CAPE

Low of 27 again.

^excellent post.

Snippet from NWS Buffalo AFD this morning- .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Continues... Two intense plumes of lake effect snow with snowfall rates of at least 3 inches per hour will continue northeast of the Lakes today and tonight. Thundersnow will remain possible near the lakes through tonight as well as blowing snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. With this update will shift the axis of heaviest snow off Lake Erie a few miles southward. Areas to the north of the City of Buffalo and the airport will likely receive little to no additional accumulation through the day. The heaviest snow will be along a line from Lackawanna and Hamburg inland towards West Seneca and Cheektowaga and Lancaster.

Low of 27. Coldest so far this Fall.

Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking.

That ramped up quick. The ground was bare with some light snow falling when I posted that link.

Thundersnow there already. Saw several flashes of lightning on that cam only watching for a few mins.

Happens all the time in November.

Snowing in Buffalo now. Looks to get serious pretty quickly.

Definitely Miller B flavor on the GEFS. Colder as the coastal gets going is implied, so maybe rain to snow deal.

That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front.

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

Oh its different aright lol.

You pay attention to them, but at this range you give much more weight to the ens runs to minimize the uncertainty associated with the deterministic guidance.

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.

Lame.

Actually the 1989 storm around Thanksgiving was the last significant Nov storm I recall. It was actually better for eastern areas I think- had a solid 6 inches here. We have had a few coatings here and there since but mostly we just fail lol. We due!

Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.

12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z in the big picture. Has a coastal storm with a decent look up top. It's not perfect but we rarely do perfect. The primary issue on the mean is not quite cold enough this run.

Volatile. Weeeeeee!

Close the shades y'all. It's over.

That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.

Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.