as it moves east, and we aren't very cold as we are 'in between' troughs. At this range guidance surely doesn't have the features and timing quite right, so we keep watching. I have no idea on the next one, other than it remains a window for something. The tendency overall in this (progressive) pattern is for low pressure to form offshore along the strong thermal boundary.

He lives for the op runs and the digital snow they depict.

Nah I gave this one up for dead. It can't pull me back in. If it can somehow get a few inches to Rehoboth I might consider hanging out at Dogfish, drinking a few beers and watch it snow.

Snow TV in Easton for the last hour or so. Coming down hard now but back edge isn't far.

Notoriously difficult to predict at range. The QBO is favorable but I believe the connection to HL blocking is nebulous, especially in isolation.

Not much of a signal on the latest ensembles for a storm over the next week. The general theme is too much NS energy flattening any southern wave that comes east, with some coastal development offshore where the thermal boundary is located. Need some amplification to get precip onshore though. Otherwise it's snow for the fish. Still time for modeled location and timing shifts associated with NS energy shedding off the TPV.

Cold. Mostly sunny though!

Don't worry it will be plenty cold by this evening.

Bipolar HRRR looks relatively decent at 0z for anyone who actually cares. I'm sure it will look shit in another hour.

43. Moon looks cool.

Not sure why y'all pay any mind to LR op runs. GEFS looks pretty cold next week. Moisture is yet to be determined. Looks like offshore low development is still favored in general.

Going with an inch max for my yard, given these anafrontal deals are precarious at best with cold chasing precip. Models tend to overdo the frozen. If there is some decent Fgen as some guidance is depicting, then maybe there is a chance for an 'overperformer' here.

Yes that will bring it back. Reverse jinx.

So this is THE storm now.

6z GFS was bad enough, but the GEFS wouldn't even tempt me to travel to Rehoboth.

Hopefully this weekend works out, but mid to late next week still looks quite interesting on the means.

We are getting into the critical time period for any meaningful changes to occur. Fighting progressive flow, a positively tilted trough, and the shortwave lacks sharpness as it moves east. Euro had a sharper/deeper sw with a more neutral orientation on approach but has moved away from that in the last few runs. Ensembles all look at tad better with NW extent of precip than the ops but still a clear signal for an offshore low. Not making any predictions, but favoring a trip to the Beach to see some snow this weekend at this point.

The braided look on the WB ICON h5 vorticity panels is a neat effect.

An inch, maybe 2 still looks like a reasonable expectation to me.

Jb 93 storm finally Ens mean says any snow falling during that period will be for the fish. Get a boat and chase 500 miles east of OC?

Mount Holly thoughts- basically stay tuned, we just cant know yet. Friday night into Saturday, a wave diving southeast out of central Canada will round the base of the long wave trough axis and head east. As the mid-level wave exits the east coast of the United States surface low pressure is forecast to form off of the NC coast. The latest run of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have the low offshore, but confidence is low here. It should also be noted that the energy responsible for the surface cyclogenesis is still across northern Alaska, meaning a lot can change. Have gone ahead and kept PoPs in the chance range at this point.

The Euro digs the NS sw more and involves most of the ss energy, while the GFS leaves it behind and has a following ss wave. The lead wave ends up flat/ damped as it moves east, and the following energy is also weak, and neither are able to induce a strong enough surface low very close to the coast. CMC is kinda interesting in that it is pretty much in between, with a decently sharp sw, but it is very positively tilted/progressive, and the outcome is actually worse than the GFS. 12z Euro moved more towards a further offshore developing low, but is still decent for eastern areas. Next few runs will be telling.