CAPE

Sweet. Process control + beer is hard to beat in my book. Looks like you are doing PID control?

Mount Holly AFD on the long range- Overview... Synoptically, a consistent upper level pattern will be in place for the long term. Broad, strong ridging remains centered over the Intermountain West, with troughing over New England. This places our region in the belt of mid-level northwesterly flow between these features. Surface flow will also favor a westerly direction, which will mostly keep the oppressively high humidity away from the region. However, the temperatures themselves remain near to above average, due to the effects of the upstream ridging and efficient surface heating thanks to some downsloping effects with the westerly flow. Regarding rain chances, next week should feature plenty of dry hours, but will probably not be without its shower and storm chances as well. Unlike what we`ve seen most of the month, this pattern of relatively lower dew points and faster flow aloft is not very conducive to heavy rain and flash flooding. However, with that faster mid-level flow, the passage of multiple weak frontal systems and/or fast-moving mid-level impulses is possible. This should continue to bring at least sporadic opportunities for convection. This flow regime is also a classic example of what`s sometimes referred to as the "ring of fire". Severe, long-lived mesoscale convective systems can occasionally propagate from the Midwest to the East Coast in these patterns, often occurring with poor predictability more than a day or two out. With this pattern looking to be locked in place for awhile, this will be something to keep an eye on.

GEFS pulls the upper ridge further west for the beginning of August. Who knows beyond that.

77. Gorgeous out.

Nice morning. 62.

Not seeing major heat in the east with this look. Not too bad heading into August.

No big heat for you. Head NW.

Picked up 0.35" from the northern edge of that cluster that mostly moved to my south. There was a refreshing gust front as it was moving in. Sun back out now.

Pouring now. Maybe some hail in that cell just to my west.

Nice outflow/gust front from that cluster to my SW. Major T&L with that. Power went off briefly. Might be something forming on the north edge of that. Getting some rain now.

From SPC- Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt with straight hodographs, MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and steep low-level lapse rates will favor a mix of clusters and splitting cells capable of producing damaging gusts and isolated large hail until the storms shift offshore by this evening. I'm down for that. My yard is probably due for a miss though.

This week is as advertised-normal temps and dry, but by the weekend temps and humidity will begin to creep up. Should be some scattered storm chances too esp late in the weekend into next week. Late July in the MA is never comfy for very long.

Smoke and 80.

Not much chance for meaningful rain this week. Drought thread might get some action.

Might not even hit 80 here today. Currently 78.

We lookin good. Jan even better.

Best chances for some scattered showers/storms this week looks to be Wed and again Friday.

2.24" total for the day. Weed lawn should be looking good.

First day of MA Fall!

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Kent County in central Delaware... Central Caroline County in eastern Maryland... * Until 200 AM EDT. * At 1054 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have already fallen in spots. An additional inch is possible. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Dover, Smyrna, Milford, Denton, Harrington, Camden, Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Cheswold, Bowers, and Goldsboro.

Seems to be slowly winding down now. Still some moderate rain falling. Up to 1.85" for the day. 0.3" of that fell with the quick storm that rolled through earlier.

Probably some flash flooding happening here. One of the mesos had this depicted pretty well- might have been the 3k NAM. Highly charged storm. Power hanging on for now.

Its rockin' here now. Lots of T&L and pouring. This really blossomed just to my SW for once, instead of dying on the doorstep.

Caught the northern edge of that broken line moving across over here. Booming thunder and heavy rain but didn't last long. Picked up a quick quarter inch.