CAPE

It likely won't materialize, but that look would have been nice a few weeks ago.

High of 38. Been outside most of the day. Brisk but awesome with the warm sun. Cut up and stacked some oak to be split (later) for next winter, and continued to pick away at the mulching.

Yeah the 84 storm was fun but also depressing as a Colts fan. We knew that was inevitable though, as the drunken asshole owner had been shopping them around for years. May he rest in piss.

Since I have lived over here, I have seen one snow "event" in April (the 5th maybe?), and it was 2" and fell in the evening. Cant recall the year but probably early/mid 90s. Once it stopped it melted. Barely a trace the next morning lol. It was wrap around from a big, slow moving storm off of the NE coast that retrograded. Very odd way to get snow and could probably only happen in the Spring. Have had some good March snow events in the past several years ofc, including the one in 2018 on the 20th. I remember a 3" snowfall at the end of March and it was pretty localized over this way- it fell at night(1990 maybe?). Other than that the only significant late March snow event that stands out was when I lived up in Carroll county, and it was the 1984 March 29th (Mayflower) storm. That was around 6", and probably the most sloppy wet snow ever- more like compacted slush during the daylight hours. Ratios were probably like 4:1.

That look will probably never come to fruition, but how funny would it be if it did when it would be of little use. But yes pretty much all of the long term guidance is suggesting a chilly period for the end of the month. We need a pretty anomalously cold pattern to get it done at that point though. My interest is rapidly waning and the chances of getting significant snow in the lowlands at the end of March is pretty low.

Low of 21. The minuscule amount of snow I got blew away/sublimated in the bitter dry wind of last night.

Took a quick drive to Ridgely to pick up a pizza, no more than 3 miles sw of here, and they jacked my snow. Looked like 3/4", which would have put me over the 20" mark.

There was a time or 2 this winter where I could have reported a tenth, but didn't bother. Wth this time I will. Lame ass event couldn't even manage to catapult me over 20". 3/12/22- 0.1" Total: 19.6"

Yeah even though Dec sucked, and Feb and March(so far) produced next to nothing, I can't hate this winter because January was nearly perfect.

That's probably what I would go with here but its hard to tell with all the drifting.

The yellow returns on the radar seem to be were the legit flizzard action is. Seeing that mostly pass just to my SW and east over DE the past hour or so.

Locations like yours are just subject to a multitude of issues with any given event, but it's not always the same issue. Two that are always present are UHI and proximity to the bay, and then lack of elevation, which is the primary issue here. I have zero UHI to contend with, and I am on the interior upper part of the eastern shore, so not close to the moderating influences of either bay. The ocean effs us both over when we get a wrapped up coastal or one that tracks just inland. You can miss out on marginal events(me too) where places just to your NW do well, but then I can cash in on offshore tracking lows like this past January, and you mostly miss those too lol. So all that, plus bad snow climo for the region in general, and it can suck pretty bad.

If some of the earlier runs that had that fgen forced band right along I-95 were correct, you would have done fine there. Given the setup, I always thought that would end up further west.

Snow growth definitely sucks in these bands behind the front. It's the same here with the radar- looks good but ground truth is underwhelming. Cold(dry) air advection.

Eyeballing a quarter inch drift on the deck.

Best snow of the day here now. Small flakes but bigger than pixie. Coming down "intensely". The 1-3 forecast is a bust but might get a decent coating if a few good bands pass through.

This event did not fail due to "warmth" in the lowlands. The cold came in right on schedule. Lack of precip at that point is the problem, and the 6z NAM kinda nailed that. Dead zone in between the better forcing to the west behind the front, and the slug of moisture that moved along/ahead of the front that was rain.

Ripping sideways pixie dust lol. Very light dusting. Maybe some of those bands to the west will eventually make it here. If they do the timing will be good. Temp is 31.

Some flakes flying here again after a bit of a sunny interlude. Temp still 32.

You are further east as well, and I wasn't glued to the radar earlier, but it looked like the best forcing/heaviest area of snow passed west of you.

Nice pics. That last one looks wind blown. I wouldn't think that elevation difference would make much difference in this situation. Your area got the best forcing and also good timing.

Where you are there is a decent chance for that as you already have some snow otg and the cold entrenched. My recent posts were more about the general setup and the tendency for the outcome to be underwhelming, despite those weenie snow maps everyone loves lol. I got exactly what I expected here. Maybe I can get a band or 2 come through that will whiten the ground a bit.

It's not completely done, but accumulating snow requires some persistent rates during the day now. Probably looking at periods of light to moderate snow. Best chance would be a late afternoon squall as the temps continue to drop. HRRR was suggesting that on earlier runs but I haven't looked at guidance recently.

Precip always moves out quicker than models depict in these situations. One reason I didn't post much and was skeptical even as the trends were colder sooner. Experience tells us how this ends up with a progressive/positively oriented trough the majority of the time. Sunny here now!