CAPE

Rolling in here now. Wind is pretty impressive. Lots of T&L.

79/69 here. Heavy rain and frequent lightning would be cool. Severe wind and hail can go elsewhere.

Drinking a Citra Renaissance Hazy IPA from Black Flag. Pretty good stuff. As a single hop, this isolates the aroma and flavor contribution of the Citra hop variety.

I was in Reisterstown yesterday so I got to 'experience' the brood. They were flying all around, with the constant eerie background noise emanating from the distant woods.

There were always 2 fronts advertised to come through- one tonight, and the stronger one tomorrow night. Even with that it has been fine here today, although it clouded up this afternoon. Upper 70s.. and yesterday was beautiful once it cleared up late morning. The nicest stretch will be after the second front clears Tuesday AM. Tues through Thursday should be within a degree or 2 of 80, with low dews. Friday will warm a bit ahead of the next front, but still be comfortable in the mid 80s with slightly higher humidity. Looks like Sat may approach 90. Pretty nice 5-6 day stretch around these parts for mid June.

Looks like we could see a decent shot of rain with the frontal passage late Mon into Tues, but have to watch this trailing shortwave dropping in. GFS wants to pop a coastal low in response to that. As of now it looks to stay mostly south, and we get into a really nice air mass mid week into the weekend.

Sun popped out here. Temp up to 70.

63 and cloudy here. Need some sun.

no drought for you.

Agree. The area in front of the house and on the north side is almost completely moss. I just mow over it occasionally to whack down the random weeds that grow through it.

Yeah that was my thinking. The clover is prolific here, and I need it anyway lol. I don't have that much grass. I welcome the moss too, wherever it wants to grow.

Exactly how mine looks, and last time I cut it was Memorial day. But I have decided to let it grow longer anyway, in an attempt to get it to survive the next several weeks. I will cut it later tomorrow or Sunday, but only to around a 4" height.

lol Its a great site. Pretty darn accurate. Had my yard dead on with my rain gauge. Super hi res. I zoomed way in on my area and could see how the gradient went from about 1.5 to 2.5 inches from my driveway up the road a mile or so.

Epiphany Maine IPA for HH.

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

1.45" here since Wed afternoon. No complaints.

It would just look pretty much the same, but no green. Early Feb a couple years back.

Euro has done fine. The nature of the airmass/weak steering flow the prior days was such that no global model was going to perfectly nail the locations that were deluged. It has actually been darn near spot on for my yard though.

Looks like a stellar run of weather ahead, especially behind the cold front that will move through early next week. Cool mornings, low dews, sunny days with highs around 80.

0.80" today. 1.16" total since yesterday.

Discussion- ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic... A broad and slow moving mid/upper level trough will result in scattered to widespread convection today from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic. The environment will be conducive for very heavy rainfall rates. PWs are above the 90th percentile, and wet bulb zero heights ranging from 12-14k AGL are pretty much as high as you will see in early June over this region. Thus efficient warm rain processes will likely dominate today/tonight. Instability is likely a limiting factor for depth/intensity of cells...however the aforementioned moisture parameters would still favor shallow low topped cells capable of very heavy rain rates. The other limiting factor is longevity of cells at any one location...as cells should generally pulse up and down rather quickly. The weak instability potentially restricting the coverage of heavier cells, and the short lived nature of most cells, may prevent a more widespread flash flood risk today/tonight. However slow cell motions and heavy short duration rates will likely still be enough to result in scattered flash flooding. There is certainly some potential for a more widespread and significant event today over portions of WV and VA given the efficient environment in place. A backdoor front dropping southwestward will be a convective focus today, potentially helping sustain a corridor of cell mergers...as it interacts with terrain induced cells and slow moving cells downstream of the front. The event today/tonight has Moderate risk potential over portions of WV/VA...but a bit too much uncertainty on the coverage/magnitude of impacts to go with the upgrade at this point. At the minimum we are expecting isolated to scattered flash flooding today. At the worst we could be dealing with more numerous flash flooding, some of which could be locally significant. We will continue to monitor trends through the day.

looks ready for the old bay and vinegar.

Ensembles have been advertising this pattern for awhile now, and its still looking good. Hard to beat an h5 longwave look like this for the middle part of June.

From Mount Holly AFD- Several hires CAM`s are indicating that the storms will evolve in sort of three waves. The first, has basically already occurred with storms that developed across DelMarVA. These storms began to interact with each over and one ended up having its outflow run into a developing updraft producing several funnel clouds over Delaware this afternoon. The outflow boundaries from these storms will start to propagate north across SEPA and central Jersey through the rest of the afternoon as the forcing remains weak over the region. Heading into this evening the cold front should eventually start to slide south out of NY and will become the trigger for the third round of convection this evening and overnight. The good news is that precipitable water values should decrease considerably tonight behind the cold front. Thus, expect the risk for heavy rain to decrease by late this evening.