CAPE

Had a bit of sun early, but its been cloudy here since around 8am. Looks like it should start to clear up soonish.

12z 3km NAM has a hail producing supercell over your yard around dinner time.

If only we could all move at the speed of light in a vacuum.. time would slow down and we would barely age. Ofc for that to happen, it would require we have no mass, so what fun would that be?

Hangovers are to be avoided. I have had maybe 3 or 4 in my life. Try MSM flakes(not powder). Its magic stuff for skin, hair, joints, etc. Kala Health on Amazon. Take it everyday. Can get it as a lotion too. I use it after every shower. I am old but well preserved lol. I am a vain m'fer.

It's Friday. Good day to sip on something high gravity. Almost cracked open the 2014 120 min IPA, but since I had a fresh one, I went with that. I compared the bottles, and damn the aged one looks quite dark by comparison. It wont last much longer, and I will pick up a few more next time I head to the beach.

Mount Holly's take on Sat and Tues from the morning AFD- Deep layer shear will be supportive of organized severe weather with values of 35-45 kts. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching the region from the north and we should see some convectively enhanced vorticity maxima pass across the region from upstream convection as well. Long story short, Saturday could be active with potentially multiple rounds of convection which could last into the early overnight hours, but the details and confidence in timing of any hazards remains low. At this juncture, I believe the greatest threat with any organized storms would be damaging winds given the setup (northwest flow), but again confidence on the details is low. This setup will largely depend on how the upstream convection plays out later on today and tonight. SPC continues to highlight our entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms, but this may need to be upgraded to a higher risk level at a later time if and when the details on timing and placement become clearer. On Tuesday, the main trough axis and jet maxima will pivot across the area sending a strong cold front through the region from the west. Guidance seems to be quite consistent on the synoptic aspects of this system at this range (beyond the potential remnant tropical system interaction on Monday) bringing the cold front through sometime Tuesday. Expect that there will be a round of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe thunderstorms given that bulk shear will increase to favorable levels for organized convection. The exact timing and details on the evolution of this remains quite unclear though, and will likely be dependent on how the synoptic system and front interact (if at all) with the remnant tropical system on Monday.

Another gorgeous glorious beautiful morning. low of 54 here.

we all on fire.

Lets keep this pattern progression on repeat.

Looking warmer and progressively more humid beginning Saturday, with multiple chances of showers and T-storms through Tuesday via 2 frontal passages, and a few impulses moving along the stalled boundary that looks to set up to our south by early Sunday. Currently looks like any tropical remnants will pass to our SE. There is a chance of at least a few strong storms Sat with the front, and then ultimately the cold frontal passage early next week, depending on the timing. Behind that front it looks like we are in for another spectacular few days almost identical to what we are experiencing now.

57 here this morning.

That is an incredibly good stout. Top 3 or 4 for me.

You would like this one. The description suggests lots going on- chocolate, waffle cones, vanilla, peanut. Its all very subtle though. I notice the chocolate the most. At 8%, not exactly my idea of an Imperial stout, but it is well done and quite good.

Drinking a Choco Tuesday Imperial Stout for Tuesday HH.

A least one person will say this tomorrow and Thursday as well. A tad cooler with even lower dews.

There. I did a minor edit so no one else does.

C'mon now you know me lol.

Who cares if the structure of the storm meets the criteria for tropical. It's simply too far north!!

We should just throw out the criteria and arbitrarily name tropical systems. A tad too far north- this one seems kinda fake to me..

From MH AFD- Saturday will be a return to more typical summer mugginess with highs potentially approaching 90 and dewpoints rising well into the 60s. Naturally, given the high Theta-E airmass ahead of the cold front and increasing mid-lvl flow ahead of the shortwave, convection (potentially strong-severe) could be a concern if the timing of the best forcing aligns well with the diurnal peak in instability... which is still to be determined.

For what I teach it is mostly applied to AC circuits.

You have the positive peak nailed. March-April is when the larvicide goes in.

^that's pretty representative.

The 'bog' is dry until late next winter, barring some anomalous tropical monsoon. Even then it wont last. It is a function of the water table, which is on the negative half cycle of the sine wave now headed towards minimum, usually in early fall.