CAPE

Not liking the look of that radar heading this way right now.

Well that post got a decent haul.

Both the latest CanSIPS and CFS have a pretty classic crapola Nina look for the winter months. Ofc none of these climate models are very good, but based on historic Nina climo and recent history, tough to bet against a predominant PAC ridge.

Detailed and good read as usual. Hope it ends up mostly being wrong. Ofc with the primary rain shield well NW, any significant rain here is tied to the convection later today, and it has gotten a tad dry.

Don't get me wrong...love to capture a shot of a tornado in the field over yonder, as it rips up the feed corn and passes harmlessly to the NE, west of my house.

We enhanced risk. Luckily, we always fail. Ofc this one time... watch it happen.

Well this sounds a tad scary. Would be nice to not have trees falling on the house just as I prepare to leave the country for a much needed vacation. Synoptically, this will be an impressive evolution as tropical and mid-latitude meteorology collide. The remnants of Ida are tracking steadily northeastward through the Tennessee Valley, and its cloud pattern remains well-defined on satellite. The most prominent feature of this setup is the strong (140 kt) upper jet streak which will build into northern New England on Wednesday. Ida`s remnants will track straight into its right entrance region, where large scale upper divergence is maximized. The system will begin to interact with the upper jet and the lingering frontal boundary currently over our area. After days of weakening over land as a tropical system, Ida`s remnants will reintensify as a highly dynamic, baroclinic low, but still with tropical moisture. Strong increases in low and mid level winds, frontogenetic forces, and low level convergence will allow a dramatic increase in the coverage and intensity of the rain shield as it moves in. Meanwhile, as the system takes on traditional frontal characteristics, an unstable warm sector will likely overspread southern portions of the area, contributing to severe weather potential. Overall, this continues to look like a high impact event. Details... First, a note on timing: The bulk of the impacts are expected to occur throughout the daytime Wednesday, Wednesday night, and early (mainly predawn) Thursday. This represents a slight earlier shift in timing. Severe weather concerns will peak from about mid afternoon to late evening Wednesday, around 2-10PM. Hydro concerns will focus more on the later afternoon through the overnight, with residual impacts into Thursday especially on slower responding rivers. Today`s guidance overall showed a small but definite trend northward with the highest QPF. However, that followed a small southward shift last night. So again, noise level changes. Our rainfall forecast was changed little, with a slight northward shift in the axis of heavier QPF and a slight trend upward overall in rainfall amounts as CAM guidance certainly supports the potential for a widespread swath of 4 to 6", with locally over 6" possible. This will be more than sufficient to bring both widespread flash/urban flooding and widespread main stem river flooding, discussed more in the hydrology section. One area where concern has increased today is severe weather potential. With the more amplified trend, wind fields are looking robust across the area from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. As mentioned, the warm sector of the system will overspread approximately the southern half of the area, and that is where severe weather concerns are maximized. Southeasterly surface flow will veer to to southwest with height, with good speed shear and directional shear in the lowest levels especially strong. There are some very concerning 31.12z CAM runs such as the 3km NAM, ARW, and HRRR. Soundings from those models over southern New Jersey and Delmarva show long, clockwise curved hodographs reflective of 0-1km SRH in the 200-300 range and 0-3km SRH in the 300-400 range, and 40 to 50 kt southwesterly bulk shear vectors. These values on their own are not enough to produce severe weather, but it is looking like they will be paired with 1000 to 1500J of SB CAPE across our southern zones, providing the necessary instability for convection to grow vertically enough to be dangerous. The very high shear and sufficient instability, combined with high moisture and associated low LCLs, would create a highly favorable environment for tornadoes. If these trends hold, several tornadoes, including a chance for a strong tornado, would be possible especially over southern New Jersey and Delmarva, with the risk decreasing to the north. Some convectively enhanced damaging straight line wind gusts are also possible.

Leaving Friday, as long as I get a negative pcr test result lol.

England. Should be cool yes. Hopefully dry at times.

Just as I am leaving the country. I am sure it will be warm and humid again when I return.

