CAPE

Dramatic and impressive on the visible. And scary. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Damn. Impressive but very ominous. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good.

With a more NW track, looks like there may be a decent risk of severe for I-95 and points east. Mount Holly mentioning the possibility in their AM AFD. Models are converging on the eventual track of the remnant low, with the 00z CMC making a noticeable shift northward, much more in line with the ECMWF/GFS. The consensus track would lead to the heaviest rainfall axis generally in the northern half of the CWA, with alarming QPF of 2-5+ inches in a broad region along and north of the track of the low. Meanwhile, the warm sector may sneak into the southern CWA, where a threat of strong to severe storms would exist (given sufficient instability and strong vertical shear). In short, the latest models suggest a multi-faceted and rather impactful event for the region. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as we continue to fine-tune the forecast axis of heaviest rainfall and the areas with the highest risk of severe weather.

Always have to factor in the yard to yard disparity, and (unrealistic) expectations with some of the weenie posts. I don't expect anymore than 2-3 weeks of legit winter here. The December storm was cold rain, and so winter didn't 'arrive' until late Jan. But, there was in fact a solid 3 week period where it looked and felt like winter, despite not having any real cold around. The negative AO/NAO combined with peak climo for winter weather got it done. Without the favorable HL pattern, the Pac puke would likely have completely overwhelmed and I might have ended up with something more like the previous winter, instead of hitting median snowfall.

Why play your best players in a meaningless preseason game? I don't get it. It was shaping up to be a big season for JK Dobbins...now, playing this season at all is in question.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Booming thunder here- sounds like cannons going off. Stuff coming in from the west and something developing on an outflow boundary moving in from the NE. Not sure any of it will actually hit here but sounds damn impressive.

85/77 Just disgusting. Grass and clover is overgrown but Its Friday and happy hour. Not going out there. Need to deal with it sometime this weekend, maybe.

A potentially very wet period upcoming, especially if the remnants of Ida pass over the region. With our extended summer season just beginning, get used to dealing with the mosquitoes well into October. Hopefully the Fall season will begin early this year, maybe by early November.

Central and NE MD are in the slight risk area for excessive rain.

Nice discussion by Mount Holly on the heavy rain potential for today into tonight- A rather interesting meteorological setup exists today for the Mid-Atlantic region. A large-scale midlevel ridge initially centered in the western Atlantic will retrogress slowly to the Carolina coast by 12z Saturday as it aligns with transient ridging in southeast Canada. Meanwhile, a convectively-augmented vort max will migrate slowly clockwise on the northern periphery of the ridge, generally from the eastern Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this morning to the northern Mid- Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Large-scale lift in advance of the meandering vort max will likely prove sufficient to generate scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon in our CWA via diurnal destabilization. Although there is subtle synoptic forcing as addressed above, subsynoptic lifting mechanisms will be rather weak and/or chaotic. These include orographic lift, sea/bay breezes, differential heating, etc. As a result, convection-allowing models are unsurprisingly variable in today`s convective evolution. There are, however, some similar characteristics among the guidance: (1) greater coverage versus previous days, (2) some semblance of convective propagation southward and westward, in association with ambient instability and (weak) low-level trajectories, (3) slow storm motions via weak tropospheric winds, and (4) multiple rounds of convection, with the evening/overnight rounds tied more closely to the larger- scale vort max. The greatest variability with the convective simulations is with the coverage/location of the overnight storms, with some models effectively stabilizing a large portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic from the daytime storms. Others are more aggressive in maintaining convection or developing new storms in close proximity to the vort max. Current thinking is that both scenarios will likely play out to some degree. Given the convectively-enhanced nature of the vort max (potentially exhibiting warm-core characteristics via MCV-related processes and attendant thermodynamic profiles), it would not be surprising to see more widespread convection during the afternoon/evening become more closely aligned with the track of the mid-/low-level circulation during the overnight hours.

90/72 Putrid.

We just can't know yet. One thing I do know- I am getting sick of the incessant tropical humid airmasses lately. I will be leaving for a cooler climo late next week and will return for the last week of September. It will probably still be warm and humid as eff.

Yeah looks like it will cut off the run of 90+ degree days, but not likely going to usher in a super refreshing airmass. Could end up being partly to mostly sunny though depending on where the front ends up stalling. Probably will see it get hotter again for a day or 2 early next week ahead of the more legit front.

Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

Been using this ever since the NWS decided to make theirs shiit.

Maryland is extremely diverse in its beauty. Where were you exactly?

0.80" in the bucket today so far. Over 8" for the month.

Quick downpour- picked up 0.24". More behind it though. I can hear the thunder. I was really enjoying the light to moderate rain every few days and nothing excessive over the last month. That ended Friday with 4". Tropical jungle now with skeeters and no air movement. Disgusting.

Radar looks "interesting" for here. Please miss.

GFS looks putrid through the end of the month.

2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think.

I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet.