CAPE

This might be worth keeping an eye on. The wave looks to dampen as it moves east(when have we seen that before lol) but there is a little something showing up on the GEFS. That trough over the NE is on the move so with some timing maybe there is just enough(and not too much) confluence for it to work.

I need to move to Canaan so I can giggle when Mt Manchester cracks 50 in late Feb.

38.992238, -75.854096 Don't come for me. I have knives and shit.

I feel like I have missed some shit today. Just got home and given all the rain, I am surprised how much glacier cover I still have here. My yard is the local flatland equivalent to Mount PSU. Anyway it rained it ass off today, but I never bothered to clean the glacier out of my rain gauge so it reads 0.00. I will have to check some local reports.

Probably a bit of snow or snow/rain mix before changing to rain over here. I am in Easton, so might not see any snow here.

That's what happens with a low to the NW and a high to the east. You will be ok out there. That strong sw flow aloft is partly responsible for giving you those nice dendrites.

I don't care for the look on the means, but I suppose it could improve. Again the synoptic setup as advertised is pretty hostile for eastern portions of the region.

Has the look of another inland deal- maybe as far west as the highlands. Meh.

The idea of declaring an end or packing it in has always seemed silly to me. There are at least 3 more weeks where it can reasonably still snow in most of this region. I am not thrilled with what I see on guidance for here over the next week or so, and so my interest level is pretty low, but beyond that, who knows. I will enjoy the generally nice weather this week(after tomorrow) and go from there.

Canadians or bust.

Feels nice out on the deck with southern exposure. 33 here, but if I stay up close to the house and out of the breeze, it kinda feels like it's close to 50. The sun angle is legit now.

Lack of true cold hurt much of the time, and then there was bad luck/timing with the block that led to suppression/shredding of waves that could have been good events for southern/eastern areas. I guess I cant complain too much. I have just over 12", which is more than 12 times the snow from last winter lol.

Yeah I get that, but it's still tough to overcome the southerly flow ahead of it on the coastal plain. It is possible the GEM/RGEM have the right idea, and that would work out pretty well for Baltimore proper even, and maybe get a little snow here.

You could see a coating to an inch in your hood if everything times out right, but this is clearly a northern tier deal. My temp will probably be 36 before the precip even arrives, so maybe some mangled flakes for a few mins.

Cold ground isn't the issue. It's the rapidly warming low and mid level temps with the southerly flow. Might be a little better if we could invert the Low and High position.

C'mon this is a helluva setup for the lowlands.

NAM got this. Looks completely reasonable too given the setup.

NAM > HRRR 23 to 15 lol

22 here. Still have not had a temp in the teens this winter, even with low dewpoints, clear skies, and almost no wind several times- and some snowpack this time. Perfect radiational cooling conditions. This area always radiates very well in these situations, with zero UHI influence and not in close proximity to the bay. In this case maybe it is stale polar air that sat over the central US for days and moderated before heading east. eta- went out to grab some firewood, and there is a stiff breeze. Not as calm as I thought.

Wed looks glorious. Under full late Feb sun too. Condolences to those protecting their snowpack.

I really wanted to break out the Bart Scott gif here, but I will resist.

Sure it wasn't 2018? What you are describing sounds exactly like the Equinox storm that year.

I teach automation, so I know way too much about all the control aspects, the sensors, the signals, calibration and testing, and the redundancy in these systems, yet I still need to be a tad boozed up or pop a benzo to fly lmao.

We have them at the school where I work. Some are cutaways. A couple LM2500 engines and an Allison. The engineering involved is just insane. A layperson has no concept. Impressive even for an engineer.

We teach a gas turbine course for ships at the school. The dude who teaches it is incredible, and I always ask him his thoughts on failures when they occur. He is from the aviation industry, but the engine is the same on a GT powered ship.