CAPE

The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion.

It might be completely wrong, but the Euro depiction seems reasonable given the amplification of the longwave pattern and the zone of baroclinicity just offshore. I don't agree with anything close to a KU with the progressive flow, but a significant snowstorm for at least parts of the MA matches the pattern.

There have been some hints of a bit more of a wave, best seen on 850 mb vort panels, as the front progresses south on some guidance. If that happens and the precip is more robust in the colder air then maybe. Might even be a bit south of here. Outside of that I can't see this producing more than an inch or 2 anywhere.

It only goes out to hour 90 and looks pretty much the same.

These little events with cold coming in and forcing along the front are always "fun" to track. The majority of the time the cold comes in as the precip is winding down. Snow in the air to maybe an inch looks reasonable as depicted.

Heading into the middle of next week, as the trough lifts a bit the GEFS develops a bit of a -NAO, and still looks active down south.

GFS also brings the leftover energy through and tries to pop another coastal but largely fails again. No idea how this turns out, but (intuitively) I think the GFS is still figuring it out.

GFS and Euro still worlds apart at h5 for the weekend. CMC is sort of in between but closer to the GFS, as they both dampen the shortwave as it moves east.

Agree. Go with a full sized bun and a proper piece of meat.

My snow was washed away. I never cared about yours.

Wind driven snow showers when I left the house with a temp of 33. Rain total 1.16" and the temp rose to a high of 47 overnight.

General thoughts on the upcoming period from Mount Holly.. For Friday through Sunday...As the aformentioned upper-level trough continues to amplify its way into the East, our sensible weather will first be dominated by arctic high pressure centered across southeastern Canada and New England. A rather cold air mass is forecast to be in place, however incoming upper-level energy looks to initiate a wave along an offshore baroclinic zone. There is typically more uncertainty especially the details and timing this far out, however the overall pattern looks to favor some sort of cyclogenesis near or offshore of the East Coast over the weekend. We continue to maintain some chance PoPs for now in the Friday through Saturday time frame, however some guidance is slower with the storm development and delays it until Sunday.

They led the league in penalties I believe, and had 14 in this game. That makes it kinda hard to win, despite the talent. Never feel sorry for a Cowboy fan.

What a dull, boring ass coach. Was a 'safe' hire I guess. Yeah he gone.

Skippy Bayless guaranteed HIS Cowboys would win this one.

No idea.

LOL SF tried to give it away.

how bout dem cowboys?

1/3/22- 9.5" 1/7/22- 3.2" 1/16/22- 0.8" Total: 13.5"

33 and rain! Overall did better than I expected. A little padding for the snow total.

30.5 and freezing rain, although I don't think icing is going to be an issue here. Should be above freezing in another hour or so.

That's a function of the highly amplified (and progressive) pattern. Anticyclonic wave breaking is going to send chunks of the TPV southward, and timing is everything. Its volatile. Then when those vortices rotate out and up into the NA, wave breaking can induce a big transient ridge in the NAO space. That was a radical ass GFS run. Turbulent flow on the largest scale. Love it. Buckle up!