CAPE

Steady, soaking rain here now as that band has expanded east. Up to 0.75".

0.62" here, but all that fell late afternoon/evening yesterday. That N-S band has been just to my west overnight. Places along the Bay have received 2"+ amounts. Guidance shows it shifting east later this morning but also weakening.

I was at terrapin on Kent Island when the initial part of that N-S training band hit. Got soaked. Drove out of it heading home, and now looking at radar and see that area continues to get it pretty good. Meanwhile 0.38" here at home. Honestly wasn't expecting anything here before tonight.

Heaviest rain looks to occur along the N-S lying stationary front, which seems to favor central PA into C MD and N VA based on latest guidance. Still uncertain exactly where that front will be and how it interacts with the upper low off the coast. WPC has central MD including DC in a slight risk for excessive rain D2.

55 here currently.

Best chance of hitting/exceeding 90 this week looks to be tomorrow, and more likely for places west of DC.

49 here this morning.

A spilt flow pattern setting up this week.

Repeating pattern continues for now. The next NS closed low flattens the upper ridge before it propagates east, with the tendency for low pressure off the NE coast to keep our region coolish/ inhibit the eastward advance of big heat.

Yeah plenty of good resources on YouTube on interpreting Skew-T plots, hodographs, etc.

Euro has the same idea but pinches off the low further east and then retrogrades towards the SE coast. Needless to say our area would be quite a bit warmer in that scenario.

0z GFS offers up an interesting look for the midweek period. As the C. US ridge nudges east, it begins to flatten and bridge with a building N Atlantic ridge, sending a closed upper low southward. Would be quite the contrast with much cooler temps and possibly wet across the eastern half of the region.

Low of 53

1 out of every 10 maybe?

72/50 Feels like a quintessential early November day in the MA.

66 here. A couple weak fronts will pass through today bringing the really nice air, and also kick the winds up. Temps probably max out in the lower 70s today for most.

94/71 Tomorrow shall be stellar.

Should be nice by this evening. Even this afternoon with the heat, it will be quite windy and dewpoints will be dropping.

Southern sliders are a miss here.

Not even a 90 degree day in my forecast after today. Upper ridge axis to our west nudges east, gets knocked down by another trough. Repeat. Seasonal trend.

No idea lol. It will show every possible pattern multiple times between now and late Fall. I just took a look and saw what it was advertising and figured it was perfect to post in a winter discussion thread in June.

Only about 800 more runs and we might have a better idea.

Looks/sounds like something decent incoming here in Easton. Everything has missed my yard so far this morning.

Always a good bet. I would disengage now if I were you.

lol @ op runs at range Given the look of the longwave pattern on the means, temps will moderate next week as the upper ridge nudges east, but I will take the under on those temps. Whatever heat we get, it again looks to be pretty short lived, and I would expect a few days in the low 90s with the big heat staying to our SW. Ofc with flow more out of the west downsloping (compressional heating) could boost temps some. Should be a dry heat. Before we all fry next week, the upcoming weekend looks incredible, much like the weather we enjoyed the weekend before last.