CAPE

But hey, tornado watch for another 45 mins.

It's all about yard. No one ever cares what happens in Philly or SW of DC when in-between there is nada.

Not here. Those creepy things don't do loamy soil.

We are highly proficient at failing at anything that is remotely interesting.

Another exciting severe weather day in the MA. Looking forward to the next super dry multi-day wind event. One thing we are decent at outside of heat and humidity.

12 drops here followed by some broken high clouds and sun.

Good thing I picked up a tenth of an inch with the early afternoon shower. Looks like I might see some leftover drizzle with this line.

Some of the CAMs and the ICON did well, with the best action over eastern PA into NJ with the remnant MCV, and a broken line SW of there.

This line has disintegrated to weak sauce, not that it was ever that impressive. Not sure I will see more than a sprinkle lol.

Looks like a pretty pedestrian broken line moving SE. I might be surprised, but I doubt it.

Thunder in the distance sounds serious. Extrapolating radar, with no additional expansion/development, I see the split for my yard.

What did you do?

Love me some original WWS. The bourbon barrel aged version is top notch too. Looking forward to the release of Utopias Barrel aged WWS in October. Probably won't be much around, so might have to take a trip to Milton.

I only had this once a couple years ago when I was in PA. Incredible. Was pricey, similar to WWS if not more. Not sure they are brewing this anymore. https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/28091/100566/

He seems to enjoy the dessert stouts.

Caught the edge of a storm that went mostly south of here, in Easton. Some decent thunder.

Just make sure its an imperial stout- with raspberries and peanut butter and cookies and cream.

There is an area of abnormally dry and even a patch of moderate drought just to your southwest on the latest update of the US Drought monitor.

The FV3, 3k NAM, RGEM and even the ICON are focusing much of the convection in extreme NE MD, N DE and SE PA with what looks to be the track of the MCV. Other storms fire to the south and southwest of that low, but more scattered.

Looking at the sounding here on the 3km NAM, that dry layer and the respectable low level lapse rates would seem to signal a damaging wind threat. DCAPE gets up over 900 for a time. Also some low level directional shear, thus a slight chance of a tornado. The most impressive parameter with this threat are the increasing wind speeds with height. The CAPE looks a tad skinny, but decent. My non-expert observations. Also predicting a fail for my yard.

Definitely not the same as last year for the coastal plain. I am over 5" for the month here but it seems dry. It has been pretty "normal" rainfall since May.

Regardless of what happens(or doesn't)today, the pattern for this weekend into next week will deliver some stellar weather. Probably doesn't get any better for early August as advertised. We will probably never see anything like this during winter.

Been 7 days with no rain here. Drought!

Interesting discussion from Mount Holly. Plenty of potential, lots of uncertainty. One of the more difficult warm season forecasts in recent memory for Thursday, with reasonable outcomes ranging from a largely uneventful day to a fairly high end severe weather event. Synoptically, northwest flow aloft continues. Surface low pressure is expected to track eastward through the Great Lakes in response to a southeastward digging shortwave propagating through the 50 to 60 kt 500 mb flow. Meanwhile, a convectively enhanced wave will likely dive southwest of us on Thursday. This wave will result from explosive convective development and likely derecho formation over the Midwest on Wednesday. This MCS/derecho will probably not be much of a factor for our region, either tracking southwest of us and/or not surviving this far in severe form. The SPC SWODY1 does extend a Marginal Risk into our Delmarva zones on the off chance it does make it all the way to the coast. This feature may also serve to deposit convective debris over our region, which would limit instability for new convection on Thursday. However, anvil level storm relative winds suggest this is unlikely, and that much of the convective debris will probably be shunted south of us. But the evolution of Wednesday`s convection and potential lingering debris and/or outflow boundaries will no doubt have some impact on Thursday. Another complicating factor is much of the guidance indicating fairly widespread but likely non-severe convection over our region on Thursday morning and early afternoon. This is likely in response to retreating high pressure, combined with surface convergence and increased low level moisture in response to a shift to southeasterly flow. This type of weakly forced convection is common in these regimes, and is a common failure mode for severe weather events. If early day convection is as widespread as much of the guidance indicates, I would be doubtful of the afternoon severe potential, especially in eastern portions of the area, even as the better forcing from the approaching mid-level jet and vorticity max arrives. With those caveats mentioned, the dynamics on Thursday are no doubt impressive, unlike any we`ve seen this year in terms of the potential overlap of instability, shear, and forcing if everything comes together right. 28.0z CAM guidance largely clobbers the region with severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening, but run-to- run consistency has been poor. Should several of those 0z CAM solutions (i.e. 3km NAM, ARW) and their associated forecast soundings come to pass, then a significant severe weather event with all severe hazards would be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Slight Risk of severe weather over much of the region.