CAPE

That was a fun storm. Moved through quick though. Est. winds of 40-45 mph and lots of T&L. Only 0.33" in the rain gauge but it was going sideways so probably had a bit more. Maybe some general rain later tonight and into tomorrow. A half inch or so would be nice. Far cry from the 2-4" predicted a couple days ago.

Legit wind with this one. Damn.

Here comes the next one. Better trajectory.. This is the one that hit Crofton. It has held together pretty well.

Yet another near hit(a miss). Looking north from the end of my driveway.

Used to be that way here too lol. Its been probably average this Spring/summer, rainfall wise. Just missed on some good t-storms though.

I just wont some decent rain so I don't have to get the sprinkler out lol. Getting close to that time. Uncanny how many storms have just missed in the last few weeks. Getting loud cracks of thunder now, but not going to get any rain from this one. The one right behind it looks semi-interesting.

Lots of thunder. Initial stuff heading just to my NW, again. Lets see what this second line does. Might catch the edge of that one if it holds together.

Mesoscale Discussion 1139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Thu Jul 01 2021 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern WV...northern/central VA...DC...MD...DE...southeastern PA...and central/southern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 011545Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon, and one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Mid-level west-southwesterly flow over the Mid-Atlantic associated with an upper trough/low across Ontario, Quebec, and the Great Lakes is not as strong today compared to yesterday. Still, about 25-40 kt is present generally around 3-6 km AGL based on recent VWP estimates from area radars. An area of precipitation with embedded isolated lightning flashes extends from northeastern MD into eastern PA as of 1545Z. There is concern that this precipitation and its associated widespread cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates early this afternoon, particularly across eastern PA into NJ and vicinity. Still, there will probably be some clearing behind this initial activity, as evidenced by recent cloud breaks across parts of south-central PA. Better prospects for robust boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon will likely be realized across parts of northern/central VA into MD and the Delmarva Peninsula where clouds are less prevalent. Even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon across this region through diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass. Weaker destabilization, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1500 J/kg, will probably develop farther north into eastern PA and NJ owing to the influence of the ongoing precipitation. Storms will probably increase in coverage over the next couple of hours along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and into south-central PA as a weak/decaying MCV moves eastward from WV. 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will likely foster some storm organization, with multiple clusters likely moving eastward through the afternoon. The greatest threat for scattered damaging wind gusts should develop where heating of the boundary layer can steepen low-level lapse rates and encourage efficient downdraft accelerations.

The front should be sagging southward through the day. Looks like a low level jet develops too- but looks like it will be focused more over southern MD/eastern VA/lower eastern shore. Some of the CAMs have the best convection in that area. 0z Euro liked S MD over towards Easton and Cambridge. 2-3" +.

^those jip zones doe.

Yesterday the forcing was too far north/west. Today is the better day for more organized/widespread storms for the coastal plain. We shall see how it works out.

Been getting that over here too recently. Tired of hearing booming thunder just north or south and getting a few drops of rain.

Slight risk for I-95 east and southward. ...Mid Atlantic... Mid/upper flow and deep-layer shear along the axis of stronger destabilization within the surface troughing may be fairly modest to weak, at least initially. However, strengthening of southwesterly winds to 30-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer may be sufficient to contribute to one or two organizing clusters of storms by late this afternoon. Given the magnitude of the forecast CAPE, coupled with relatively steep low-level lapse rates, it appears that the environment will be conducive to potentially damaging surface gusts. This may be associated with locally strong downbursts initially, then with strengthening cold pools in upscale growing, northeastward and eastward propagating convection into this evening. I just want a dose of heavy rain, and maybe get a shot of a shelf to add to my collection.

I get wasps inside from time to time, but never this time of year when they have active nests. It's usually the overwintering ones and I see them in the house mostly in the early Spring. Killed quite a few in the house over the years and never been stung. They are more aggressive this time of year while nests are active. If you have nests on that side of the house, hit them with some wasp spray. If you kill them, they won't come (in).

Keep your window AC unit. This stuff will solve your bug problem. Apply it around that window. Leaves an invisible residue that will last a month or more outside. Being in the woods, this is a must have for me. I spray it around the perimeter of the house, on door sills etc. Kills everything. No odor. Can use it indoors too. https://www.domyown.com/suspend-sc-p-40.html

Yeah I would be surprised if anything makes it over here tonight. Lots of surface instability though and maybe cold pools/outflow can keep them going a bit longer despite loss of daytime heating. Tomorrow is the day as the actual front gets into the region with instability + better forcing.

Man that's a tough decision to have to make.

High of 93. Currently 88. Hella humid tho. The antithesis of UHI here, but we have corn sweat.

Looks like maybe a chance of scattered showers but mostly rain free, esp by afternoon. Should be at least partly sunny.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow into Friday per WPC. Trend on guidance has definitely been away from a slowly moving/stalling front. Good news, as the weekend looks to be mostly dry and Sunday looks especially nice. It should also lower the risk for heavy/excessive rains. Probably a general 1-2" with some locally higher amounts and some jip zones. The usual.

Did you notice how people don't hand wring over the LR when there is only heat and garden variety storms to track.

Enjoy that Firestone Parabola. It is outstanding. Sip it. Savor it.

Made it to 90 here today. Highest dp was 73. Not atrocious.

Drinking an Aslin Double Orange Starfish NE style DIPA for HH. Very good.

If it's marginal, and if the heat does not look to be prolonged(it doesn't) they may decide not to issue an advisory.