SPC AC 310554 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes could occur across the Mid-Atlantic States as the remnants of Ida move through the region on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Tropical Depression Ida is forecast to be centered near the KY/TN/VA border intersection early Wednesday morning. Continued northeastward motion of the system is anticipated, taking it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. Moist low-level southerly flow ahead of this system will likely bring mid 70s dewpoints into the Mid-Atlantic region, helping to increase instability. Additionally, a more banded storm structure is probable by this stage in its life cycle, result in the potential for modest diurnal heating between the bands. Current guidance suggest afternoon temperatures across much of NC and VA will be in the 80s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These conditions are expected to result in sufficient instability for deeper, more persistent updrafts. In addition to the favorable thermodynamics, strong low to mid-level flow will persist around the remnants of Ida. In fact, some guidance suggests the system may slightly deepen as it encounters increased baroclinicity and undergoes the transition to an extra-tropical system. All of these factors indicate a tornado threat will persist throughout the eastern quadrant of the system as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic. A few convectively augmented wind gusts are possible as well.

Slight risk for much of VA, MD, DE.

From Mount Holly morning AFD- Meanwhile, the southern portions of the area will likely experience some period of time in the system`s warm sector. Though the main impacts of this system may occur after Wednesday`s peak heating, substantial warm/moist advection beneath very favorable large-scale ascent from a strong and intensifying anticyclonic jet streak in the Northeast will likely keep a modestly unstable thermodynamic profile through the overnight hours within this region. Shear profiles are also appearing favorable, with 0-6 km bulk shear 30-40 kt and low- level SRH exceeding 200 J/kg. Convection in this region will likely be organized and potentially rotating as the low moves through, with isolated strong/severe wind gusts and even a couple of tornadoes possible. The SPC has upgraded the southern half of the CWA to a slight risk for Wednesday night, which is quite reasonable given the evolving pattern.

So what happens after hour 56?

Missing the storms here too. Saw a double rainbow from the stuff that just missed to my east though.

6z GFS does have a qpf minimum in our local desert regions.

6z GFS doesn't look much different. Widespread 2-4" is hardly scraps. I mean, is anyone actually expecting a foot of rain from a remnant tropical low entrained in a progressive front?

The ICON is usually pretty steady and not prone to extreme solutions, but I kinda doubt it's gonna be close with it's current depiction.

With the potential incoming deluge this week, I am glad it has been dry here the last week. After almost 5" a week ago, only about a tenth in the last 6 days. All that rain brought the late summer skeeters out though. They had not been an issue all summer.

The GFS has pretty significantly adjusted southward with the track of the remnant low over the last 2 runs, more in line with most other guidance. Now takes the low track from about Charlottesville to Dover. Brings the more widespread heavier rains through our area. The best chances locally for severe would probably be from lower S MD/ lower eastern shore into eastern VA.

Mount Holly AFD discussing the range of possibilities based on latest guidance and model discrepancies. If you don't want to read it all, the short version is.. GFS lol. The main story of the midweek period continues to be the potential for widespread heavy rain and associated hydro impacts primarily Wednesday into early Thursday in association with the remnants of Ida. Guidance remains fairly consistent with this threat, and many of the ingredients for a significant precipitation event appear to be in place including: 1.) Deep tropical moisture (PWATs potentially peaking near or even above 2.25 inches) being advected into the area in association with Ida`s remnants. 2.) Considerable UL synoptic lift in the right-entrance region of an UL jet streak positioned over the St.Lawrence River , and mid- lvl heights fall and DCVA ahead of both the northern trough and Ida`s circulation. 3.) Likely modest baroclinic forcing and low-lvl convergence associated with Ida`s circulation and developing fronts as it transitions extratropical. Although there are some discrepancies among guidance regarding the timing (the GFS per usual is faster) and track of the remnant low (the GFS is a northern outlier at the moment), there exists fairly good consensus for a widespread 2-4 inches with the potential for locally higher amounts. The only small positive will be that the system will be progressive with most of the totals likely coming in the period between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (as mentioned still some minor timing discrepancies). As mentioned in the previous discussion there is a conditional tornado/severe threat if the remnants of Ida track far enough northwest which would result in the unstable warm sector encompassing more of our CWA. Fortunately, the consensus outside of the GFS would confine this threat to Delmarva and far southern NJ, but if a GFS-like track over the heart of the CWA were to verify the threat could reach up into the I-95 corridor.

Looks like Dobbins is done for the season. MRI will confirm shortly. Totally sucks. Feel bad for him as he was likely going to have a monster season. Ravens will manage with Gus the Bus and others, as long as the OL is healthy and gels with the new pieces.

He may see a spin up dust devil though.

Like this? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092021#tabInner1

Feels comparatively amazing out there this morning. Dewpoint is 66 with a temp of 69 and a breeze. Just did some mowing and did not sweat at all. Incredible. The backdoor front made it through, but it wont last long as the front will be heading back north in short order and the soup will be back on.