CAPE

This could also be the last tick and it starts to tick south again. Seen that scenario way too many times The low isn't trending NW. This has to do with the timing and the sharpness of the shortwave. The wave is moving along a strong cold front where winds will be shifting to Northwesterly. You know what the only 'failure mode' is here.

I would be pretty surprised if that ends up being the issue with this setup.

I'll throw this in here. At this range and especially with the apparent continued uncertainty, the ensemble mean may provide some hints of whether this trends better in the next few runs. This might suggest a bit better. Gets over an inch of snow just up to DC and over to Dover.

On to the storm after the failed storm? Lots of vortices flying around. This should be fun.

Nice to have some decent rain for a change. 0.43"

The EURO/EPS is slower with the cold, and the precip with the trailing piece is mostly SE of our region by the time it's cold enough. CMC is similar but further SE. The 6z GFS/GEFS looks more like the other 2 globals now- probably a bit of snow on the backend for some of the region but the 0z run depicting possibly a more widespread 'moderate' snow looks like an outlier for now.

12z GEFS looks kinda interesting. The mean implies rain ending as snow.

How do things usually trend for us?

Keeping us interested. How will it "trend"?

6z GFS looks decent.

Not looking great, but like I said yesterday, a 'good' outcome with this realistically is rain ending as snow with a coating or maybe a bit more, if there is a bit of a trailing wave. GEFS still suggests a period of snow is possible as the cold comes in, while the EPS has the trailing wave further southeast- best chance for the cold to catch the precip for a little snow as depicted is probably eastern VA. Still time for this to degrade into the usual case of cold chasing rain though lol.

Don't get me wrong, the historical data is clear about the importance of a -AO (and NAO) for cold and above avg snow in and around the DC area. I am happy with snowfall of any magnitude, but clearly bigger storms- which is almost always how we get above average snowfall- are favored when we have HL blocking. Now maybe that data isn't as reliable now and esp going forward due to a warming climate, but that is conjecture at this point.

This is certainly a colder look than we have seen should it verify. I guess we will see if clippers still exist, and if so, whether or not they can still track far enough south. But yeah not much help in the AO/NAO domain as advertised. Chilly and dry would at least make it feel more like winter. We really need the MJO to keep progressing into the better phases or this decent Pac look likely won't persist. If the forcing craps out in 7 or just as it gets to 8 then re-fires near the MC, the Pac ridge will retro and strengthen again and we will be back where we were, and maybe with no Atlantic help. I remain optimistic though. Intuition!

I see the optimistic half cycle of the weather weenie bipolar waveform has ended, and we are approaching the negative peak, 'gloom and doom'.

Getting snow with the colder air just coming in is a tough one. Really need a pretty healthy wave but not too amped and ofc timing. Always timing. A realistic 'good' outcome here is probably a few hours of snow on the tail end with a coating to a couple inches. That's probably just my intuitive thoughts on the situation though.

The signal is there on the GEFS, but suggestive of a progressive/weakish trailing wave, and a decent chance the precip exits before much cold can get involved. That said, there are 9 or 10 members that imply a coating to as much as a few inches for at least part of this region.

The southern energy hasn't come ashore yet. Not properly sampled.

Ensemble guidance in general suggesting a significantly -WPO, slightly -EPO, and slightly negative/neutral PNA in the LR. AO/NAO look generally neutral. Also seeing a possible southward displacement of TPV over Hudson Bay. That type of pattern should provide more cold air chances for the central and eastern US.

6z GFS is more amplified with the NS energy getting involved/phasing, but the depiction at the surface is a little odd based on the upper level look. Upshot is it's a NE snowstorm this run. 0z Euro/EPS has a much weaker wave tracking along the boundary and the cold air is late to the game. CMC leaning this way as well.

Looks like Truckee has a good 3 feet of snow otg.

Avg annual snowfall must be higher a couple hundred miles east of me. Baroclinic zone is foo far offshore during much of winter. Fish snow. Ji was wrong about me living in the ocean, but I probably should.

Ha they always fail, but half the fun of this silly hobby is just having something to track. A chance. After a prolonged period of 'nice' weather with really no shot, this probably is the first legit chance for a light, maybe moderate frozen event for at least part of this subforum outside the highlands.

As depicted this run, pretty textbook for a moderate snow event. Notice how the Highs and Lows are in all the right places.

CAPE storm is still alive.

Eh, a shake up in the pattern might be good. We are damn good at failure regardless. Let the Pacific drive and hope it's not cutters followed by cold/dry. Maybe we do a mini version of 2014.