CAPE

The thread title could use a little revising maybe. I simply identified this as a window for a possible sneaky wave behind the late week storm that had fail written all over it. I was already looking ahead. The Great CAPE storm is a little hyperbolic. (That one happened in early January. )

We do have a thread for digital snow. I suggested a while back that is the place they should be deposited until we have a discrete threat(and dedicated thread).

Ok, on to the Euro. The goal is to get back to a weak sauce storm.

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

Doesn't have to be a qpf bomb, at least for me. Rates and time of day matter more. The 12z/18z GFS simulations of yesterday had 4-6" (10:1) from the DC area across to central DE. I'd take that.

We have gone from this.. To this over the past few runs We may need a new player to show up lol

It is slightly better, so a small step maybe. Not sure we are going to get back to that earlier/deeper/wester dig of the NS energy like we were seeing yesterday.

So far looks more like 0z/6z than the 18z run yesterday.

27-28th actually

Probably a few more bad model cycles, then we get reeled back in with some "changes" in the interplay between key features.

Start a thread. One of 2 things HAS to happen apparently- we completely kill it with the dreaded jinx, or positive mojo/reverse jinx happens and we get buried.

I generally concur with this assessment. Last winter the impact of HL blocking was largely mitigated due to the complete lack of legitimate cold in our source region.

3 consecutive Ninas.. some here might need to consider therapy lol.

Don't forget the crappy GFS.

The Sunday-Monday window is a great example of why these ens mean snow maps are utterly useless at range. The ops are all over the place on the degree of interaction between the NS energy dropping down and the southern wave ejecting eastward from the SW. These differences are reflected among the ensemble members in subsets- in general if there is no/late interaction between the NS and the southern wave, it tracks generally eastward, there is not much cold, and almost no snow anywhere. Cold comes in behind. If the NS comes in deeper/further west, there is some degree of interaction/phasing and there is more precip and more cold. At this juncture we still have a lot of uncertainty, and the snow maps just average out the divided camps among the members. It tells you nothing.

We desperately need a moderate Nino with persistent HL blocking next winter. ENSO predicted to go neutral by late Spring, early Summer I believe.

Subtle differences in the character of the ridge and or location of the TPV can make fairly large differences in outcome. They interact. Waves in the atmosphere behave much like waves in the ocean, so if that amplified ridge 'leans' forward or breaks over, it will result in a deeper, more westward dig of the NS energy. The other critical aspect is timing. Again, without a block, the Rossby waves are constantly propagating (progressing), so getting the waves of interest to time up the way we need is more difficult.

18z was the last 'good' operational GFS run and this is why it worked- the NS energy drops in aggressively further west and lifts the southern wave, allowing the developing low to be further nw and gain some latitude as it moves off the coast. The second image below is the 0z(6z looks essentially the same) and the differences are clear. If you compare the two you can see the differences in the character of the ridge (follow the height lines), which influences the the digging NS vorticity.

The 0z runs of the 3 global ensembles still have a storm, a bit further south than we want- just like previous runs. Take a breath. As I said yesterday when the op runs looked 'good'- expect changes as the combo of the amplified ridge and the displaced TPV(and their interaction) is subject to volatility. There were unsurprisingly some generally subtle changes at h5 on the op runs last night that influenced the ultimate(simulated) outcome. The character of the western ridge and the degree to which the TPV lobe drops south were a little different. The ridge didn't 'fold over' so the NS energy on the Euro didn't dig nearly as much and was broader- so no constructive interaction/phase with the southern wave- which was weaker overall as well. GFS was also less aggressive with the vorticity lobe- not digging it as far south or far enough west to scoop the wave ejecting from out west. Instead it drops in behind it too late and kicks it out, then the cold comes in. On we go.

18z EPS looks a bit further south.

I meant for the cape storm. The thur storm has always been toast. Literally The op only goes out to hour 90 at 18z.

I think there is something to this honestly. Better off not going for the easy button. That applies to everything.

Euro 18z? Other thread if you are interested in seeing the 18z Euro op. I'll save you the trouble- you will like it. Rain for your yard.

Ok just finished my cast iron skillet seared grass fed Filet Mignon with a glass of red wine. Medium rare ofc. Lets see what HH EPS looks like.