CAPE

Looks like maybe a chance of scattered showers but mostly rain free, esp by afternoon. Should be at least partly sunny.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow into Friday per WPC. Trend on guidance has definitely been away from a slowly moving/stalling front. Good news, as the weekend looks to be mostly dry and Sunday looks especially nice. It should also lower the risk for heavy/excessive rains. Probably a general 1-2" with some locally higher amounts and some jip zones. The usual.

Did you notice how people don't hand wring over the LR when there is only heat and garden variety storms to track.

Enjoy that Firestone Parabola. It is outstanding. Sip it. Savor it.

Made it to 90 here today. Highest dp was 73. Not atrocious.

Drinking an Aslin Double Orange Starfish NE style DIPA for HH. Very good.

If it's marginal, and if the heat does not look to be prolonged(it doesn't) they may decide not to issue an advisory.

They do, but there is a criteria for issuance. I know it's HI of 105 over here, which is why there has not been one issued. Highest HI here has been 98. There is a chance tomorrow.

Mount Holly bullish on heavy rain here. Forecast is 2-4" from Wed night through Friday evening. More rain possible beyond that.

Lots of bright red.

And this.

The haze is a combo of water vapor and pollution. This has been a short lived "heat wave"- the ridge is already weakening. Also the low level air has been pretty well mixed. If we had a ridge sitting overhead for multiple days with an inversion/subsidence, you would see some haze develop.

Yes. Verbatim there would be some morning showers mostly for eastern areas.

Mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s.

12z GFS continues to trend towards moving moisture out faster. Sunday is looking mostly dry.

Eh, more of a meeting in the middle. I would argue the GFS caved more. Look what it did at h5 just over the last 3 runs. And still time for more adjustments either way.

The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM.

It looks like the major global models are finally converging on a similar outcome for the weekend. The 3 ens means look nearly the same now at h5. Euro is still the most progressive and would give the area a mostly dry Sunday, while the GFS and CMC still have some showers/rain moving through with the upper low. The overall trend looks drier as we head through the day Sunday, so by evening hopefully any showers will have exited.

Is that better than pummeled?

I think that starts in November and runs through March. The rest of the time the algorithm defaults to zero.

Mount Holly AFD. Just like we said- we just cant know at this juncture lol. Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will impact the area on Thursday with the passage of that cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt, and PWATs will be in excess of 2.5 inches. From there, conditions become quite unsettled going into the Holiday weekend. The front gets hung up just south of the region, and a deep upper trough with a closed upper low will dig in from the west. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will impact the area Friday through Saturday. From there, things become even more uncertain. The ECMWF is much more progressive with the passage of that closed low, with it over eastern Canada by Sunday afternoon. The GFS, however, has it over the Great Lakes. Although there may be a break in the precip from Saturday night into Sunday morning, the divergence between the two models makes it hard to determine the pattern for Sunday afternoon through Monday. If the GFS wins out, it will be rainy. If the ECMWF wins out, Sunday and Monday will be dry.

88 here but dp is 75 so it feels pretty gross.

What's the 15 day mean snowfall map look like?

There should be plenty of water for the weeds after the lawns all fry over the next few days.