CAPE

I am prepping. Drinking a strong coffee with egg Nog spiked with bourbon and Fireball as the creamer.

Sorry @Weather Will

CMC CMC ens

Temp up to 21. Should be 33 just as the precip arrives here.

Weeeeeeeee!

Low of 12 here. Currently 13. Looking forward to wind driven rain with temps rising into the 40s later.

That is probably the least likely option given what we see advertised on guidance right now, but with no blocking a more amplified wave could result in a hugger or inland runner.

Snowfall mean for next weekend into the following Monday is 3-5" across the region on the 0z CMC ens and EPS, with the higher amounts along and SE of I-95, and a bit further south on the EPS.

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs CMC has been the most bullish on a winter storm for this period.

That's the mean. The signal is there for something next weekend into the following week. No it's not going to look anything like an extreme solution on a single op run at day 7. GFS is still the GFS at range.

Sun into Mon-

HH GEFS for Sat

The strength and timing of NS sw diving in behind ended up being the nail in the coffin so to speak, but before that there were inherent flaws out in front. The Arctic cold was always fleeting, and the High was always exiting stage right, and that was always going to turn the flow more easterly. And again, with a better look up top- blocked flow/low off the Maritimes and HP further west, we likely don't get that sw diving in like that. That is neither here nor there at this point though.

Timing is even more important when the flow is progressive. Cold doesn't stay around long. Underscores the importance for at least some blocking up top. That big ocean low could have been a nice 50-50 and given us the confluence we needed, but it was flying up through the Maritimes with no block to slow it. Could have still worked, but again, timing. That NS sw probably would not have been an issue either had the look up top been better, ofc then we would have had the southern slider failure mode option lol.

Plenty can change at this range. Even though we have a pattern that can deliver some impressive cold, the flow is progressive(no blocking) so it largely comes down to timing. No way to know how that will turn out at this juncture.

It certainly could have worked if the randomness(luck) would have turned out a little differently. That said, the overall synoptics up top as advertised leading in was just "off" from what I want to see for my location. I know where you are the warts can be overcome more easily, so we often differ on our perspectives of what is favorable for a good outcome. Rapidly retreating cold air mass is a big red flag for me.

CMC and Euro ens look pretty good for a light/moderate event next weekend. As advertised the higher probs would be just south and towards the coast. This will likely change some.

Check out the 12z CMC for the upcoming period. Imagine this place if it played out like that lol.

Skip it, unless you are into (doomed) love stories. Watch Das Boot.

lol I know. Just saying enjoy the weather you get! No other choice.

The means are hinting for 24-25th but implies a bit too far offshore and developing further north. Have seen some decent hits on recent op runs too. Plenty of time.

CMC ens also looks interesting late week into next weekend for a little something. Not seeing a clear signal on the means for the following week but I would be surprised if we aren't teased by a coastal or 2.

The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels.