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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Thanks for the persistent reminders! I had almost forgotten since your last posts a few hours ago.
  2. CAPE
    Latest NBM. The 'enhanced' area of snow has shifted NW, likely influenced by the CMC and NAM.
  3. CAPE
    After the warm/wet storm late next week, we should be at least briefly colder in the wake, and there is a chance for something to ride the boundary next weekend. Can see the potential here on the GEFS.
  4. CAPE
    I have a feeling the 6z Euro will increase optimism for expansion of the blues.
  5. CAPE
    6z GFS still steadfast with the central VA jack, and better for S MD too.
  6. CAPE
    Be careful riding the 12k NAM/Canadian combo against the better guidance That said, I have expected a more expansive area of precip further NW. Need to see some movement in that direction by the GFS and Euro at 6 and 12z. The Euro actually has a decently broad precip shield- it just needs to juice up a bit.
  7. CAPE
    The worm has to turn at some point. Bad luck and all that, but climo says it should especially given areas south and east are now above average- and February is the time where it just seems to find ways to snow.
  8. CAPE
    The window for a period of moderate snow seems tied to this upper jet on the front side of the trough, with a ribbon of vorticity below at h5. Pretty impressive jet and the models might be underdoing the extent of the precip. I think the 1-3 area has a chance to be more widespread(expanded north) than depicted. The quest for more blues continues..
  9. CAPE
    I think we generally know what this is going to be, but I still think there is potential for some juicing up/expansion of the precip as we get closer. Could always go the other way too.
  10. CAPE
    Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues.
  11. CAPE
    Possibly, but also need a wave of some significance to be riding along that boundary.
  12. CAPE
    Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did.
  13. CAPE
    ICON snow map. Quite a shift north and juiced with the precip(not all snow) and the coastal is a factor. Too bad IT SUCKS.
  14. CAPE
    lol ICON. Who knows, once in awhile it figures something out.
  15. CAPE
    Oh stop lol. I decoded incorrectly.
  16. CAPE
    Misery loves company.
  17. CAPE
    Agreed, but it did move towards the better guidance this run.
  18. CAPE
    NAM trying with the coastal at the end lol
  19. CAPE
    Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface.
  20. CAPE
    I wouldn't mind that either, but the GFS has been a bit unsteady lately. Still think 1-3 seems reasonable, maybe a bit more down your way if the GFS has a clue.
  21. CAPE
    Consult with DT.
  22. CAPE
    A coating of snow on SB Sunday following a Spring-like Saturday would be lovely.
  23. CAPE
    Throw out the NAM, which is a complete outlier, (and should almost always be thrown out on principle) the preponderance of guidance suggests a minor event on the order of an inch to maybe as much as 3 in a few places. Any changes that occur going forward would probably be minor, with a better chance of it going the wrong way given the overall fast/progressive nature of the pattern.
  24. CAPE
    6z EPS is slightly west with the trough, and mean low position is slightly closer to the coast. Trough still positively tilted and results in the same general outcome.
  25. CAPE
    If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe.
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