CAPE

HRRR has my yard on the NW edge. It could be right, I suppose.

Prefacing a post by stating no radar hallucination, = radar hallucination.

LWX does mention the storms out to the west ahead of Elsa/Else in their AFD.. Ahead of Elsa, hi-res guidance continues to pick up on some spotty showers and thunderstorms out ahead of Elsa. These primarily seem to be west of the Blue Ridge and then continuing into northern MD, before pushing off to the north. Given the approaching upper trough, and of course Elsa as well, could see a few damaging wind gusts in any storms this afternoon. Instability won`t be nearly what we have seen in recent days, but looks to be in the 1000-1500 range given the forecast amounts from the 12z IAD sounding. Any storms should quickly dissipate as Else inches closer and subsidence around the periphery builds into the region. By this point though, Else will become the primary focus, as rain pushes into southern Maryland early this evening.

CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Turd flushed.

He clearly isn't here to discuss weather. Even in banter he is just spewing cryptic nutter shit.

Well before you bash the Euro, go to TT and check the GFS over the past 4-5 cycles. Hardly stellar from run to run. One of the runs had a tenth or less for most of the eastern shore.

In most cases the display name is a giveaway.

You sure the GFS is going to be correct with the sharp cutoff? There has been variability in its track and intensity over the last few days.

Surprised some of y'all found him to be "entertaining". Can spot these dudes from their initial post.

75 this morning. Tropical.

Oh look, a low grade troll with a boring shtick.

Drinking a Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA. A classic. Been ages since I have had this. So similar to DFH 90 min IPA. Both are outstanding. This is a bit more dank imo. DFH is higher abv.

It will have been over land for quite a stretch before it arrives at our latitude, so it likely will start the transition to ET. Could regenerate again when/if it emerges offshore of the DE/NJ coast.

HH GFS a bit further NW and stronger/more consolidated.

Sounds fun! Looking forward your photos and vids.

The underrated ICON is rock steady with its solution. Almost identical to previous runs, but gets good precip a tad bit further NW. Solid hit for I-95 and east.

A 'southwestern' hardscape is the answer!

lol no. All guidance must be considered though. And Elsa will be rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it approaches our latitude. What's the JMA got?

18z NAM barely has a drop of rain here lol.

Nastiest day of the summer so far here. High of 92 with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Currently 90.

Latest AFD From Mount Holly on Elsa- Overview: Tropical Storm Elsa will move over, or just east of our area Thursday night into Friday morning, with additional storms possible Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. A brief break in active weather is expected on Saturday behind the front. Details: Guidance has continued to shift slightly west with the track of Elsa, with the consensus track now taking the low over portions of Delmarva and then into NJ Thursday night into Friday morning. Given this shift in track, the threat to our area has increased and thus a tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal NJ, southern Delmarva and adjacent marine zones. Regarding impacts, much will still depend upon the exact track and structure of the system when it reaches the area. Most of the TC phase-space diagrams would indicate the system will likely be in at least the early stages of ET by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently we could begin to see some of the typical structural changes that accompany ET, including a more asymmetric wind field, and the heaviest rain axis shifting just left of center. This naturally complicates the forecast, however given the current track would expect that Tropical Storm force winds would largely be confined to the immediate NJ/DE coasts (and adjacent waters), with the heaviest rainfall largely focused along I-95 and points SE. That being said, any further westward shifts would bring stronger winds further inland and shift the heaviest rainfall axis further inland. Given the potential for 1-3 inches of precipitation (with locally higher amounts not out of the question), have elected to issue a Flash Flood Watch with the afternoon package... it currently encompasses the entire area, given the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of rainfall.

You really should head down.

Basically confined to SE VA. Gusts to 40 on the lower MD Eastern shore and S DE are not a big deal. I am sure I'll manage with the 22 mph gusts.

I did a multiquote in the other thread. He only has like 6 posts so maybe he is a very occasional poster or just passing through. Besides, I have talked to enough lawn 'experts' to know the situation here is futile.