CAPE

Oh look, a low grade troll with a boring shtick.

Drinking a Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA. A classic. Been ages since I have had this. So similar to DFH 90 min IPA. Both are outstanding. This is a bit more dank imo. DFH is higher abv.

It will have been over land for quite a stretch before it arrives at our latitude, so it likely will start the transition to ET. Could regenerate again when/if it emerges offshore of the DE/NJ coast.

HH GFS a bit further NW and stronger/more consolidated.

Sounds fun! Looking forward your photos and vids.

The underrated ICON is rock steady with its solution. Almost identical to previous runs, but gets good precip a tad bit further NW. Solid hit for I-95 and east.

A 'southwestern' hardscape is the answer!

lol no. All guidance must be considered though. And Elsa will be rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it approaches our latitude. What's the JMA got?

18z NAM barely has a drop of rain here lol.

Nastiest day of the summer so far here. High of 92 with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Currently 90.

Latest AFD From Mount Holly on Elsa- Overview: Tropical Storm Elsa will move over, or just east of our area Thursday night into Friday morning, with additional storms possible Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. A brief break in active weather is expected on Saturday behind the front. Details: Guidance has continued to shift slightly west with the track of Elsa, with the consensus track now taking the low over portions of Delmarva and then into NJ Thursday night into Friday morning. Given this shift in track, the threat to our area has increased and thus a tropical storm watch is in effect for coastal NJ, southern Delmarva and adjacent marine zones. Regarding impacts, much will still depend upon the exact track and structure of the system when it reaches the area. Most of the TC phase-space diagrams would indicate the system will likely be in at least the early stages of ET by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently we could begin to see some of the typical structural changes that accompany ET, including a more asymmetric wind field, and the heaviest rain axis shifting just left of center. This naturally complicates the forecast, however given the current track would expect that Tropical Storm force winds would largely be confined to the immediate NJ/DE coasts (and adjacent waters), with the heaviest rainfall largely focused along I-95 and points SE. That being said, any further westward shifts would bring stronger winds further inland and shift the heaviest rainfall axis further inland. Given the potential for 1-3 inches of precipitation (with locally higher amounts not out of the question), have elected to issue a Flash Flood Watch with the afternoon package... it currently encompasses the entire area, given the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of rainfall.

You really should head down.

Basically confined to SE VA. Gusts to 40 on the lower MD Eastern shore and S DE are not a big deal. I am sure I'll manage with the 22 mph gusts.

I did a multiquote in the other thread. He only has like 6 posts so maybe he is a very occasional poster or just passing through. Besides, I have talked to enough lawn 'experts' to know the situation here is futile.

There is precedent.

Yeah this is my official adjustment.

Tornado risk here with this track.

Per WPC, there is Slight risk of Excessive rainfall for eastern areas late Thursday into Friday- basically along and east of the Bay.

73 here.

Since the sun and it's heat input is the ultimate driver of the earth's climate, it makes sense to look to the tropics. We know the SSTs in the tropical Pacific (ENSO state) historically has major impacts on jet stream position and strength particularly during winter with larger air temperature differences, but there seem to be other factors at play recently. Hadley cell expansion is one possibility.

She looking pretty healthy on radar.

Might as well monitor the QBO, another index whose teleconnections to important stuff like HL blocking is nebulous at best. The experts tell us that when it trends negative heading into Fall and winter good things can happen. So, it went negative in June. Trend, friend. QBO @ 30 mb 2021 10.19 8.92 9.75 5.25 0.31 -6.93

There better be significantly less pollutants today than there were back then, with all the measures in place to reduce sources of air pollution/emissions. That said, we can still get days where the pollutants are of high enough concentrations for air quality alerts, as was the case today for some parts of the region. The air was relatively stagnant with a temperature inversion, and not much mixing for much of the day. That is conducive for haze in a hot air mass with significant water vapor content. Last week even though the upper ridge was more impressive, the lower part of the atmosphere was well mixed, and drier air tended to work in during the afternoon.