CAPE

If anyone is bored or just having a beer and wants to watch it snow in Denver..

I saw that. Boulder I think. He still needs to change that screen name. For a second I thought the Broncos acquired Wentz.

50/13. Sky is brilliant blue.

They will see more snow in 3 hours than you've seen in 3 winters lol The last 3 winters have ranged from meh to pathetic, but still a total of 25". They might beat that for a storm total.

Sounds fun, although I am thoroughly enjoying our chilly desert-like day. With synoptic forcing increasing throughout the morning, showers and storms will fill in across southeastward Colorado. With the mid to upper level flow turning to the southeast, these showers and storms will move north-northwestward towards the urban corridor and foothills. Given the strong synoptic forcing and elevated instability, moderate to heavy precipitation will fill in during the late morning across our entire forecast area east of the Continental Divide. Soundings indicate the elevated lapse rates will be greater than moist adiabatic meaning thunderstorms, including thundersnow, will be likely east of I-25. The trickiest part of the forecast today will be the snow amounts during the day across the urban corridor and areas immediately to the east. There will certainly be heavy precipitation rates and with good lapse rates, snow ratios may be close to 9 or 10 to 1 as dendrite aggregates fall towards the surface. However, ground and road temperatures will remain relatively warm as temperatures have been above freezing all night tonight so some melting is expected early on. But once a heavy snow band or two moves over an area, the snowfall rates should be enough to overcome the surface warmth and create accumulations on the ground.

42 here. Time to venture out into the desert air... properly moisturized!

Dry as a bone here, outside of the low spot back in the woods. I am guessing you have drainage issues due to grade and/or poor artificial drainage in a development.

Been awhile since we have had fire weather danger headlines around here.

It hasn't rained in what, 2 weeks? Pretty amazing stretch given how wet it has been here for months. Much needed. Driveway is solid again and the wetland back in the woods has shrunk quite a bit. Less area to seed with mosquito larvicide.

The very dry air mass combined with westerly winds (downsloping) will allow for efficient mixing conditions and dewpoints should fall solidly into the single digits by this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm well above guidance into the low 50s in most locations with mid to upper 40s farther north across the higher terrain. Resulting relative humidity values will be in the teens across most of the area for much of the day, uncomfortably dry. For further discussion on the Fire Weather concerns, please refer to the Fire Weather discussion section below. What? Bring it. I will be outside most of the day. I will moisturize so my skin doesn't start to flake off.

Eye high and 101 mph.

The Canadians and Europeans are remarkably similar at h5. Pretty solid look. Get ready up on Mount Manchester.

0z Euro op had rain changing to snow Friday as the low tracks off the coast. EPS suggests that is a possibility. CMC/GEPS are very similar. GFS/GEFS is warmer and all rain. Has more NS energy involved and less ridging over the top.

Latest AFD Denver/Boulder- ...POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY... Despite some of the wild gyrations we`ve seen in model guidance, the overall plan with this storm is still the same. In fact, the latest EC and GEM ensemble data suggest about the same evolution, if not slightly higher totals, than previous runs. The EC ensemble average is now up slightly to about 1.8" liquid equivalent for Denver, the GEM remains at ~2.4", while the GEFS was down to about 1.8", following the lead of the wildly erratic GFS. The bottom line is that the value of the ensemble data is huge in this storm, and we`ll be keeping the forecast relatively unchanged at this point and favoring the EC ensemble blend. This storm has everything going for it, including infusion of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture, a pronounced TROWAL, a persistent period of moderate to strong QG lift, long duration, and strong upslope as long as the 500 mb low tracks across east central/southeast Colorado. So far, most model averages (not the 12Z NAM and GFS) are still sticking with the upper low tracking from near the Four Corners into southeast Colorado, putting northeast Colorado in a very favorable area for strong lift, upslope, and heavy snowfall. We`ve overall kept the forecast relatively unchanged for this event with 14 to 24 inches for the I-25 Urban Corridor, with locally heavier amounts possible toward Boulder and Golden depending on exact track and evolution of the storm, of course. Foothills should see 2 to 4 foot totals with the heaviest favoring Larimer County. Again, any slight change in track could result in much higher/lower amounts. The 10-90% snowfall graphics represent this uncertainty well, with bottom end (10th percentile) 10" amounts along the I-25 Corridor but the 90th percentile showing amounts near 30". Foothills areas go as high as several feet in the 90th percentile, or worst case scenario!

Its a porter, so its a bit "thin" compared to a barrel aged stout. I thought the flavors were all well balanced though. I got the hint of maple, vanilla, and the bourbon. Nothing was overwhelming, which I thought was good. No it isn't a GI BCS by any means, but it is well done and very good in its class.

Good stuff.

I am going with a high gravity selection from DFH...shocker. No, not the 120. Fruit-full Fort.

Boone or Blowing Rock area. Major micro climate. You would get snow there, and beautiful country for hiking etc, but there isn't much else.

GFS has like 5-8" across Denver(a foot just west)..aggressive warmth advecting in from the SE then a bit of a dry slot, meanwhile Euro and CMC are colder with the milder air confined to SE CO, and Denver proper gets crushed with 25"+.

RG3 is looking for work.

Lots of issues-

His name has come up a lot when considering possible trades for a WR. I think he would be too expensive for the Ravens.

I will in certain situations. No colds, no nasty norovirus- had that 2 years in a row in 2017-18. Masks work, and getting really close to people you don't know is kinda weird too when you think about it.