CAPE

Looks warm and humid for the first part of the week. With a trough to the west and a ridge overhead, Tuesday will probably feel like July, with temps pushing 90 in the usual warmer spots.

56 this morning. Today will be much different than yesterday. Probably 80 or so.

Late week looks like a well offshore fish storm on the latest op runs and ensembles. Best chance of some decent rain will be mid week with the cold front. If that fails it may be time to get the sprinklers out.

How's the May snow lookin? Outside of maybe Canaan, and even there it usually isn't a big deal, odds of May snowfall is pretty much a zero for everywhere in the MA. I don't think the faux hand wringing over random silly op GFS runs is really necessary tbh, lol.

We really need another bomb cyclone sometime soon. Hopefully such a thing is still possible.

Just cracked open a DFH BBA WWS, after being outside doing yard work on this very pleasant day. Those who think it was "too cold/too windy" will be begging for a day like this 6 weeks from now.

Someone should start a thread. Not sure why exactly, but this has been posted in 3 different threads this morning.

This is the third thread I have seen reference to this, this morning lol. And this here thread is now obsolete.

^ A big coastal storm makes some sense I guess, as the blocking over Greenland is breaking down at that time. Archambault!

If the sun angle never got any higher than it is now, I might get my grass to actually survive here lol. As it is, I am at the beginning of peak lawn, which will last about 5 weeks before the wilting to thatch/burning to hell period begins.

Plenty of shredded leaves and small tree debris all over the place, but not seeing anything major. The strongest winds here occurred overnight. Winds have died down significantly this morning. Currently 45 and breezy. Looks like a pretty nice day for yardwork. Mid/upper 60s and super low dews.

Looks like the HL blocking(-NAO) will hang on for another week, then break down. Not that it means a whole lot this time of year- it can still get pretty warm with a block. The anomalous vorticity lobe rotating down and inducing this wind event is related to that h5 pattern though. With the pattern change, there will likely be less of the coolish (pleasant) days with NW breezes, and more frequent bouts of warmth and humidity by mid month. Ofc it largely depends on the location and strength/persistence of the upper ridging going forward.

Hearing some thunder. This should be the leading edge of the stronger winds. Latest from Mount Holly- A strong perturbation, now evident on moisture- channel imagery over the Great Lakes region, was sampled at 500 mb in the Upper Midwest with an attendant 90+ kt jet streak surging southeastward. The 500-mb temperatures were quite cold for this time of year near the center of the low, with readings near or below -30C in northern Michigan into central Ontario. Intense 850-mb cold advection was occurring in the Great Lakes region and is racing southeastward into the Appalachians this afternoon. A band of showers in advance of the aforementioned perturbation had developed in the central Appalachians and will likely move through portions of the area late this afternoon and early this evening, especially for the southern half of the CWA. Nudged PoPs upward just a little bit more, based on upstream radar trends. With 40-50 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer, would expect strong to locally damaging wind gusts in proximity to these showers. Synoptic-scale winds will then surge for a time after the stronger cold advection sweeps across the area this evening, collocated with intense surface- pressure rises behind the reinforcing front late this afternoon. Models have trended slightly lower with gusts this afternoon/evening, but they also have verified on the low side so far today. As a result, continued to forecast winds higher than guidance, with the peak timing generally 21z to 03z with a diminishing trend thereafter as the surface pressure rises gradually lessen. All of this said, the high wind warning was unchanged with this update, with numerous impacts expected across the region.

At least as it stands now, he would be paid pretty well in 2022.

Ravens picks were solid. Filled 2 needs. Love the potential of Oweh. Amazing athlete with elite speed and ideal size to come off the edge. They likely will still sign a veteran edge rusher and a RT after the draft. They will probably target secondary help and OL with their third round picks tonight.

Wind is ramping up here.

BYOB at the Pub in Easton. Good as always. Won't be eating much of anything the rest of the day.

