CAPE

Should we start a thread? This looks serious.

Looks like a weak coastal low will form along the NC coast and head northward late Thursday into Friday as the "cool" HP to the NE slides off. Probably of little consequence other than right along the coast. The 3km NAM is the most enthusiastic with some heavy showers for the beaches and even a decent chance a bit further inland.

51 here Going to be a spectacular day.

You might just get your wish.

That post was a 5 day ens mean for the upper ridge. Look where the Euro op has the surface high by late next week. This would be nasty, and that trough/front to the west would have little impact this far east. Probably just wash out. The only storms would likely be terrain aided pulsers further inland for the most part. Hopefully the Canadians are more correct, and the ridge breaks down/ moves further east. I wouldn't count on it though.

Good synopsis of the upcoming period from Mount Holly- A typical summer pattern develops for the long term as a Bermuda High becomes established offshore and a slow moving trough develops over the Great Lakes. This is a classic southwest flow regime which is likely to be in place for at least several days beginning the end of this week and heading into next week. The result will be a transition from the dry and cooler weather during the middle of this week to a sustained warm and humid pattern, especially by the time we get to the weekend. From Saturday onward, we will mostly be looking at highs in the mid 80s to near 90. This is nothing atypical for the season, but combined with the increasing humidity, we may flirt with Heat Advisory levels at times during the period. Rain chances in this pattern are quite uncertain at the moment. It will depend heavily on how fast a cold front to the west approaches as Great Lakes troughing slowly moves eastward and/or starts to lift out. Model guidance has a spread of several days on when this front will move through, or if it even will at all as opposed to just washing out. My general thinking is that rain chances will gradually increase from Saturday onward, especially to the west, but that overall there will be a lot of dry hours through the period.

Not if this verifies. I would take the under, but it has zero for my yard.

0.30" today. Nothing yesterday. Going to be running the sprinkler over the next week the way things are looking.

My WAG is cool neutral. Official CPC ENSO forecast favors neutral conditions into the Fall. Beyond that who knows. Latest CFS v2 ensemble mean has neutral transitioning to weak Nina for Winter.

This is probably how it will go. WA ridge that sets up in that position this time of year usually flexes and doesn't break down too quick.

Similar to last week, a couple stellar days after today, and Friday should be nice too but transitioning to more humid.

Storms missed just north last night. Looks like any decent heavier showers will be just SE of my yard today. Might pick up a quarter inch, but the latest mesos look pretty pathetic for here lol.

0.00 I got to hear 2 rounds of thunder though as places literally a few miles north got hit twice.

We suck at severe. And anything else fun or interesting. Heat and humidity is our thing.

Looks like another bust here. Hopefully there will be some decent showers on the backside tomorrow morning. Otherwise its sprinkler time.

Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week.

Maybe

This wont help much out west.

Fwiw at this juncture, ENSO neutral conditions look to persist through Fall, and are favored to continue into winter. Not that it matters that much anymore lol. The ground truth differences between Nino-Nina-Neutral in winter are pretty ambiguous the last 5-6 years for the MA, east of the highlands. Exception being Mount PSU ofc.

89 here. Temps wont be busting low today.

After Met summer is over, we have extended summer for 2 more months, then Fall for 4 months until Spring returns.

Had about a 30 second downpour last evening that yielded 0.03". Heard a lot of thunder in the early morning hours but no rain from that. Some place nearby got something.

Yeah mine are older mophead plants I think, based on the color and pH dependency. I will pay more attention to pruning and cut back only a portion of the oldest branches in the Fall going forward. I think what I did last Fall was more aggressively cut everything back, and not really knowing what I was doing, it turned out to be the right thing given the age and the fact it had not produced blooms for multiple years.

Time to move discussion to the other thread. Maybe a few garden variety storms later as the front drops in. A quarter inch or so of rain would be nice. On to Tuesday I guess. As it looks now, timing might not be ideal.