CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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18z EPS a tad better than 12z, and surface is a bit colder than the op.
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Might go that way with a bit more amplification. As it stands 925 mb down to the surface is just a tad too warm. Decent rates and dynamic cooling could possibly overcome that.
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Dec we were chasing cold air. Snowstorms wasnt even a thought Until I spotted the light at the end of the crapola pattern tunnel.
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Closer but the air mass is pretty shit.
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Surface panels lagging on WB
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Lets see what it do
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18z Euro looking better at h5 for the Tuesday deal.
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Remember December?
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33 here. I think the precip just ended lol.
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Was wondering where you were. Everyone else seems to have lost interest lol. Admittedly there are issues, but it's not that far out of the realm of possibility.
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HH GEFS closer..
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Canadian mean- GFS/GEFS might be third string now with its recent performances.
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12z EPS suggests its not completely dead.
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2 losses in a row.
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So did Cohen's #machinelearningmodel
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A lot needs to change for this to be more than light rain/snow showers for the immediate coast.
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A little better than 0z. Not as good as 18z.
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58 and drizzle. Looks like the rain should pick up here shortly.
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Look at 500 mb vorticity and it's a busy mess with multiple positively tilted vort maxes. The low develops ahead of that elongated ribbon of vorticity in response to that trailing shortwave dropping in, and if you look further upstairs you will see a pretty strong jet streak out in front of that ribbon. That gives a more complete picture of why the low forms in that location and tracks ENE. I am looking at the 6z GFS btw.
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Temps are marginal, but there's a chance.
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That's why I will always say give me the cold and I will take my chances (with storms moving into it). It can work the other way, but less likely. Jan 3 was an example of that. But that was impressive cold pressing SE and perfect timing(for eastern areas). Got to have the cold in place, or nearby and on the move.
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Damn was it that long ago?