The high impact winds will develop later this afternoon and persist into tonight. Hoping the 60 mph gusts in my forecast don't materialize. I have enough outside stuff to do without having to clean up tree debris. At least the soil is pretty dry.

Pretty impressive looking vorticity lobe at h5, and pressure gradient between the deepening low moving off the Maritimes and high pressure building in from the NW.

Mount Holly is still bullish on the damaging wind potential as well. A strong weather system remains on track to affect the region on Friday. We are expecting very windy conditions from early Friday afternoon through much of Friday night. Gusts over 45 mph are likely, and gusts to near 60 mph are possible. Scattered instances of downed trees and power outages are also expected, especially given many trees are now bearing leaves. This will likely be an impactful event. Very little change in the forecast philosophy this cycle. A cold front will be offshore by Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough and associated vort max will rotate through the region during the afternoon hours, which will also send a reinforcing cold front through. This is a dynamically impressive system, with very strong height falls expected in the local area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The approaching shortwave and good jet dynamics will also yield rapid intensification of low pressure departing into the Canadian maritimes, with its pressure dropping near to below 980 mb. At the same time, high pressure will be moving into the Great Lakes, which combined with the deepening low to the northeast will create a very strong pressure gradient, maximized over the mid-Atlantic.

Yes we do wind. It almost never underperforms. Latest discussion from Mount Holly- West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as the day progresses, especially into the evening hours, as the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels through at least the early evening. Additionally, the vorticity maxima will cause tropopause folding down to around the 500 mb level, which is often indicative of very steep lapse rates. These factors are expected to preclude any question regarding the unfavorable timing of maximum wind fields during the evening hours (less of the typical diurnal mixing). Just about all of the 00Z guidance suite indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-50+ kts, which are likely to mix to the ground in the form of frequent wind gusts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts increasing to the 45-55+ mph range during the evening hours. Sustained winds are forecast to peak in the 30-35 mph range near the coasts and in the higher terrain north and west. At this juncture, Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (45 mph or greater) appear likely, especially from around 2 PM Friday through around 2 AM Saturday across most of the area. We`ve issued a High Wind Watch for this period given the potential for wind gusts of 55- 60 mph for a few hours, mainly during the evening (7 PM through midnight). Additionally, potential exists for greater impacts than a typical solid Wind Advisory event owing to the green up and foliage on most trees in the area. Falling trees or tree limbs may bring down power lines, potentially resulting in scattered power outages. This will be a very long duration (~12 hr) high wind event, with potentially significant impacts to the area.

@frd ninja'd me on the wind potential. Reading the thread is sometimes good.

We do heat, and we do wind.. The stronger synoptic low and cold front will approach the area Thursday night as the initial main trough axis races quickly from the Great Lakes late Thursday and then offshore by Friday morning. impressive height falls will result in a rapid intensification of the surface low as it moves off the New England coast by midday Friday. Southwesterly winds should start to increase overnight Thursday night as the surface low draws near. This will keep temperatures mild as well, with lows around 60 degrees. The strong cold front looks to cross the area around daybreak Friday with temperatures and dewpoints falling in its wake. In the wake of the front, a secondary vorticity lobe (stronger than previously expected) is forecast to dive quickly south across the region. This will be accompanied by a low-level surge in cold air advection as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten behind the departing and intensifying low. West to northwesterly winds will increase substantially as a result, especially into the evening hours, as mid-level height falls and cold advection will support efficient mixing to the 850-900 mb levels. Models indicate winds speeds in these levels during this time increasing to 40-45+ kts. Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph by the afternoon hours, with gusts potentially increasing to the 45-50+ mph range during the evening hours. At this point, a Wind Advisory seems probable for at least some if not most of the area, but given the major shift in the forecast, confidence is not particularly high on the details of this strong wind threat at this time. We will continue to monitor this threat.

J-hot J-hot A-hot S-less hot O-warm this is how we roll.